WTC Final Scenarios: Can India keep their hopes alive with a loss or a draw in MCG Test against Australia?

India’s chances of pulling off a third consecutive Test series victory in Australia took a major hit over the course of the last three days after the Aussies posted a commanding 474 on the board after opting to bat in the fourth Test in Melbourne and later restricted the visitors to 164/5 at stumps on Day 2 . Things then went from bad to worse on Day 3 of the ‘Boxing Day Test’ at the MCG after senior wicketkeeper-batter Rishabh Pant threw his wicket away in the most inexplicable fashion in the morning session. Pant was joined in the dressing room shortly after by senior all-rounder Ravindra Jadeja.

By the time ‘Jaddu’ made the slow march back to the pavilion, India were seven-down with 221 on the board, needing another 53 to avoid a follow-on. Australia had bounced back in style in Adelaide and Gabba after suffering a 295-run thrashing in the series opener in Perth. The Pat Cummins-led side collected a 10-wicket victory in the pink-ball Test at the Adelaide Oval to level the series, and were in the driver’s seat at The Gabba when incessant rain came in their way and allowed the Indians to escape with a draw.

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Australia had failed to enforce the follow-on at The Gabba due to a spirited fight-back from the Indian middle and lower order, and it was no different at the ‘G’ on Saturday. All-rounder Nitish Kumar bringing up his maiden Test century to help India not only avoid follow-on but motor past 300 and eventually ending the day on 358/9.

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Though Australia still have the upper hand, the Reddy-inspired fight back will have given the Indians the belief that they actually can pull off something special from here and even travel to Sydney for the final Test with a 2-1 lead.

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But what happens to India’s hopes of featuring in the third consecutive World Test Championship final if they lose the ongoing Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, or play out a draw for that matter?

What happens if India lose at MCG

If India end up losing the fourth Test at the venue where they had registered a victory in each of their last two tours of Australia, thereby allowing Cummins and Co to move into the lead for the first time in the ongoing series, they will have to win the final Test in Sydney and retain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy with a 2-2 scoreline if they are to have a fighting chance of qualifying for the WTC Final.

In that scenario, neighbours Sri Lanka can do India a favour simple by winning the two-match Test series against Australia. Any other scenario will ensure Australia confirm their participation in the marquee clash at Lord’s in June.

What happens if India and Australia play out a second consecutive draw?

In case of a draw in Melbourne, India will have to ensure they avoid a defeat in Sydney if they are to keep their hopes of qualifying for the WTC final alive.

While a draw in Sydney will require Australia to avoid a series defeat in Sri Lanka for them to advance at India’s expense, an Indian victory will only make it all the more difficult for the Aussies, who then will have to whitewash the Lankans 2-0 for them to qualify.