Women's T20 World Cup 2024: India's qualification scenarios explained after six-wicket win against Pakistan

India opened their account in the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup on Sunday after defeating Pakistan by six wickets in Dubai.

Two days after suffering a 58-run humbling at the hands of New Zealand at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium, the Women in Blue came up with a much better performance against arch-rivals Pakistan.

Not only did they barely allow the Fatima Sana-led side to cross the century mark, they paced their chase well to achieve the target with a little more than an over to spare.

Pacer Arundhati Reddy led the way with a haul of 3/19, a performance that got her the Player of the Match award later, and was well-supported by leg-spinner Shreyanka Patil as India restricted Pakistan to 105/8 after the latter opted to bat.

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Opener Shafali Verma later scored 32 off 35 deliveries and shared a 43-run second-wicket partnership with Jemimah Rodrigues (23 off 28) that helped the 2020 runners-up recover from the early dismissal of Smriti Mandhana (7).

As It Happened | India vs Pakistan, ICC Women's T20 World Cup match in Dubai

Skipper Harmanpreet Kaur later chipped in with a handy 29 not out off 24 deliveries that took India within touching distance of the target, but retired hurt when her team was just one hit away from victory.

All-rounder Sajeevan Sajana walked out to bat and sealed India’s victory with a boundary off the only delivery that she faced.

Pakistan had begun their campaign with a morale-boosting 31-run victory over Asian champions Sri Lanka, the team India face three days from now, also in Dubai. The defeat at the hands of the Women in Blue, however, has suddenly complicated their chances of reaching the semi-finals.

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As for the Harmanpreet-led Indian team, here’s how they can reach the semi-finals of the tournament after collecting the first win of their campaign:

If India win both of their remaining matches

While India got two points to their name after beating Pakistan, they remain at the fourth spot in Group A for now with a Net Run Rate (NRR) of -1.217.

Pakistan continue to sit one spot above at third despite having as many points from as many matches, thanks to their NRR of 0.555, thanks to their sizeable margin of victory over Sri Lanka.

India had the opportunity to give their NRR a big boost after finding themselves at 79/2 at the end of 15 overs, needing 27 to win off 30 with eight wickets in hand.

Had they gone slam-bang at that point and gone past the target with around three overs to spare, they could have narrowed the gap with Pakistan even further.

With their net run rate still in the negative, India will be hoping to win both of their remaining games in order to give themselves a shot at making the T20 World Cup semis for a fourth consecutive time.

However, simply winning both games might not be enough, given New Zealand (+2.900) and Australia’s (+1.908) NRRs that has put them in the top two spots.

And even winning both of their remaining games is easier said than done, given one of those teams is six-time winners Australia. And Sri Lanka too had beaten India in the Asia Cup final recently and will be backing themselves for an encore.

If India win one and the other ends in a loss

It’s not as if losing one of their two remaining games will result in a group-stage exit for the first time in eight years. However, the path to the semi-finals will become even trickier, and skipper Harmanpreet and coach Amol Muzumdar will be spending quite some time with a calculator in their hands.

Given their current state, it is unlikely India will finish the group stage with a positive NRR if they end up losing one of their two remaining matches. However, the only way they can reach the next stage is if the match they win is by a massive margin, enough to get it on the positive side.

At the same time, India will be hoping no more than one team in their group finishes with more than four points, which would be the maximum they can collect in this scenario. Or five, if India win one and the other somehow ends in a ‘No Result’.

They will thus be hoping one of New Zealand or Australia lose three of their remaining four matches, preferrably with big margins, and that Pakistan don’t win more than one of their two remaining matches.

If India lose both of their remaining matches

Losing both their matches would mean India end their campaign with three defeats in four games, virtually making it impossible to reach the playoffs from that position and likely resulting in a bottom-of-the-table finish.

Such a scenario would mean India remain stuck on two points and Australia finish ahead with at least four points. And given New Zealand and Pakistan square off in the final Group A match of the tournament, at least one of them will finish on four points — or both could finish on three each in case of a washout, which is highly unlikely in the UAE at this time of the year.