WTC Final Scenarios: How India, Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka can qualify after latest results

The race to the ICC World Test Championship final just got a lot more interesting over the last three days, with England, Australia and South Africa defeating New Zealand, India and Sri Lanka respectively. Australia briefly regained the top spot from India with a clinical 10-wicket victory in the pink-ball Test in Adelaide, bouncing back in style after suffering a 295-run hammering at the hands of the Indian team in Perth.

Australia’s win at the Adelaide Oval was preceded by England thrashing New Zealand by 323 runs in Wellington to surge ahead of the Black Caps to the fifth spot on the table. Ben Stokes and Co were already mathematically out of contention for next year’s final – which will be taking place at the Lord’s in June, and ensured New Zealand will be watching that game from the sidelines as well.

More from First Cricket News

India vs Pakistan Asia Cup Match LIVE Updates: Amid boycott call, Men In Blue get ready to face arch-rivals in Dubai BCCI defends decision to play vs Pakistan in Asia Cup months after Pahalgam attack: 'If we boycott...'

South Africa, however, greatly boosted their chances of making their maiden appearance in a World Test Championship final after narrowly missing out last year, thrashing Sri Lanka by 109 runs in Gqeberha on Monday to complete a 2-0 sweep, and dislodge Australia from the top of the table in the process.

Here’s a look at the updated WTC table after the latest round of matches along with the qualification chances for South Africa, Australia, India and Sri Lanka, the teams that are still alive in the race to the final:

Impact Shorts

More Shorts

'Won't require surgery...': Real reason behind Jasprit Bumrah's absence from 5th Test revealed in new report

PCB bans players from WCL over India-Pakistan match controversy

South Africa (Rank 1)

Matches left: 2 (home)

PCT: 63.33

While the race to next year’s World Test Championship final is still open with none of the teams assured of a spot in the top two just yet, it would be safe to assume that the Proteas are on the verge of confirming their ticket to London for the showdown at Lord’s in June, thanks to their 2-0 sweep over Sri Lanka that helped them leapfrog past Australia to the top spot.

With two home Tests to go, both against a Pakistani team that currently lie at the seventh spot after a mixed run in the 2023-25 cycle and are already out of contention as far as the final is concerned. And winning just one out of their remaining two Tests will guarantee Temba Bavuma and Co a spot in the final.

Australia (Rank 2)

Matches left: 5 (3 home, 2 away)

PCT: 60.71

The reigning Test world champions reignited their hopes for a second consecutive appearance in the WTC final after thrashing India in a little over two days in the day-night Test at the Adelaide Oval. The Pat Cummins-led side suddenly appear to have the upper hand as far as the remaining three Tests of the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy are concerned.

And given they will be travelling to Sri Lanka for a two-match Test tour after the current series against India, the Aussies will be hoping to extract maximum points from those matches in order to remain in the top two. Simply winning two out out of the remaining three games against Rohit Sharma’s men will ensure Australia qualify regardless of the outcome of the Sri Lanka Tests.

India (Rank 3)

Matches left: 3 (away)

PCT: 57.29

India had arrived in Australia needing to win the series by a 5-0 or a 4-0 margin if they were to qualify without having to depend on others, thanks to their 0-3 drubbing at the hands of New Zealand at home that complicated their chances of reaching a third consecutive final. The Indians had briefly moved back to the top spot after thrashing Australia in the series opener in Perth, only to slip two places after suffering a reversal in Adelaide.

Also Read | Team India short-changed by Rohit, Kohli and senior bowlers in Adelaide humbling

Under the current circumstances, two wins and a draw in their remaining Tests against Australia would be enough for Rohit Sharma and Co to seal their place in the summit clash as they would then assures themselves of at least a second-place finish with a PCT of 60.53 per cent. If they win two and lose one, they can still go through so long as Sri Lanka hold Australia to at least one draw.

A 2-3 series defeat, however, will make it extremely difficult for India to secure a top-two finish as they will then be dependent on the outcomes of the Sri Lanka-Australia and South Africa-Pakistan series, meaning they will remain in a state of uncertainty long after surrendering the Border-Gavaskar Trophy for the first time in seven years.

Sri Lanka (Rank 4)

Matches left: 2 (home)

PCT: 63.33

Like South Africa, Sri Lanka too are alive in the race to the WTC final and have exactly two home Tests left to play in the current cycle. The two teams, however, couldn’t find themselves in more contrasting positions after the events in Gqeberha, where the Proteas completed a second consecutive 2-0 sweep. While South Africa are on the verge of sealing their place in the top two, Sri Lanka find themselves one game away from dropping out of the race altogether.

The Dhananjaya de Silva-led side had greatly boosted their hopes of featuring in the final of an ICC event after 11 years with a 2-0 sweep of New Zealand at home, only to suffer a reversal in South Africa. Even if they complete a 2-0 sweep of Australia in their final assignment of the current cycle, they will finish with a PCT of 53.85 per cent, which will leave them heavily dependent on other results for them to scrape through, including the unlikely scenario of South Africa losing both Tests against Pakistan.