Will grain row with Poland hurt Ukraine amid Russia war?

Ukraine finds itself facing a new crisis in the backdrop of the Russia war – a confrontation with its staunch ally Poland. The escalating row over grain has resulted in Warsaw comparing Kyiv to a drowning person and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky claiming that some countries were only pretending to support his nation. “Alarmingly, some in Europe play out solidarity in a political theatre — turning grain into a thriller. They may seem to play their own roles. In fact, they’re helping set the stage for a Moscow actor,” Zelenskyy said Tuesday during the UN General Assembly. Poland’s deputy foreign minister, Pawel Jablonski, on Wednesday voiced “strong protest” of Zelenskyy’s comments to Ukrainian Ambassador Vasyl Zvarych. Jablonski “indicated that it is untrue, as far as Poland is concerned, and that the opinion is unjustified toward the country that has been supporting Ukraine from the very first days of the war,” the Polish Foreign Ministry said in a statement. But what happened exactly? And how is the grain row with Poland hurting Ukraine? Let’s take a closer look:  What happened?  At the heart of the matter is a dispute about whether Ukrainian grain should be allowed to enter the domestic markets of Poland and other European Union states.  Tensions between Warsaw and Kyiv were sparked by a Polish ban on Ukrainian grain imports, with the goal of protecting its own farmers.

The development comes in the backdrop of Poland holding parliamentary elections next month.

The country’s ruling Law and Justice party is currently scrapping for the votes of farmers – many of whom are upset that Ukraine’s food products have flooded the local market, pushing prices down and hurting their livelihoods. Poland’s ruling party faces an election challenge from a new far-right coalition, Confederation, whose leaders complain that the country is doing too much to help Ukraine and claim Ukraine isn’t grateful enough. “We were the first to do a lot for Ukraine and that’s why we expect for them to understand our interests,“Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki told Polsat News on Wednesday. “Of course we respect all of their problems, but for us, the interests of our farmers are the most important thing.” [caption id=“attachment_12438872” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said his country will no longer send its weapons to Ukraine. AP[/caption] Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Croatia banned some Ukrainian agricultural goods after the EU recently decided to lift such restrictions. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine closed off Black Sea shipping lanes used before the war, resulting in the EU becoming a major transit route and export destination for Ukrainian grain. In May, the EU agreed to restrict exports to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, seeking to protect farmers there who blamed the shipments for a slump in prices on local markets. The measures allowed the products to keep transiting through the five countries, but stopped them being sold on the local market. But on Friday, the European Commission said it was ending the import ban, arguing that “the market distortions in the five member states bordering Ukraine have disappeared”. Croatia joined in Tuesday, when Kyiv announced it was responding with a WTO complaint. The rift also shows how Ukraine and its neighbours are competing agricultural powers and how European defence of domestic farmers could complicate Kyiv’s hopes for a future path into the EU. Ukraine — a major global supplier of wheat, barley, corn and vegetable oil — has struggled since Russia’s invasion to get its food products to parts of the world struggling with hunger. All the EU countries will keep allowing Ukrainian products to move through their borders to world markets. Russia dealt a huge blow by withdrawing in July from a wartime agreement that ensured safe passage for Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. That has left more expensive routes through Europe as the main way for Ukraine to get its products to developing nations where food prices have risen since Russia’s war began. However, the first ship loaded with grain left a Ukrainian port this week under a temporary Black Sea corridor.  Will row hurt Ukraine?  Poland has been a staunch ally of Ukraine since the war with Russia began.

Poland, on NATO’s eastern flank, has been, sending weapons and humanitarian aid and opening its borders to refugees.

But Poland says it will not send any more weapons. Morawiecki on Wednesday, asked if his country would continue to back Kyiv, said, “We are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine, because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons.” The growing tensions also highlight the risks Ukraine faces in maintaining Western support as its fight against Russia drags on. Ukraine prevailing is so important to Poland that it would not be likely to restrict the military assistance to Ukraine. Poland has bitter memories of being subjected to Moscow’s rule in the past and does not want to see Russia win a war in a neighbouring country. [caption id=“attachment_12529732” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A Ukrainian APC fires towards Russian positions near Avdiivka, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Friday, April 28, 2023. (AP Photo/Libkos)[/caption] Ukraine also threatened this week to ban some Polish food items, but appeared to back off that. Such a move would bring only more bans from Poland, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said. “I am warning the Ukrainian authorities, because if they escalate the conflict in this way, we will add more products to the ban on imports into Poland,” Morawiecki said Wednesday on Polsat News. He argued that Ukrainian officials do not seem to understand how Poland’s agricultural market has been destabilized by the war. In Bulgaria, the pro-Russia Socialist party has submitted a proposal to parliament to ban foods from Ukraine. So far, the government is just halting the import of sunflower seeds until a quota is agreed with Kyiv. Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov announced the measure late Tuesday after lengthy talks with farmers who launched a nationwide protest last week over parliament’s decision to lift a ban on Ukrainian imports, citing higher food prices. A foreign ministry statement said that “putting pressure on Poland in multilateral forums or sending complaints to international courts are not appropriate methods to resolve differences between our countries.” Kyiv responded by calling on Poland to “leave emotion aside” after it had summoned its ambassador, urging Warsaw to adopt a “constructive” approach in the dispute. What do experts say? A piece in The Guardian noted that Poland’s announcement was ‘largely rhetorical’.

 It stated that Warsaw has already transferred the majority of its military aid in the early days of the war.

It also noted that Poland has as yet made no mention of halting the use of Poland as a transit and repair hub for arms from other countries. Bloomberg quoted Morawiecki as saying Poland would not put Ukraine’s security at risk. He also noted how Poland was benefitting from the arrangement financially. Peter Schroeder, a former Russia analyst at the US Central Intelligence Agency and now an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told the outlet he wasn’t sure it would have a ‘significant impact’.  Poland’s “most important role has been as a transshipment point to get weapons from across NATO and other countries into Ukraine,” he stated.  “The PM noted that would continue.” Schroeder, however, noted that the flare-up would give some hope to the Kremlin. [caption id=“attachment_13077572” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Russian president Vladimir Putin. AP[/caption] “Tension and disagreements between Kyiv and some of its strongest backers is sure to instill more confidence in the Kremlin that European support for Ukraine is not certain over the long term,” he said. Tadeusz Iwanski, a Ukraine analyst from a Polish state-funded think tank, said that since the beginning of the war, Ukraine “has been pursuing a hyperassertive diplomacy, partly due to which its requests and demands have been granted, and it has been proven effective.” “This assertive policy might have taught Ukraine that things can be achieved through such diplomacy,” said Iwanski, head of Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova studies at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw. He said Ukraine likely feels strong pressure to export its grain to help bolster its finances. But some other analysts in Poland faulted the Warsaw government, accusing it of playing politics with Ukraine’s security to win votes. With inputs from agencies