 "WTC final scenarios: Can India still qualify if they lose to Australia?")
India and Australia are set to lock horns in a blockbuster five-match Test series Down Under, starting with the first Test in Perth on 22 November. The Border-Gavaskar Trophy series has the added significance of being part of the 2023-25 World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, and it’s all to play for as far as the spots for the WTC 2025 final is concerned.
India slipped to second place in the latest WTC standings after their 0-3 Test series loss to New Zealand at home , with defending champions Australia taking top spot from India. Australia have a points percentage (PCT) of 62.50, whereas India’s PCT slipped below 60 after their Test series loss to the Kiwis, 58.33 to be exact.
Sri Lanka, New Zealand and South Africa are the other three teams in contention for the WTC final, but our focus will be on India and Australia, and their chances of qualifying. Remember, India have made the final of the first two editions of the WTC, in 2021 and 2023, going down to New Zealand and Australia respectively.
Before we take a look at the scenarios, here’s a quick glance at the WTC standings:
World Test Championship 2023-25 standings
| Position | Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Draw | Point deductions | Points | Points percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 90 | 62.50 |
| 2 | India | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 98 | 58.33 |
| 3 | Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 55.56 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 54.55 |
| 5 | South Africa | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 54.17 |
| 6 | England | 19 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 93 | 40.79 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 27.50 |
| 9 | West Indies | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 18.52 |
WTC 2025 final scenarios
India
Remaining Tests: Five Tests vs Australia (Away)
A 0-3 Test series loss to New Zealand has left India needing to do a lot against Australia in Australia. Sure, their last two Test tours Down Under might favour India, but this is the time for the visitors to forget history and make it count by performing as a unit. Because for India to qualify for the WTC final without asking other teams for favours, they have to beat Australia by at least a margin of 4-0 in the Test series. Sri Lanka (55.56 PCT), New Zealand (54.55 PCT) and South Africa (54.17 PCT) are third, fourth and fifth respectively.
A 4-0 win over Australia will take India’s PCT to 65.79. If New Zealand beat England 3-0, the Kiwis’ PCT will be 64.29, which should be enough for India to go through.
India can still finish with the second-best PCT of 53.51 even if they lose to Australia 2-3. Australia will have a PCT of 58.77 and finish first in the standings.
This is if New Zealand play out a 1-1 draw against England, and South Africa draw 1-1 against Sri Lanka and Pakistan. The Sri Lanka-Australia series should also end 0-0 in this case.
Australia
Remaining Tests: Five Tests vs India (Home); Two Tests vs Sr Lanka (Away)
Australia have seven more Tests remaining in the ongoing WTC cycle and winning five of those will ensure themselves a spot in the final. Basically, all Australia need to do is beat India 5-0 and a spot in the WTC final will be theirs. But that is easier said than done.
If Australia manage to beat only by a 4-0 margin, then the Pat Cummins-led outfit will need to beat Sri Lanka 1-0 in order to seal qualification for the WTC final.
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