How PBKS, MI and RCB can secure top-two finish in last two league matches of IPL 2025; scenarios explained

Just two games are all that are left in the league phase of the ongoing season of the Indian Premier League . Punjab Kings host Mumbai Indians at the Sawai Mansingh Stadium in Jaipur on Monday while Lucknow Super Giants host the Royal Challengers Bengaluru at the Ekana Cricket Stadium, their home ground, on the following day. Three of the four teams involved in the last two games will be in action in the playoffs with LSG being the odd team out.

Former champions Gujarat Titans remain on top of the points table for now but will be dislodged by at least one of the three teams in action in the last two days of the league phase, after suffering heavy defeats against eliminated sides Lucknow Super Giants and Chennai Super Kings in their last two games.

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Which teams will square off in Qualifier 1 by securing a top-two finish?

Ahead of the final league matches of the season, we take a look at various possible outcomes and which teams could finish among the top two:

Punjab Kings: The Shreyas Iyer-led side have made it to the IPL playoffs for the first time in 11 years and only for the third time in the world’s biggest T20 league’s existence. A washout will suffice for them to reach the IPL final for only the second time as they will then go level with GT, who finished the league phase with 18 points, and have a superior Net Run Rate (0.327) compared to the Shubman Gill-led side (0.254).

In such a scenario, MI will play in the Eliminator and they will have to wait for the result of the LSG-RCB game to find out whom they face in Qualifier 1. The Kings, however, will ideally be hoping to storm into the playoffs on the back of a win. Additionally, Jaipur isn’t likely to receive any rainfall in the next three days, meaning a washout appears unlikely for now.

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Royal Challengers Bengaluru: Like PBKS, a washout will suffice for RCB to secure a top-two finish as they will then go level on points with GT, whom they have a slight NRR superiority (0.255) over. And by the time captain Rajat Patidar walks out for the toss in Lucknow on Tuesday, they will have already known which team they are likely to face in Qualifier 1 if they are to win later in the evening.

Like Jaipur, Lucknow isn’t likely to witness any rain on the match day in its final match of the 18th IPL season, meaning a washout isn’t likely to happen in RCB’s case and they will have to finish the league stage on a high for them to get two shots at reaching the playoffs.

Mumbai Indians: The only way the five-time champions will get to play Qualifier 1 is if they defeat PBKS in Jaipur on Monday and finish the league stage with eight wins in their last nine games. A washout, which appears unlikely, can only get them to 17 points.

A victory, on the other hand, will get them to 18 in which case they will be guaranteed a top-two spot as they have the best NRR (1.292) of all the teams this season. They will then have to wait until the LSG-RCB game on the following day to find out who their Qualifier 1 opponent will be.

Gujarat Titans: Given one of PBKS or MI will be finishing ahead of them on the points table on Monday, the only way Gill and Co will get two shots at reaching the final is if LSG, the team that defeated them twice this season, do them a favour and defeat RCB in the final league match of the season.

The Titans could have sealed a top-two spot had they defeated either LSG or CSK in their last two games. Instead, they will have to sit and watch the last two games on television sets in their hotel rooms to learn their fate.