Will Zelenskyy win an election if Ukraine voted today?

Ukraine’s constitution prohibits holding elections while martial law is in effect.

Since the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, martial law has been continuously extended in 90-day increments with the consent of parliament.

As of July this year, lawmakers approved the sixteenth extension, keeping martial law in place until at least November 5, 2025.

A presidential election had originally been expected in March or April last year. That vote did not take place because of martial law, leaving the country without a new electoral mandate.

Under normal circumstances, Ukraine’s president serves a five-year term and is elected through a two-round system. If no candidate achieves an outright majority in the first round, a runoff is scheduled three weeks later.

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The constitution also states that if a president leaves office early, a new election must occur within 90 days.

However, the wartime restrictions have made such provisions unworkable. Only one president in Ukraine’s modern history, Leonid Kuchma, has ever served a second term.

Incumbent President Volodomyr Zelenskyy has not formally announced whether he intends to run again. In an interview in January, he said a second term was not his current priority.

The topic of elections in Ukraine resurfaced again during Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington on Monday, during his meeting with US President Donald Trump.

Addressing reporters at the Oval Office, Zelenskyy signalled his openness to organising an election once circumstances permit.

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“Yes, of course, we are open to election, yes. We have to do safety in circumstances, and a little bit, we need to work in parliament because during the war you can’t have elections,” he said.

He added that a ceasefire would be necessary to allow Ukrainians to vote in a democratic and lawful process.

Trump, who has repeatedly raised the subject of Ukrainian elections, pressed the matter directly.

Interrupting Zelenskyy, he asked, “So you’re saying that during the war you can’t have elections? So, let me just say that three and a half years from now — you mean if we happen to be in a war with somebody, no more elections?”

Zelenskyy responded with a laugh, “No, no.”

How Zelenskyy’s approval ratings look like

Zelenskyy’s political fortunes have shifted considerably since the start of the war. In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion in February 2022, his approval rating surged to 84 per cent, among the highest for any global leader at the time.

This reflected widespread admiration for his decision to remain in Kyiv and rally the nation.

Gallup surveys show that his approval remained extremely high through 2023 at 81 per cent.

By 2024, however, his support declined significantly, dropping to around 60 per cent.

In 2025, it rebounded slightly and stabilised at 67 per cent, indicating that while enthusiasm has cooled from wartime peaks, roughly two-thirds of Ukrainians continue to view him favourably.

By comparison, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko never achieved ratings near those levels.

Support for the country’s broader leadership, however, has been consistently lower. Gallup reported in July this year that only 46 per cent of Ukrainians approved of national leadership overall, compared with 67 per cent approval for Zelenskyy personally.

This 21-point gap is among the widest observed globally in recent years, highlighting how Ukrainians separate their trust in the president from their scepticism toward political institutions more broadly.

How Zelenskyy’s authority has been challenged in Ukraine

Despite strong approval ratings, Zelenskyy’s image has been tested by controversies, particularly over corruption and governance.

In late July, protests erupted after parliament swiftly passed legislation that would have curtailed the independence of two anti-corruption bodies by placing them under the authority of a prosecutor general chosen by Zelenskyy.

Thousands demonstrated in Kyiv and other cities, comparing the move to earlier episodes in Ukrainian politics where leaders were accused of undermining democratic checks.

Some likened the demonstrations, though smaller in scale, to the 2014 Maidan protests that toppled then-President Viktor Yanukovych.

The public backlash forced Zelenskyy and his party to reverse the decision within days. He submitted new legislation rolling back the changes and said he “respects the position of all Ukrainians.”

The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) found that the controversy had immediate effects. Its survey showed that 58 per cent of Ukrainians currently trust Zelenskyy, down from 74 per cent in May 2025 and 67 per cent in February-March.

KIIS noted that while trust had already been slipping, the protests “undoubtedly had an impact” on further declines.

The same poll revealed that 21 per cent of those who distrusted Zelenskyy cited corruption as the main reason, while 20 per cent pointed to dissatisfaction with his handling of the war.

Anton Grushetskyi, the institute’s executive director, wrote in a research note, “The persistent downward trend is a worrying signal that requires attention and thoughtful decisions from the authorities.”

How corruption is not new in Ukraine

Corruption has long been a defining issue in Ukrainian politics. Gallup data shows that 85 per cent of Ukrainians in 2025 believe corruption is widespread within the government, a figure consistent with averages from 2007 to 2024.

In fact, Ukraine has regularly ranked among the top 10 countries worldwide for perceived corruption during the past decade.

The July protests reinforced this perception, especially after the European Union announced it would withhold more than $1.7 billion in aid in response to Zelenskyy’s initial attempt to reduce the independence of anti-corruption agencies.

The EU has made fighting corruption and strengthening governance a precondition for Ukraine’s eventual membership.

For many Ukrainians, progress in this area is not only about improving democracy but also about preventing Russian influence from exploiting weaknesses.

How Ukraine views its institutions

Beyond attitudes toward the president, Ukrainians express varying levels of confidence in national institutions.

• Military: Confidence in the armed forces remains exceptionally high, consistently above 90 per cent since the invasion. This figure is among the strongest globally and reflects both respect for the military’s role in defending the country and its central place in national life.

• Elections: Confidence in the honesty of elections surged in 2022 to 58 per cent but declined to 43 per cent the following year. As of 2025, it remains around 42 per cent, signalling unease about electoral integrity despite wartime unity.

• Government: Approval of the national government rose sharply after the invasion to 60 per cent but plummeted to 28 per cent by 2024. In 2025, it recovered modestly to 35 per cent, still far below early wartime levels.

• Judiciary: Trust in the courts is the weakest, with only 27 per cent expressing confidence. This is consistent with long-standing criticism of Ukraine’s judicial system and its vulnerability to corruption.

The data reveals a paradox: while Zelenskyy maintains a personal approval rating that most leaders would envy, confidence in Ukraine’s institutions remains fragile.

If Ukraine voted today…

Legally, Ukraine cannot hold elections until martial law is lifted. Yet the question of Zelenskyy’s reelection prospects remains important for understanding the country’s political trajectory.

If an election were held today, Zelenskyy would enter the race with a trust rating of 58 per cent (KIIS) and an approval rating of 67 per cent (Gallup).

These figures, though lower than his wartime peak, still position him as the most popular political figure in the country.

By contrast, overall approval for national leadership is far weaker at 46 per cent, suggesting that Zelenskyy’s personal appeal far exceeds that of the political establishment.

However, declining trust, persistent concerns about corruption, and recent public protests indicate that his path to reelection would not be as smooth as it appeared in 2022 or 2023.

Unlike his first campaign in 2019, when he won decisively on an anti-corruption platform, a future campaign would take place in the shadow of a long war and amid public scepticism toward the government in Kyiv.

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With inputs from agencies