Why the fear of the Israel-Hamas conflict escalating is real

With the Israel-Hamas war into its 10th day, there are fears that the conflict will escalate to engulf the wider region. Top US officials have warned that Israel may face a second front and that Iran’s involvement cannot be ruled out. “Iran is the elephant in the room,” a US official briefed on the situation said about the increasing military presence. “The carriers are accompanied by warships and attack planes. Every effort is being made to stop this from becoming a regional conflict.” This comes in the backdrop of Saudi Arabia reshuffling its priorities by putting a US-backed plan to normalise ties with Israel on the backburner. But are fears that the conflict will escalate and spiral out of control? Let’s take a closer look: Israel-Hezbollah clashes Israeli forces are engaged in skirmishes with Hezbollah militants along their Lebanon border. The Iran-backed group initially fired shells on Israel ‘in solidarity’ with the Palestinian people. Though the initial attacks did no damage, the clashes in recent days have grown far more intense. A dozen people, mostly combatants, have died on the Lebanese side, while two people have been killed in Israel. In a statement Sunday, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a new attack in northern Israel, near the Hanita kibbutz, saying it had killed or wounded several soldiers and destroyed two tanks and another military vehicle. And the Palestinian Hamas, which has fighters in Lebanon, said it had fired several rockets into northern Israel. [caption id=“attachment_13253352” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Lebanese army soldiers stand guard as they face the Israeli town of Metula, background, in the southern border village of Kfar Kila, Lebanon. AP[/caption] Israeli fighter jets have struck several Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, according to the Israeli army.

A piece in The Conversation noted that the Iran-backed group desires escalation.

“Like Hamas, Hezbollah has been losing grip over various segments of Lebanese society due to allegations of corruption, intervention in the Syrian conflict, and tampering with the judicial investigation into the 2020 Beirut port blast,” the article noted. “The situation on the border is extremely dangerous,” according to Heiko Wimmen, an analyst with the International Crisis Group. “While individual clashes there may represent just “one notch up on the escalation ladder,” such details “matter hugely,” he said on X. Sullivan, for his part, told ABC: “We see a real risk of escalation on the northern border, and that is why President Joe Biden has been so clear and so forceful in saying that no state and no group should seek to exploit the situation to their advantage or should escalate the conflict.” John Kirby, spokesman for the US National Security Council, told Fox News that the US did not want to “see another terrorist group like Hezbollah widening this, and opening fronts to distract against the fight against Hamas.” “If tomorrow Hezbollah started launching missiles into Israel, that would be seen as a real escalation,” a person in the know told CNN Washington warns Tehran to steer clear The Islamic Republic, which has provided both financial and military support to Hamas, has repeatedly denied any involvement in the 7 October attack. Kirby, however, said that even if the US so far lacks specific intelligence linking Iran to the Hamas attacks, Tehran cannot escape a share of responsibility. “Of course Iran is broadly complicit, and this has helped Hamas function and be able to conduct the terrorist attack they have conducted,” he said. Washington is keeping a watchful eye on Iran with Biden has warned Tehran not to intervene.

Top US officials have also been sounding the alarm.

Kirby, however, said that even if the US so far lacks specific intelligence linking Iran to the Hamas attacks, Tehran cannot escape a share of responsibility. “Of course Iran is broadly complicit, and this has helped Hamas function and be able to conduct the terrorist attack they have conducted,” he said. “There is a risk of an escalation of this conflict, the opening of a second front in the north and, of course, Iran’s involvement,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CBS earlier in the day. Sullivan said Washington had private channels to communicate its concerns to Tehran – and had used them in recent days. [caption id=“attachment_13237182” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] US president Joe Biden has warned Tehran not to get involved. AP[/caption] US defence secretary Lloyd Austin had announced Saturday that the United States was sending a second carrier group to the eastern Mediterranean “to deter hostile actions against Israel or any efforts toward widening this war following Hamas’s attack.” The USS Eisenhower and its escort ships will join the carrier group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford, which was deployed to the region earlier in the week. But Iran’s foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has warned it may not be able to stay out of the fray. Amirabdollahian told Al-Jazeera that Iran told Israeli officials “if they do not cease their atrocities in Gaza, Iran cannot simply remain an observer.” Amirabdollahian, for good measure, also threatened Washington. “If the scope of the war expands, significant damages will also be inflicted upon America,” he warned. The Conversation piece noted that Tehran likely sees the conflict as a chance to hurt its arch-rival as well as damage any chance Israel and Saudi Arabia have of normalising relations. Saudi-Israeli ‘normalistion’ on hold Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is putting US-backed plans to normalise ties with Israel on ice, two sources familiar with Riyadh’s thinking said. This signals a rapid rethinking of its foreign policy priorities as war escalates between Israel and Palestinian group Hamas.

