Say no to radical reforms: Why Modi must ignore his cheerleaders

‘Push for aggressive reforms, the incrementalist mindset won’t do. This Budget is the best opportunity you have. There is still some positive vibe for the government in the air; six months or thereabouts on it will vanish. So get cracking this session, you might not have another chance.’

This has been the consistent message from the class of the articulate and the well-heeled echoing across television studios and other media circles for the last many days. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised them a radical break from the economics of the past, the time has come for him to deliver.

Take the grand theory of growth and its heal-all properties out of it, and it’s a fair demand from a pressure group. After all inflation is down, fiscal deficit is under leash, crude prices are drastically down globally and the investor sentiment is upbeat about India. The timing is just right; if you don’t do it now, then when? Valid point. But it is only one among many on the vast negotiating table that is the democracy. Can the government in power ignore all others while taking a call on policy matters?

In an ideal situation, the answer should be no. It’s one thing demanding things while in opposition and quite another when you are in power. Once you come to power, you shift from the demand side to the supply side of things. What you can deliver is limited and a good government is one which strives to find the best balance among several pressure groups.

Seen from the perspective of those in power, to be aggressive is to be foolish. Every action has its consequences. As this piece is being written there’s news that anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare will hold a three-day agitation against the government’s land ordinance. There’s massive mobilization of farmers in the states and they would be converging on Jantar Mantar to express their displeasure at the way the government has succumbed to pressures from the industries and corporate sector. Most non-BJP parties have extended support to it. This is the first major agitation against the government and by all indications this will be big, if not now at some point later.

“What’s the problem if we don’t have the numbers in Rajya Sabha, if need be we can summon a joint session and clear the ordinance,’’ said one of the senior ministers something to this effect with an air of casual disdain for the resistance from those in the opposition a few days ago. Is it really that easy Mr Minister? His remark not only reflects the hubris of numbers but also the irreverence for the power of the streets. Assuming the government finds the numbers to clear its ordinance, can it guarantee that it would not be immutable or discardable in future? No.

A situation like this neither serves the interest of the pressure groups nor of the party in power. Which party can survive in India after ignoring the interest of the farmers and the poor? The Delhi results should be a reminder. The pressure groups cannot operate with ease in an environment of resistance and instability. With due respect to their well-tailored suits, impeccable manners and good English, they must understand the democracy better; they must emphasise on a broad political consensus for the reforms process. It means instead of investing everything in one party, they should try to convince many others about the reasonableness of what they want.

This is a must if they want to ensure that the policy regime remains stable and is not delivered jolts with every change of government, which is neither good for the business and investment environment nor for the long-term growth prospect.

A pragmatic politician, Prime Minister Modi has probably understood the limitation of his party’s grandstanding by now though the party itself, speaking through its spokespersons, continues to appear arrogant. This explains his latest efforts to reach out to political rivals – his presence at Saifai for the wedding ceremony of Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh’s grand nephew Tej Pratap is as effective a signal as they come. Despite the big claim of a Congress-mukt Bharat, the government is reaching out to the Grand Old Party now for support in Parliament. He has sent out a strong signal to the disruptive Hindutva forces too.

His sobering down is a good signal; the next step should be to lower down the high expectation of the cheer-leading class. He must convince them that reforms cannot be shoved down the throats of people; shock therapy is fine in theory but in alert democracies like India it can unleash reactions in immeasurable ways. He can tell them gradualism is perfectly fine.