WTC Final Scenarios: What India and Australia need to do to face South Africa in summit clash at Lord's

The race to the ICC World Test Championship final is nearing its end. South Africa have already sealed one of the two available spots after defeating Pakistan in Centurion last week, and will be aiming finish on top of the standings when they take on the Shan Masood-led side in the second and final Test in Cape Town starting Friday.

As for the other spot, defending champions Australia are locked in a tense battle with two-time runners-up India in a virtual shoot-out, and the fifth and final Test between the two sides that will be getting underway in Sydney on the same day as the second South Africa-Pakistan Test could end up deciding who South Africa’s opponent will be in the summit clash that takes place at Lord’s in June.

Before the New Year’s fixtures get underway, we take a look at the qualification scenarios for both India and Australia:

How India can qualify for a third consecutive WTC final

After suffering a 0-3 whitewash against New Zealand at home and conceding a 2-1 lead to Australia with a 184-run defeat in Melbourne on Monday, the equation is fairly simple for the Rohit Sharma-led Indian team – they will have to win the fifth and final Test against the Aussies in Sydney in order to keep their hopes of featuring in a third consecutive WTC final alive.

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A draw or a loss – either of which will help Australia regain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy after eight years and defeat India in a Test series after a decade – will ensure Pat Cummins’ men finish above them.

However, even if India do pull off a series-leveling victory in the ‘Pink Test’ at the Sydney Cricket Ground against all odds, they will still be reliant on other factors for them to finish above the defending champions on the WTC table.

How Australia can keep their reign as Test champions alive

Australian skipper Cummins will be backing his team to secure their qualification for the WTC final with a win in Sydney. However, a defeat to India that results in the visitors maintaining possession of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) will not be the end of the road for the Australians.

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In such a scenario, Australia’s two-Test series in Sri Lanka will end up deciding which team faces the Proteas at the ‘Home of Cricket’.

If they lose the Sydney Test against India, Australia will simply need one victory in Sri Lanka for them to advance to the final. The only way the Indians will be able to progress is if Australia fail to win either match against the Lankans after losing in Sydney.

Can Sri Lanka still advance to the WTC final?

Though the focus has been on India and Australia in the race to the WTC final, Sri Lanka aren’t mathematically out of the competition yet.

For them to reach the final of an ICC event for the first time in 11 years, not only will they need the Sydney Test to end in a draw, they will then have to pull off the improbable task of completing a 2-0 sweep of the Aussies at home.