The conflict has also pushed the kingdom to engage with Iran.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman took his first phone call from Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi as Riyadh tries to prevent a broader surge in violence across the region. The two sources told Reuters there would be a delay in the US-backed talks on normalisation with Israel that was a key step for the kingdom to secure what Riyadh considers the real prize of a US defence pact in exchange. Until Iran-backed Hamas sparked a war on 7 October by launching a devastating attack on Israel, both Israeli and Saudi leaders had been saying they were moving steadily towards a deal that could have reshaped West Asia. Saudi Arabia, birthplace of Islam and home to its two holiest sites, had until the latest conflict indicated it would not allow its pursuit of a US defence pact be derailed even if Israel did not offer significant concessions to the Palestinians in the their bid for statehood, sources had previously said. [caption id=“attachment_13249732” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, center, arrives to meet with Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Saturday. AP[/caption] But an approach that sidelined Palestinians would risk angering Arabs around the region, as Arab news outlets broadcast images of Palestinians killed in Israeli retaliatory airstrikes. Hamas fighters killed more than 1,300 Israelis in their 7 October attack and more than 1,500 had been killed by Friday in Israel’s ongoing strikes on Gaza in response. The first source familiar with Riyadh’s thinking said talks could not be continued for now and the issue of Israeli concessions for the Palestinians would need to be a bigger priority when discussions resumed - a comment that indicates Riyadh has not abandoned the idea. The Saudi rethink highlights challenges facing Washington’s efforts to deepen Israel’s integration in a region where the Palestinian cause remains a major Arab concern. “Normalisation was already considered taboo (in the Arab world) … this war only amplifies that,” Saudi analyst Aziz Alghashian said. Washington wants to build on the Abraham Accords when Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates, normalised ties. Sullivan told a White House briefing this week that the normalisation effort was “not on hold” but said the focus was on other immediate challenges. Riyadh moving to contain the crisis But there is some good news among the doom and gloom. Saudi Arabia seems to be moving to tamp down the crisis. The first source familiar with Saudi thinking said Washington had pressed Riyadh this week to condemn the Hamas attack but said Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan pushed back.

A US source familiar with the issue confirmed this.

The regional conflict has also prompted the Saudi crown prince and Iran’s president to speak for the first time after a Chinese-brokered initiative prompted the Gulf rivals to re-establish diplomatic ties in April. A Saudi statement said the crown prince told Raisi “the kingdom is exerting maximum effort to engage with all international and regional parties to halt the ongoing escalation”, underling Riyadh’s move to contain the crisis. A senior Iranian official told Reuters the call, made by Raisi to the crown prince, aimed to support “Palestine and prevent the spread of war in the region”. “The call was good and promising,” the official said. A second Iranian official said the call lasted 45 minutes and had the blessing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Saudi government did not provide further details on the call but the statement said the crown prince stated the kingdom’s “opposition to any form of civilian targeting and the loss of innocent lives” and expressed Riyadh’s “unwavering stance in standing up for the Palestinian cause”. [caption id=“attachment_13158082” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has moved to tamp down the crisis. AP[/caption] Saudi Arabia has been seeking to ease tensions elsewhere in the West Asia, including seeking to end a conflict Yemen, where Riyadh has led a military coalition in a war against the Iran-aligned Houthis. Asked about Raisi’s call with the crown prince, a senior US state department official said Washington was in “constant contact with Saudi leaders”. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has held several calls with his Saudi counterpart. The official said Washington was asking partners with channels to Hamas, Hezbollah or Iran “to get Hamas to stand down from its attacks, to release hostages, keep Hezbollah out (and) keep Iran out of the fray.” The first source familiar with Saudi thinking said Gulf states, including those with Israeli ties, were worried Iran could be drawn into a conflict that would affect them. Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the last week showed how the Saudi and Iranian visions for the region diverged. “The Saudis are still convinced the region, and Saudi Arabia itself, needs to shift toward regional cooperation and economic development. Iran seems to think the priority is to take the fight to the Israelis first,” he said. What do experts say? That the risks of escalation are certainly real. “If history at its worst is “one damned thing after another”, then the news can sometimes feel like the same damned thing, every hour on the hour. We have all now seen at least some of the hideous images of the worst attack on Israel since 1973,”a piece in The Times UK said. The piece warned that Israel, by dint of its response to the heinous attack on its citizens, could get lured into Gaza and then slammed from the north by Hezbollah. Hussein Ibish, senior resident school at the Arab Gulf States Institute, told France24, “If Israel sends ground troops into Gaza or does something else drastic.” “Then Hezbollah could open up a front in Lebanon and defend their decision by saying they have no choice, that they must defend Palestine.” “We could see Israel dragged into a multi-front war with various different resistance groups, most of them beholden to Iran,” Ibish added. “The risk of the conflict escalating is real, especially with what is happening on [Israel’s] northern border,” David Rigoulet-Roze, editor of the research journal Orients Stratégiques told the website_._ “There is a risk of a second front opening up, and that is very worrying.” Myriam Benraad, a political scientist specialising in the Arab world at Schiller University in Paris, said the Hamas attack could lead to tensions between Israel and Arab nations.

“Beyond the Israeli-Palestinian context, there is an Israeli-Arab context that is going to be extremely tense,” Benraad warned.

She added that “public opinion in Arab countries is still overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian”, even though the “proliferation of conflicts in the Middle East have pushed the issue of Palestine into the background”. “Hamas, on the other hand, is pursuing a hardline approach aimed at preventing any normalisation with Israel.” But others say a firm and experienced hand in the White House could make all the difference. As per CNN, the crisis has shone the spotlight on Biden’s extensive experience – perhaps more than any other sitting commander-in-chief – with the region. The piece noted that the president made his first trip to Israel in 1973, served on the powerful foreign relations committee, dealt with it as vice-president under Barack Obama It quoted allies as saying Biden would navigate through this crisis on the basis of his experience. “This president knows every side of this,” a senior US official told CNN, “and he will not be pushed into something he is not comfortable with.” With inputs from agencies