T20 World Cup semi-final scenarios: Have India qualified after beating Bangladesh?

Team India secured yet another comfortable victory in the Super 8 stage of the 2024 T20 World Cup, trouncing Bangladesh by 50 runs in Antigua on Saturday. This was the Men in Blue’s second win in as many matches in the Super 8 stage, and their fifth overall in this edition of the T20 World Cup, following their three wins in the group stage. One match, against Canada in Florida, was washed out due to rain so India finished the group stage as table toppers with seven points.

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Bangladesh had won the toss and opted to field against India, with the Tigers making one change as Taskin Ahmed did not play. India, meanwhile, went ahead with an unchanged side that clinched a 47-run win over Afghanistan.

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Skipper Rohit Sharma (23) and Virat Kohli (37) were off to a brisk start but the former was dismissed by Shakib Al Hasan in the fourth over. Kohli, who is yet to score a fifty in this year’s tournament, showcased some attacking prowess with some fine strokeplay but Tanzim Hasan Sakib cleaned Kohli up in the ninth over.

Suryakumar Yadav, who slammed a six off the first ball he faced, could not do much to rescue the Men in Blue after he was caught by wicketkeeper Litton Das off Tanzim Hassan’s delivery. India were further restricted to 108/4 in the 12th over following Rishabh Pant’s dismissal, but a fifth wicket half-century stand between Hardik Pandya (50*) and Shivam Dube (34) eventually led India to 196/5.

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In Bangladesh’s reply, wrist-spinner Kuldeep Yadav made full use of his opportunity as he went onto finish with figures of 3/19. Jasprit Bumrah (2/13), Arshdeep Singh (2/30) and Hardik Pandya (1/32) also stepped up with crucial contributions. Skipper Najmul Hossain Shanto (40), Tanzid Hasan (29) and Rishad Hossain (24) were the only notable performers for Bangladesh with the bat as they were restricted to 146/8.

Have India qualified for the T20 World Cup semi-finals?

Before we get onto the scenarios, let’s take a look at the Group 1 points table

The win over Bangladesh took India to the top of Group 1 standings in the Super 8 stage of the 2024 T20 World Cup. India now have four points from two matches, with Australia in second place with two points from one match. Afghanistan and Bangladesh, in third and fourth place, are yet to open their points tally in Super 8 stage.

While India and Bangladesh have played two matches in the Super 8 stage, Australia and Afghanistan have only played one match.

Australia take on Afghanistan in the second match for both teams in Kingstown on Saturday night (Sunday early morning in India). At the moment, India are not yet through to the T20 World Cup semi-finals. However, the Men in Blue will advance if Australia beat Afghanistan later on Saturday, irrespective of the margin of victory.

That means both India and Australia will have four points from two matches each, and even if either Afghanistan or Bangladesh win their face off on Monday night, it will only take the winners to two points from three matches.

However, things will get interesting if Afghanistan stun Australia. In fact, if Afghanistan beat both Australia and Bangladesh in their final matches, that would take their points tally to four. However, in that case, the Rashid Khan-led side must hope that India beat Australia on 24 June. That would mean India and Afghanistan go through with six and four points respectively.

Bangladesh, on the other hand, find themselves in a much difficult situation. They have lost both their matches thus far and a win over Afghanistan will only take them to two points from three matches. Again, even Bangladesh are dependent on India to win their last Super 8 match against Australia. They would also need Australia to lose to Afghanistan as well and beat the Afghans in their last match. This will mean that Australia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh will have two points each and it will come down to the Net Run Rate on who will qualify as the second team.

India may somewhat have one foot in the semi-finals at the moment, but should Afghanistan beat Australia, that would bring the group alive and India cannot afford to lose to Australia in that situation.