 "WTC Final scenarios: How India can qualify for summit clash after heavy defeat to Australia in Boxing Day Test")
Team India’s hopes of making a third consecutive World Test Championship (WTC) final took a hit following a heavy defeat to Australia in the Boxing Day Test at Melbourne on Monday. Having been set a target of 340 on Day five of the fourth Test on Monday, India were dismissed for a meagre total of 155.
Only Yashasvi Jaiswal (84) and Rishabh Pant (30) managed to register double figures scores in India’s run-chase. Pat Cummins (3/28) and Scott Boland (3/39) shared six wickets between them whereas Nathan Lyon finished with figures of 2/37. Mitchell Starc and Travis Head collected a wicket each.
The win helped Australia take a 2-1 lead going into the fifth and final Test, which will be played in Sydney from 3 January to 7 January. Australia remain in second place with a points percentage (PCT) of 61.46, whereas India stay in third place, with their PCT having slipped to 52.78. With South Africa having qualified for next year's WTC final at Lord’s, just the one spot remains to be sealed and it will be either India or Australia who will face the Proteas.
World Test Championship 2023-25 standings
| Position | Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Draw | Point deductions | Points | Points percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa (Q) | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 88 | 66.67 |
| 2 | Australia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 108 | 61.46 |
| 3 | India | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 114 | 52.78 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 81 | 48.21 |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 45.45 |
| 6 | England | 22 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 22 | 114 | 43.18 |
| 7 | Bangladesh | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 45 | 31.25 |
| 8 | Pakistan | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 30.30 |
| 9 | West Indies | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 24.24 |
How India can qualify for WTC final after Boxing Day Test loss
Their 184-run loss to Australia in Melbourne has complicated things for India as far as their WTC final hopes are concerned. It’s no more a straightforward route for Rohit Sharma and Co, meaning that they have to depend on other teams to do favours for them. Needless to say, India should win the fifth Test in Sydney to have any hopes of qualifying for the WTC final. That would level the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series 2-2.
In such a case, India will need Sri Lanka to beat Australia 2-0 at home in their Test series early next year. India will have a PCT of 55.26 in this scenario, whereas Australia would have a PCT of 54.26. Should Australia lose one match and draw another against Sri Lanka, the Pat Cummins-led side will have a PCT of 56.48.
Should Australia draw or win the fifth Test against India, they will confirm their spot in the 2025 WTC final, knocking India out of contention.
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