Why ‘sinking’ of China’s new nuclear submarine is a big blow to its navy

China’s ambitious push to expand its naval prowess, with the world’s largest navy, has suffered a severe blow after its newest nuclear-powered submarine sank earlier this year.

China’s first-in-class Zhou-class nuclear-powered attack submarine reportedly sank alongside a pier at the Wuchang Shipyard, near Wuhan, sometime between May and June 2024.

The Zhou-class submarine, designed with an advanced X-shaped stern for improved underwater maneuverability, was under construction when it submerged unexpectedly. Despite efforts by Beijing to cover up the incident, satellite imagery revealed the disaster to the world.

A senior US defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed the sinking and described the unusual activity at the shipyard. “It’s not surprising that the PLA Navy would try to conceal the fact that their new first-in-class nuclear-powered attack submarine sank pierside,” the US official told Reuters.

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The incident was first reported by The Wall Street Journal, and later corroborated by multiple intelligence sources and satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies, which showed cranes being used in an attempt to salvage the submarine.

What led to the sinking?

The exact cause of the submarine’s sinking remains unclear, and Chinese authorities have yet to acknowledge the incident publicly. It is still unknown whether nuclear fuel had been loaded onto the vessel at the time of the accident.

It’s not clear what caused it to sink or if it had nuclear fuel on board. “In addition to the obvious questions about training standards and equipment quality, the incident raises deeper concerns about the PLA’s internal accountability and oversight of China’s defence industry, which has long been plagued by corruption,” said the US official.

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Although the vessel was reportedly salvaged, experts believe that significant repairs will be needed before it can be made seaworthy again.

Brent Sadler, a former US submarine officer and senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told WSJ, “The sinking of a new nuclear sub that was produced at a new yard will slow China’s plans to grow its nuclear submarine fleet. This is significant.”

Is this incident a setback for China’s navy?

The sinking is a considerable setback for China’s military, which has been aggressively expanding its naval power. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy has 370 vessels, making it the largest navy by number of ships in the world, surpassing the US, which has 219.

This fleet includes 234 warships, and according to a 2022 Pentagon report, China operates six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, six nuclear-powered attack submarines, and 48 diesel-powered attack submarines. The submarine force is expected to grow to 65 by 2025 and 80 by 2035.

China has prioritised the modernisation of its navy, aiming to challenge US dominance, particularly in the Pacific. Submarines, like the Zhou-class, are seen as critical to this strategy.

In any potential conflict over Taiwan, China would rely heavily on submarines to block US forces from aiding the island.

Wellington Koo, Taiwan’s Defence Minister, while not directly commenting on the incident, stated, “We have a grasp of the situation through multiple intelligence and surveillance methods,” signalling that Taiwan is closely monitoring China’s naval developments.

How does this incident change China’s naval strategy?

The Zhou-class submarine was intended to be a cornerstone of China’s future naval capabilities, and the loss is a blow to the country’s maritime ambitions.

The Chinese military, particularly its navy, has made significant strides in recent years to bridge the technological gap with the US However, incidents like this expose vulnerabilities in China’s military-industrial complex, which has been dogged by corruption and mismanagement.

In the wake of the incident, experts are questioning whether China’s rapid military expansion is outpacing its ability to maintain high standards of training and equipment.

“The incident raises deeper questions about the PLA’s internal accountability and oversight of China’s defence industry, which has long been plagued by corruption,” the US defence official said.

Thomas Shugart, a former US Navy submarine officer and an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, remarked, “Can you imagine a US nuclear submarine sinking in San Diego and the government hushes it up and doesn’t tell anybody about it? I mean, holy cow!”

Where does China’s navy lack?

China’s navy is growing in size, but questions remain about its capabilities. The PLA Navy’s submarine force, although impressive in quantity, may not yet match the technological sophistication and operational readiness of the US fleet.

The US Navy operates 53 fast attack submarines, 14 ballistic missile submarines, and four guided missile submarines, all of which are nuclear-powered. In contrast, China’s nuclear submarine program is still developing, and incidents like this could slow down its progress.

Despite these setbacks, China shows no signs of slowing its military build-up. Earlier this week, China successfully conducted a rare launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean, demonstrating its growing nuclear capabilities.

Moreover, the PLA continues to retire older submarines while expanding its ability to produce new, more advanced vessels.

According to US officials, the Zhou-class submarine’s sinking will likely delay China’s efforts to achieve maritime superiority in the Pacific. However, Beijing’s long-term goals remain unchanged, and the PLA Navy is expected to continue its relentless push to modernise and expand its capabilities, despite this high-profile failure.

With inputs from agencies