T20 World Cup 2021 scenarios: India's semi-finals qualification scenarios after Afghanistan win

Opening batsman Rohit Sharma hit a blistering 74 to set up India’s first win at the Twenty20 World Cup with a 66-run drubbing of Afghanistan on Wednesday as Virat Kohli’s team avoided a shock early exit. The Indian batting finally fired with Sharma and KL Rahul, who made 69, putting on 140 for the opening wicket to guide India to 210 for two in their must-win Super 12 game in Abu Dhabi. The tournament’s highest total proved too much for Afghanistan who finished on 144-7 in 20 overs. They still remain in the hunt for the semi-finals along with New Zealand and India. Pakistan have already secured their place in the last-four from the group. With a 66-run win over Afghanistan, India got their Net Run Rate to a positive, from -1.609 to +0.073. But there is still a long way to go for India to qualify for the semis. Here are the different scenarios for India to qualify for semis: New Zealand vs Afghanistan match becomes crucial here. India would need to win big against Scotland and Namibia and then hope Afghanistan beat New Zealand. Assuming that New Zealand will beat Namibia, India, New Zealand and Afghanistan, all three will then be on six points and the team with a better run rate will sneak through. This is why winning big against Namibia and Scotland is crucial for India as Afghanistan have a good run rate of +1.481 and New Zealand have a better run rate than India at +0.816.

New Zealand really just need to beat Afghanistan and not lose big to Namibia. Or just not lose to Namibia at all, which is of course very plausible indeed.

— Bertus de Jong (@BdJcricket) November 3, 2021

In an ideal case, they would want Namibia to beat New Zealand and New Zealand to beat Afghanistan by a relatively low margin. This will bring India and New Zealand equal on points at 6 if India win against Scotland and Namibia. As New Zealand’s run rate is much lower than Afghanistan’s it would be relatively easier for India to get past their’s run-rate. Assuming that the Kiwis are favourites to beat Namibia, If New Zealand beat Afghanistan as well, then India’s campaign will be over as the Kiwis will be having 8 points with those two wins while the maximum points that India can reach are only six. With inputs from AFP