 "Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment trial wraps up in South Korea. What happens next?")
Ousted South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's trial is set to conclude today (February 25). He will deliver his closing statement before eight judges in a Constitutional Court trial that is examining his impeachment related to the brief declaration of martial law in December.
Yoon’s December 3 decree plunged South Korea into chaos, as he banned political activities and deployed troops to the nation’s democratic centre — only to revoke the order six hours later after lawmakers stormed parliament and unanimously voted to overturn it.
The impeachment motion, approved by the National Assembly on December 14, 2024, resulted in Yoon’s suspension from office. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo stepped in as acting president but was subsequently impeached, exacerbating the political crisis.
As Yoon’s trial draws to an end, what is in store for the leader and the country?
What is next in line?
The constitutional court, composed of eight judges, will conduct a closed session to adjudicate the legality of the parliamentary vote in December that resulted in the removal of Yoon from office. The judges will determine the fate of the impeached president behind closed doors with experts predicting a verdict in mid-March.
They will need to decide “whether the declaration of martial law violates the constitution and whether the president had the will to uphold the constitution,” Kim Hyun-jung, a researcher at the Korea University Institute of Law, told AFP.
To gain insight into the potential duration of the proceedings, one can look at the case of Roh Moo-hyun , whose impeachment was overturned by the constitutional court in 14 days. In the case of former president Park Geun-hye, who was removed from office in 2017 over a corruption scandal, it took only 11 days.
Both presidents received their verdicts on a Friday, prompting domestic media to speculate whether that pattern would hold for Yoon.
Will the court strike down the impeachment?
According to experts, the chances of the judges striking down the impeachment are pretty low.
“Legal scholars and experts agree that a unanimous ruling in favour of impeachment would be made by the Constitutional Court judges,” Kim said.
Yoon’s attempt to avoid multiple arrest warrants from investigative agencies and refusal to cooperate with prosecutors is “grave”, she added. She further said, “It is very hard to see any genuine commitment from Yoon to upholding the constitution.”
And unlike Park’s trial, which involved a myriad of cases, Yun Bok-Nam, president of Lawyers for a Democratic Society, told AFP that “legally speaking, the case is quite clear-cut”.
Yoon’s impeachment case only concerns whether he violated the constitution when declaring martial law on December 3, he said. If the constitutional court backs his removal, Yoon will become the second president in South Korean history to be successfully impeached.
Are there more cases against Yoon?
This is not the only case in which Yoon stands trial. He faces charges related to his martial law decree of leading an insurrection. He has been held in solitary confinement at a detention centre near Seoul, as per a report by CNN World.
South Korean presidential immunity does not extend to the charge of insurrection, a crime that can result in life imprisonment or the death penalty, although the latter has not been enforced in many years.
This case is expected to drag on well past his impeachment. “The entire criminal trial process, including appeals to the second and third instances, could take around one to two years,” lawyer Min Kyoung-sic told AFP.
“If found guilty, a heavy sentence, either life imprisonment or a long-term prison sentence, is highly likely,” Min said.
It would make Yoon the third South Korean president to be found guilty of insurrection. And if Yoon is not impeached, he will be able to remain in power, despite his pending criminal trials.
“It’s a contradiction, really. If the president is not removed from office, he would continue to face a criminal trial for insurrection while still serving as the sitting president. That in itself would be highly inappropriate,” Yun said.
What will the fate of South Korea be if Yoon is removed?
If Yoon is removed from office, South Korea will have to hold fresh elections within 60 days. Leading in recent polls is Lee Jae-Myung, leader of the opposition Liberal Democratic Party, with all other rivals lagging far behind, according to the latest Gallup poll.
Analysts caution it is too early to say if Lee will emerge victorious, as there is a mere six per cent gap between approval ratings for his party and Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP).
“The current political landscape following the declaration of martial law differs significantly from the impeachment crisis eight years ago,” Gallup Korea said in a report.
Lee also has legal troubles of his own, facing several trials over alleged corruption and other criminal charges. He was convicted of violating election laws in November and sentenced to a suspended prison term. If the Supreme Court upholds that conviction before new polls, he will be barred from running.
With inputs from AFP
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