 "Women's World Cup 2025 scenarios: How India, New Zealand or Sri Lanka can clinch the last semi-final spot")
The Indian women’s cricket team is still alive in the race to the semi-finals of the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 despite suffering three back-to-back defeats against South Africa, Australia and England. The eight-team World Cup is being played in a round-robin format in the first stage, with the top four teams qualifying for the semi-finals.
South Africa (10 points from six matches), Australia (nine points from five matches) and England (nine points from five matches) have already qualified for the last four stage, with just one spot still to be confirmed. Three teams, including India, New Zealand and Sri Lanka, are still in contention for the remaining one semi-final spot.
Bangladesh and Pakistan have been knocked out of the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 after securing just two points each from six matches respectively.
ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 scenarios
India, New Zealand and Sri Lanka have four points each, but the Lankans have played six matches already, while the Women In Blue and White Ferns have two matches remaining, respectively.
India - 4 points, 0.526 NRR
India face New Zealand in their next group game in Navi Mumbai on Thursday and Bangladesh on Sunday. Harmanpreet Kaur’s India would qualify for the semi-finals by winning both their matches. Winning two matches will take India to eight points, which neithe New Zealand nor Sri Lanka can surpass.
A victory over the White Ferns will also be enough, even if they drop their final game of the league stage. A win over New Zealand and a loss against Bangladesh would leave India with six points, and they would be the only team at the tournament that can finish with that points haul and a total of three victories.
New Zealand - 4 points, -0.245 NRR
If New Zealand win both their remaining matches, against India and England, they will finish on eight points and qualify for the semi-finals.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsA win against India, coupled with a loss to England, will need the Kiwis to rely on Bangladesh to defeat India on the final day, and their net run rate finishing higher than Sri Lanka (or Pakistan defeating Sri Lanka).
Sri Lanka - 4 points, -1.035 NRR
Sri Lanka have to defeat Pakistan in their final group match to have any chance of sneaking into the semi-finals. They will also require India to lose both their matches against New Zealand and Bangladesh, for the White Ferns to lose to England, and for their net run rate to finish higher than the Kiwis.
In the event of teams finishing on equal points in the league stage, the ordering of teams will be decided in the following order of priority: The team with the greatest number of wins in the league matches will be placed in the higher position.
If there are teams with equal points and equal wins in the league matches, then in such a case, the teams will be ordered according to their net run rate (NRR) in the league matches
If two or more teams remain equal, they will be ordered according to the result of the head-to-head match played between them (points, then, if still equal, NRR in those matches). If the above does not resolve the league ordering, or if all matches within the league stage produce no results, the teams will be ordered as per their original league seedings.
That means India would own the tie break over New Zealand, and potentially Sri Lanka, with a win over the White Ferns and a loss to Bangladesh.
If India lose to New Zealand and then defeat Bangladesh, they will be relying on England defeating the White Ferns on the final day of the league stage to sneak into the final four.
If India lose both of their remaining matches, they will be out of contention for the semi-finals.
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