T20 World Cup: Have India qualified for Super 8s? Are Pakistan out?

India beat Pakistan by six runs in a nail-biting contest of the 2024 T20 World Cup in New York on Sunday. One of the most-anticipated matches of this tournament, rain threat was prevalent ahead of the game and toss was delayed by 30 minutes. The start of match was delayed even further by another 45 minutes, but despite a rain break, spectators were able to witness a full game.

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The Men in Blue were asked to bat after Pakistan won the toss. Barring Rishabh Pant’s knock of 42 and a cameo from Axar Patel (20), there was nothing significant from India in the batting department, with Naseem Shah (3/21) and Haris Rauf (3/21) helping Pakistan restrict India to 119.

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Having started brightly, Pakistan succumbed to the rising asking rate in their chase. Jasprit Bumrah (3/14) was the orchestrator with the ball, whereas Hardik Pandya (2/24) and Arshdeep Singh (1/31) supported him. Axar Patel (1/11) got the wicket of Usman Khan in the 11th over.

As it happened |    India vs Pakistan, T20 World Cup 2024, Group A match in New York

Pakistan were eventually restricted to 113/7 from 20 overs. This was their second defeat in as many matches, following a Super Over loss to co-hosts  the USA.

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This loss leaves Pakistan in grave danger of missing out on the Super 8s stage, with only the top two teams from each of the four groups progressing.

So, what’s the qualification scenario like for both India and Pakistan from Group A after their clash in New York? We take a look:

Scenarios

India

Remaining matches: vs USA (12 June); vs Canada (15 June)

India already have one foot in the Super 8s stage, having won two matches to get to four points. However, it’s tight at the top of the Group A standings. USA (four points) have a Net Run Rate of +1.455, whereas India, with same number of points, have a NRR of +0.626.

Should India beat USA and lose to Canada, then India will have six points from four matches. In that case, the Men in Blue can still qualify even if Pakistan beat both Ireland and Canada. If India beat both USA and Canada, that would mean they maintain their perfect 100 per cent record and ease into the Super Eights.

In such a scenario where India go down to USA and get the better of Canada, they will have six points and ensure qualification to the next round, since no other team would be able to get to six points. USA and India will become the teams to qualify if that happens, and India will qualify as A1 even if they finish second, due to the team seedings.

On the other hand, surprise losses against both USA and Canada would not mean doom but would hurt Rohit Sharma and Co’s chances.

Pakistan

Remaining matches: vs Canada (11 June); vs Ireland (16 June)

Pakistan have suffered massive setbacks with two losses in as many matches. They are in fourth place with zero points and a negative NRR of 0.150. Chances of making the next stage look slim, given that even two wins would give them four points.

If Pakistan win their remaining matches, they will need other results to go their way. Pakistan will hope either India or USA suffer defeats in both their remaining matches and Canada also suffer the same fate. Also, Ireland cannot win more than a match because if Ireland win both matches, that would take them to four points.

Simply put, both of their next matches are must-win, and by a convincing margin to boost the NRR, for the Gary Kirsten-coached side. One more defeat will bring curtains down.