Why Joe Biden is unlikely to visit India for Republic Day parade and Quad meet in January

US President Joe Biden is not expected to visit New Delhi in January for Republic Day celebrations. India has also put off plans to hold the Quad Summit next month, with officials now on the lookout for fresh dates. Following their meeting in September on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Delhi, US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti revealed about the invitation by saying that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had invited President Biden to be the Chief Guest for the parade on 26 January. Here are some reasons why the US president could skip the event. Presidential elections 2024 In response to questions about whether the US president would also miss Republic Day due to the postponing of the Summit, officials noted that it would be unlikely for Biden to visit India twice, particularly during an election year when he is a candidate for reelection, according to The Hindu. It might not be possible for Biden to take a few days off from his presidential campaign to go on a trip overseas. [caption id=“attachment_13499892” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Joe Biden speaks in this still image taken from his official campaign launch video published on 25 April. Reuters[/caption] On the other hand, the 81-year-old Democrat continues to be plagued by voters’ doubts about the strength of the economy, as well as concerns about the security of the US-Mexico border and worries about crime. Biden would be the oldest president ever elected to a second term if he won in 2024, and other polls have shown that some voters are also concerned about his advanced age. The Pannun factor While scheduling difficulties seem to be the clear reason behind putting off Biden’s visit, the news comes at an awkward time in Indo-US equations. Earlier, the US Justice Department accused a senior Indian intelligence official of hatching a plot to assassinate wanted Khalistani separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York, according to PTI. Since the indictment, the government has ordered a “high-level enquiry” into the allegations, raised by a number of American diplomats to Indian counterparts.

US Principal Deputy NSA Jonathan Finer visited Delhi last week and met NSA Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S Jaisankar and, currently, Christopher Wray, the director of Federal Bureau of Intelligence (FBI) – the agency responsible for the undercover investigation – is currently in New Delhi, as per the news agency. The US president’s decision to skip the high-profle event in India could fuel speculations about a possible strain in India-US relations, even after a strings of bilaterals, strategic and techological talks and Modi’s State Visit to Washington DC in June earlier this year. State of the Union address According to The Hindu, a senior official said that the US had expressed difficulties with scheduling Biden’s visit as it plans to hold the State of the Union address next month. Notably, India’s Republic Day events have always clashed with the annual addresss, which is to be delivered by the US president at the start of the calendar year to a joint session of the US Congress. Till date, Barack Obama was the only US president to be the chief guest at the prestigious parade. It was Modi government’s first year when the invitation was sent and the Obama administration made an extra effort to ensure that preparations for the annual State of the Union address did not impact his visit to New Delhi. He delivered the annual address on 20 January 2015. Donald Trump was the second President to get the invite, however, he turned down it down citing domestic Congressional commitments, which again was the State of the Union address. Geopolitical crises Biden’s possible visit also comes at a time when the world is witnessing multiple crises – the Israel-Hamas war, the Russia-Ukraine war and the strained relations between Washington DC and Beijing. For those unversed, US has been a close ally of Israel. Biden even vowed to offer the war-torn country “rock-solid and unwavering” assistance . However, contrast to his literal and political embrace of Benjamin Netanyahu, the US President on Tuesday said that Israel is losing support over its “indiscriminate” bombing of Gaza and that the Israeli leader should change, exposing a new rift in relations with the Israeli prime minister, according to Reuters. In the context of Russia-Ukraine war, Biden reaffirmed continued support to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. On Tuesday, he also warned Republicans that would give Russia a “Christmas gift” if they failed to provide additional military aid to the Ukrainian leader. Zelenskyy travelled to Washington to plead for money to back Ukraine in its war with Russia, but he faced a sceptical reception from key Republican lawmakers. Quad Summit postponed While the dates for the four-nation Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Summit had never been officially announced, several media reports quoted its sources as stating that New Delhi had proposed to hold the summit on 27 January. For Japan and Australia too, the timing of the summit of India-Australia-Japan-US leaders had earlier posed some issues. 26 January coincides with Australian National Day and PM Anthony Albanese would have had to leave Canberra directly after the ceremonies. Japanese PM Fumio Kishida would have needed a special parliamentary waiver to travel, considering the Japanese Diet in its budget session at the time. According to PTI sources, the Quad summit is now proposed to be held in the later part of 2024. “We are looking for revised dates as the dates currently under consideration do not work with all the Quad partners," sources told the news agency. The last Quad summit had taken place in Hiroshima on 20 May on the sidelines of the G7 summit. PM Modi had announced that India would host the next Quad leaders’ summit. Notably, the previous Quad summit was originally scheduled to take place in Sydney on 24 May. However it was decided to hold it in Hiroshima after President Biden postponed his trip to Australia. In the Hiroshima summit, the Quad leaders unveiled a ‘Vision Statement’ titled ‘Enduring Partners for Indo-Pacific’ expressing their resolve to act as a “force for good” to find common solutions for region-wide benefit. They also came out with a series of initiatives including in areas of clean energy supply chains, undersea cables and investments in strategic technologies. In their next summit, the Quad leaders are expected to bolster overall cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, a region that has been witnessing growing Chinese military assertiveness.