Why Wagner troops’ presence in Belarus is troubling NATO

Tensions are rising between Belarus and Poland – and NATO is watching closely. On Saturday, Warsaw said over 100 mercenaries from the Wagner Group had moved close to the Poland border. Then, on Tuesday, Warsaw claimed Belarus violating its airspace with military helicopters and announced it was sending troops to its eastern border. Now, on Thursday, Poland, one of Ukraine’s most fervent backers in its conflict with Russia, has accused Belarus – an ally of Moscow – of attempting to destabilise its military alliance. But what happened exactly? How is the presence of Wagner troops in Belarus discomfiting NATO? What could occur next? Let’s take a look: What happened? On Saturday, Poland’s prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki said over 100 mercenaries belonging to the Russian-linked Wagner Group in Belarus had moved close to the border with Poland. Thousands of Wagner troops are reportedly in Belarus following a failed military uprising in Russia. Morawiecki said at a news conference that the mercenaries had moved close to the Suwalki Gap, a strategic stretch of Polish territory situated between Belarus and Kaliningrad, a Russian territory separated from the mainland. Poland is a member of both the European Union and NATO, and it has worried about its security with Russian ally Belarus and Ukraine on its eastern border. Those fears have grown since Wagner Group mercenaries arrived in Belarus since the group’s short-lived rebellion earlier this summer. Poland’s prime minister has claimed Belarus is moving Wagner troops near NATO’s eastern flank to destabilise the military alliance. “We need to be aware that the number of provocations will rise,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said after meeting Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda in eastern Poland.

“The Wagner Group is extremely dangerous and they are being moved to the eastern flank to destabilise it.”

Poland’s defence ministry said it was sending “additional forces and resources, including combat helicopters”. It said it had informed NATO of the border violation and Belarus’ charge d’affaires had been summoned to provide an explanation. The Polish military initially denied any border violation had occurred but later, after consultations, said the intrusion took place “at a very low height, hard to intercept by radar”. The Belarusian military denied any such violation and accused NATO member Poland, one of Ukraine’s most fervent backers in its conflict with Russia, of making up the accusation to justify a buildup of its troops. Why is NATO troubled? Because Belarus, an ex-Soviet state, and Russia, both have a long history of animosity with NATO-member Poland. Already, Belarus has allowed Russian president Vladimir Putin to use its territory as a launch pad for the Ukraine invasion – though it has not committed its own troops to the war. [caption id=“attachment_12696792” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Representational image. Reuters[/caption] Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko had earlier taunted Poland over the presence of Russian Wagner mercenaries near their joint border. The Belarusian defence ministry last month said the country’s forces will hold joint military exercises with Wagner fighters near its border with Poland. Last week, Putin accused Poland of harbouring territorial ambitions on Belarus and said it would consider any attack on its neighbour as an attack on itself. Lukashenko joked at a meeting with Putin last month that some of the fighters were keen to press into Poland and “go on a trip to Warsaw and Rzeszow”. State news agency Belta quoted him on Tuesday as saying that the Poles “should pray that we’re holding onto (the Wagner fighters) and providing for them. Otherwise, without us, they would have seeped through and smashed up Rzeszow and Warsaw in no small way. So they shouldn’t reproach me, they should say thank you.” Rzeszow is a city near the Ukrainian border. What could happen next? Some experts say tensions could escalate into conflict between Belarus and Poland – which could ultimately devolve into a full-scale war between Russia and NATO.

Recall Article 5 of the NATO charter – invoked after the 9/11 attacks – which states that an attack on one is an attack on all.

