How can India qualify for WTC final after losing first Test against New Zealand?

Rohit Sharma-led Team India went down to New Zealand by eight wickets in the first Test that concluded in Bengaluru on Sunday. A horror batting collapse in the first innings, when India were all out for 46 on Day 2, resulted in the hosts’ eventual surrender of the Test in the ‘Garden City’. Day 1 of the first Test had been completely washed out due to rain.

New Zealand, led by a century from Rachin Ravindra (134) and a knock of 91 from Devon Conway responded strongly in the first innings, scoring 402 and taking first-innings lead of 356 runs. India, led by centurion Sarfaraz Khan (150), scripted a spirited fightback.

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His century, along with knocks from Rishabh Pant (99), Virat Kohli (70) and Rohit Sharma (52) led India to 462 in the second innings, but a lead of 106 runs was never going to be easy to defend.

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Jasprt Bumrah struck in the first over of the chase, removing Tom Latham (0), before dismissing Devon Conway for 17 in the 13th over. New Zealand were 35/2 when they lost Conway, and Will Young (48*) and Rachin Ravindra (39*) made light work of the chase, sealing the deal in 27.4 overs.

Despite the loss, India remain on top of the World Test Championship (WTC) standings with a points percentage of 68.06 (98 points) whereas New Zealand jumped up to fourth place with a win percentage of 44.44 (48 points).

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But what are India’s chances of qualifying for the WTC final at Lord’s next summer after Sunday’s loss?

Updated WTC standings

India’s WTC final chances explained

Team India will play seven more Tests in the ongoing cycle of the WTC. This includes two more Tests against New Zealand in the ongoing series, and that will be followed by a five-match Test series against Australia in Australia later this year.

India had a points percentage of 74.24 before the first Test against New Zealand, but that has significantly dropped to 68.06. Australia stay in second place with a points percentage of 62.50 (90 points).

In order to ensure qualification for next year’s WTC final at Lord’s, India need to win at least five out of their remaining seven matches in the ongoing cycle. They must also ensure that teams like Sri Lanka (Third place, 55.56 per cent points), New Zealand (Fourth, 44.4 per cent points) and even England (Fifth, 43.06 per cent points) do not catch up to them. Having said that, India cannot afford to lose more than two more matches in the ongoing WTC cycle.

Even four wins and two draws will work for India regardless of other results as they would have 67.54 percentage points. South Africa can reach 69.44 percentage points if they win their remaining six matches, but Australia can only reach 64.04 percentage points if they lose one to India and draw two. This means South Africa and India will finish as top two.

The second Test between India and New Zealand is scheduled to get underway in Pune on 24 October, whereas the third Test will take place in Mumbai from 1 November. The five-Test series between India and Australia will commence on 22 November, with the first Test commencing in Perth.