Will China's Xi Jinping skip G20 Summit in India over map controversy?

From US president Joe Biden to France’s Emmanuel Macron and UK’s Rishi Sunak, the biggest world leaders are set to congregate in New Delhi in September for the 18th G20 Summit. But now, the presence of one heavy-hitter is in doubt – China’s Xi Jinping. Everyone is wondering if Xi will skip the historic summit – the first in Southeast Asia – in the National Capital from 8 to 10 September in the aftermath of Beijing releasing a 2023 map showing Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai Chin region as part of its territory. The fresh row comes just days after Xi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a conversation on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in August, agreed to de-escalation on the Ladakh border. Let’s take a closer look: Will Xi attend? According to The Economic Times, China is considering sending its Premier Li Qiang in place of Xi to New Delhi for the blockbuster event. Sources familiar with the matter told Reuters Xi is likely to skip the meet.

A source told Deccan Herald that all necessary preparations for XI’s visit have been made.

The source said the G20 Secretariat is in touch with the Chinese embassy – who have not yet sent word about Xi attending. X last visited India in 2019 at the second edition of the informal summit at Mamallapuram. The summit in India had been viewed as a venue at which Xi may meet with US president Joe Biden, who has confirmed his attendance, as the two superpowers seek to stabilise relations soured by a range of trade and geopolitical tensions. Xi last met Biden on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia last November. According to The Times, Sunak, the UK prime minister had also signalled an openness to meeting Xi for a one-on-one during the summit. In China, two foreign diplomats and a government official from another G20 country said that Xi will likely not be travelling for the summit. Two of these three sources in China said they were informed by Chinese officials, but they were not aware of the reason for Xi’s expected absence. All officials spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the media. [caption id=“attachment_13062052” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese president Xi Jinping at BRICS Summit in South Africa. ANI[/caption] Anticipation of a meeting between Xi and Biden has been fuelled by a stream of top US officials visiting Beijing in recent months, including a trip by Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo earlier this week. Another upcoming summit mooted for face-to-face talks between the two leaders is an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders Meeting in San Francisco on 12 to 18 November. Speculation over Xi’s attendance was first sparked earlier in August after foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra did not respond to the question of whether Xi would travel to India for the summit, as per The Times of India. Xi, who secured a precedent-breaking third term as leader last October, has made few overseas trips since China abruptly dropped strict pandemic-induced border controls this year. He did, however, attend a meeting from leaders of the BRICS group of major emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, in South Africa last week. What do experts say? Experts seem divided. Former Indian diplomat KC Singh told CNBC that he believed XI would attend the summit – if only to meet other world leaders.

“The Chinese are clearly not happy with India getting all the attention with the G20,” Singh was quoted as saying.

Singh, pointing to the BRICS Summit in South Africa, said the Russians and Chinese had big plans to ‘shape a new order’ against the West-led G7. “What happened on the sidelines of BRICS pointed out that both sides are looking for one-upmanship,” Krishnan added. A piece in Hindustan Times stated that the release of the map raises questions about whether Xi wants to attend. The piece noted that though Beijing releases its map every year, this is the first time New Delhi has registered such a serious protest. The piece added that China wanted Modi and Xi to have a bilateral meet on BRICS sidelines and was pushing for normalisation of ties without addressing the outstanding issues, but that was not possible due to Modi’s hectic schedule. “By deliberately releasing the so-called standard map on the eve of G20, China has clearly indicated that it treats India as an adversary and will put coercive pressure on India for having close ties with the US and Quad powers. This means that China will keep the military pressure up all along the 3488 km LAC and also arm its tributary state Pakistan to put pressure on India’s western borders,” the piece stated. Li likely to take Xi’s place, Putin not attending Two Indian officials, one diplomat based in China and one official working for the government of another G20 country said Li – who became the eighth premier of China in March 2023 – is expected to represent Beijing at the summit.

One senior Indian government official told Reuters that “we are aware that the premier will come”, in place of Xi.

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Li is also likely to attend a summit of East and Southeast Asian leaders in Jakarta, Indonesia on 5 to 7 September, according to a report from Kyodo. [caption id=“attachment_12519192” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Chinese Premier Li Qiang. Reuters[/caption] Li in October 2022 was elevated to the second-ranking member on the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Politburo Standing Committee. Spokespersons for the Indian and Chinese foreign ministries did not respond to requests for comment. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has already announced that he will not be travelling to New Delhi and will send foreign minister Sergei Lavrov instead. Putin conveyed his inability to attend in a phone call with Modi earlier this week. The prime minister thanked Putin for Moscow’s support of India’s G20 presidency. Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador will also not attend the summit. Several G20 ministerial meetings in India ahead of the summit have been contentious as Russia and China together opposed joint statements which included paragraphs condemning Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine last year. Ties between India and China countries have since deteriorated after the eastern Ladakh border standoff erupted on May 5, 2020, following a violent clash in the Pangong lake area. A fierce clash in the Galwan Valley in June 2020 marked the most serious military conflict between the two sides in decades. As a result of a series of military and diplomatic talks, the two sides completed the disengagement process in 2021 on the north and south banks of the Pangong lake and in the Gogra area. With inputs from agencies