Barbara Yoxon, a lecturer in international politics at Lancaster University in northern England, told the outlet Warsaw “views Belarus as complicit in the current European security crisis.” “Deploying troops to the Suwalki gap would provide a direct link between Russia and Kaliningrad, which makes it a vitally important target for Putin’s regime,” Yoxon told CNN. “By deploying troops from both the west (Kaliningrad) and the east (Belarus), Russia would be able to effectively cut off the Baltic States from its NATO allies in central and western Europe. This would allow Putin to potentially invade countries like Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia.” “If Russia deployed troops to the Suwalki gap, it would likely trigger an immediate military reaction from other NATO countries, which would see it as a direct attack on its member states in the region,” Yoxon added. “Such a move would signal that Russia is ready to escalate its confrontation with NATO to a full-scale war and risk a nuclear escalation on both sides.” But others say such fears are overblown. The Independent quoted the American Institute for the Study of War as saying Wagner troops could not pose a threat to either Ukraine or Poland. “There is no indication that Wagner fighters in Belarus have the heavy weaponry necessary to mount a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland without significant rearmament,” the think-tank wrote in a statement. The newspaper quoted Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, as saying there was no ‘direct threat’ from the Wagner Group troops in Belarus. [caption id=“attachment_12807912” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner troops are in Belarus after a failed uprising in Russia. AP[/caption] “Our assessment is very simple: today there is no direct threat [from Belarus], but we are ready. We are monitoring everything related to the so-called Wagner missile defence system,” Skibitsky said. Al Jazeera quoted Laurynas Kasciunas, chairman of the Seimas National Security and Defence Committee, as saying Wagner Group mercenaries do not currently pose a ‘conventional military threat.’ Kasciunas added that whether or not they pose a threat on the future will depend on “further scenarios, how they are armed and their orders”. ‘Provocations will rise’ CNN quoted Poland’s deputy foreign minister Paweł Jabłoński as saying there could be further provocations from Moscow and Minsk. “We need to be aware that the number of provocations will rise,” Morawiecki predicted after meeting Nauseda in eastern Poland. The Poland-Belarus border has already been a tense place for a couple of years, ever since large numbers of immigrants from the Middle East and Africa began arriving, seeking to enter the EU by crossing into Poland, as well as Lithuania. Poland’s government accuses Russia and Belarus of using the migrants to destabilize Poland and other EU countries. It calls the migration a form of hybrid warfare, and has responded by building a high wall along part of its border with Belarus.

“Now the situation becomes even more dangerous,” Morawiecki told reporters.

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He added that “this is certainly a step towards a further hybrid attack on Polish territory.” “They will probably be disguised as Belarusian border guards and will help illegal immigrants to enter Polish territory, destabilize Poland, but they will also probably try to infiltrate Poland pretending to be illegal immigrants and this creates additional risks,” Morawiecki said/ Morawiecki spoke during a visit to an arms factory in Gliwice, in southern Poland, where Leopard tanks used by the Ukrainian army are being repaired. Nauseda said the number of Wagner fighters in Belarus could be higher than 4,000. “We must not only talk about measures at the national level but also … what should be done if this situation becomes even more complicated, including the closure of the border with Belarus,” Nauseda said.

“This should be done in a coordinated manner between Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.”

Lukashenko, meanwhile, has denied Poland’s claims. “I suddenly hear the other day that Poland has freaked out that allegedly some units as large as 100 people are moving here. No PMC Wagner units 100 people strong have moved here. And if they have, they did it only in order to pass on combat experience to the brigades, which are stationed in Brest and Grodno,” Lukashenko said during a working visit to Kamenets District, in the southwestern Brest region, on Tuesday. “I need to train my own military personnel because an army that doesn’t fight is half an army,” Lukashenko added according to the statement. “So they [Wagner] are here to pass on their experience.” Belarus’ defence ministry, writing on Telegram, said Warsaw had changed its mind about the incident “apparently after consulting its overseas masters”. “This statement was not backed up by data from Poland,” it said. “The Belarusian Defence Ministry views it in the manner of an ‘old wives’ tale’ and notes there were no border violations by Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters.” But residents of areas near the eastern Polish city of Bialowieza, close to the Belarus border, shared accounts on social media of what they said were border violations before the defence minister issued its statement. With inputs from agencies