Saudi Arabia is set to host Ukraine peace talk plans with several other countries this weekend. However, the absence of one major party – Russia – is raising eyebrows as well as questions. But what do we know about the summit? And will the peace talks sans Moscow be fruitful or ultimately futile? Let’s take a closer look: What do we know? The summit will be held in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah, said one official, who spoke early Sunday on condition of anonymity as no authorisation had been given to publicly discuss the summit. The Wall Street Journal, which first reported on the summit citing “diplomats involved in the discussion,” said the talks would take place 5 and 6 August with representatives of around 30 countries in attendance.- Those taking part in the summit will include Ukraine, Brazil, India, South Africa, Britain, Japan, Egypt, as well as several other countries.
The Journal reported that US NSA Jake Sullivan is likely to be present.
US officials had not confirmed the negotiations. News of the summit comes after Sullivan visited the kingdom Thursday. The newspaper reported that some officials are hopeful that the talks could firm up international support for Ukraine’s peace demands. Zelenskyy ’s plan, proposed earlier this year, calls for the withdrawal of all Russian troops and restoration of Ukraine’s post-Soviet borders. [caption id=“attachment_12848702” align=“alignnone” width=“640”]
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected any notion of a ceasefire that leaves Russia with gains.[/caption] He rejects any notion of a ceasefire that would leave Russia in control of nearly a fifth of his country and give its forces time to regroup after 17 months of war. The newspaper quoted diplomats as saying Saudi Arabia was chosen as host at least in part to persuade its close ally China to participate. The meet comes on the heels of a similar summit in June in Copenhagen, the Journal reported. A high-level official from US president Joe Biden’s administration also is expected to attend the event, which is being planned by Kyiv, the official said. Details remain in flux and the official did not offer dates for the talks, nor did Yermak. On Sunday, the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak, confirmed the talks would be held in Saudi Arabia, without naming Jeddah as the location. “The Ukrainian Peace Formula contains 10 fundamental points, the implementation of which will not only ensure peace for Ukraine, but also create mechanisms to counter future conflicts in the world,” Yermak said in a statement. “We are deeply convinced that the Ukrainian peace plan should be taken as a basis, because the war is taking place on our land.” Yermak’s statement described the 10 points as being “discussed individually and in groups with representatives of more than 50 countries on an almost weekly basis.” News of the summit comes after US national security adviser Jake Sullivan visited the kingdom Thursday. Russia was not invited, the official added. ‘Will monitor situation closely’ Politico quoted Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov as saying that Moscow will “follow this meeting” closely. [caption id=“attachment_12569472” align=“alignnone” width=“640”]
Russian president Vladimir Putin recently said that Ukrainian attacks on Russia made an African initiative calling for confidence-building measures hard to realise. AP[/caption] “It remains to be fully understood what goals are set and what, in fact, the organisers plan to talk about,” Peskov said. He added any attempts at peace are “worthy of a positive assessment.”
But Peskov also restated Moscow’s position that it currently sees no grounds for peace talks with Kyiv.
“The Kyiv regime does not want and cannot want peace, as long as it is used exclusively as a tool in the war of the collective West with Russia,” he said on a call with reporters. Peksov was further quoted as saying by CNBC, “Is it possible to reach a peace settlement now with the participation of the Kyiv regime and in the context of its current stance? The answer is unambiguous. No, it is impossible.” Will the summit bear fruit? It’s too early to say. Arab nations largely have remained neutral since Russia launched the war on Ukraine in February 2022, in part over their military and economic ties to Moscow. Saudi Arabia also has maintained a close relationship with Russia as part of the OPEC+ group. The organization’s oil production cuts, even as Moscow’s war on Ukraine boosted energy prices, have angered Biden and American lawmakers. However, Riyadh has also backed UN Security Council resolutions denouncing Russia’s invasion as well as Russia’s declared annexation of territory in eastern Ukraine. Hosting such talks also help raise the profile of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has sought to reach a détente with Iran and push for a peace in the kingdom’s yearslong war in Yemen.
Besides, Saudi Arabia has something of a track record when it comes to making such deals recently.
Last September, Riyadh played an unexpected role in brokering the release of foreign fighters detained in Ukraine, including two from the United States and five from Britain. [caption id=“attachment_12695262” align=“alignnone” width=“640”]
In March, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to re-establish relations between the regional rivals whose hostility had threatened stability and security in the Middle East and helped fuel regional conflicts from Yemen to Syria. Reuters[/caption] Earlier this year, a Saudi official told journalists that Riyadh remained open to contributing to mediation to end the conflict, especially “on important minor issues that may help cumulatively in the end to have a political solution of the whole issue.” As of February, Saudi Arabia had pledged $400 million in relief to Ukraine, about two-thirds in oil products and one-third in other humanitarian aid, including allocations for Ukrainian refugees who fled to neighboring countries. This, as ties remain strained between Riyadh and the West over the 2018 killing and dismemberment of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, which US intelligence agencies say was ordered by Prince Mohammed. For Ukraine, the talks coincide with its efforts to beef up its security posture. Yermak also said Sunday that Ukraine will begin talks with the United States next week on a bilateral agreement on security guarantees. He said the talks stem from a declaration by leaders of the Group of 7 nations earlier this month laying the groundwork for each nation to negotiate agreements to help Ukraine bolster its military. Yermak said Ukraine is looking for “specific and long-term commitments that will ensure Ukraine’s ability to win now and deter Russian aggression in the future.” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended an Arab League summit in Jeddah in May to press those nations to back Kyiv. Zelenskyy had at the summit accused some Arab leaders of turning “a blind eye” to the horrors of Russia’s invasion. The official who spoke to AP said the summit would be the next step after talks that took place in Copenhagen in June.
Other peace plans have been floated amid the war.
Russian president Vladimir Putin just finished meetings in St Petersburg with African leaders about their own proposed plan. Putin said on Saturday that an African initiative, calling for confidence-building measures followed by a cessation of hostilities, could be a basis for peace but that Ukrainian attacks on Russia made this hard to realise. China and Pope Francis also been working separately on their own. No details of those plans have been released. With inputs from agencies