Why is Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin back in Russia?

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is back in Russia. The surprising development comes after Vladimir Putin ally Alexander Lukashenko brokered an agreement for Prigozhin to be ‘exiled’ in Belarus in exchange for amnesty and assurances.

Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is back in Russia days after leading a mutiny against President Vladimir Putin. #Russia #Prigozhin #Wagner #Putin pic.twitter.com/ltR6ekGfA1

— News18 (@CNNnews18) July 7, 2023

But where is Prigozhin exactly? And what is the Wagner chief doing in Russia? Let’s take a closer look: Where is Prigozhin? Lukashenko has said that Prigozhin is in St Petersburg. “Or maybe this morning he would travel to Moscow or elsewhere,” Lukashenko was quoted as saying by CNN.

“But he is not in the territory of Belarus now.”

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It is not clear if Prigozhin’s presence in Russia would violate the deal, which allowed the head of the Wagner Group military contractor to move to Belarus in exchange for ending the rebellion and a promise of amnesty for him and his troops. Some reports signalled that the agreement may have allowed him to finalize his affairs in Russia. Much about the agreement, which was brokered by Lukashenko, remains murky. Last week, Lukashenko said the mercenary leader was in Belarus, but on Thursday he told international reporters that Prigozhin was in St. Petersburg and could also travel to Moscow if he wishes, while Wagner’s troops were in their camps. He did not specify the location of the camps, but Prigozhin’s mercenaries fought alongside Russian forces in eastern Ukraine before their revolt and also have bases on Russian territory. He also said that Prigozhin has been given back the cash and weapons that were confiscated by Russian authorities. Lukashenko said his government offered Wagner, which has sent troops around the world to fight for Russia’s interests, the use of Belarusian military camps but that the company had not made a final decision. [caption id=“attachment_12834432” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko. AP[/caption] The Belarusian leader shrugged off suggestions that Putin might order Prigozhin killed, saying: “If you think that Putin is so vicious and vindictive to finish him off, no, it’s not going to happen. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has claimed it has no idea where Prigozhin is – and nor does it care to. “We don’t follow his movements. We have neither the ability nor the desire to do so," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying by Hindustan Times. “It’s great that Russian authorities don’t really care about a person who launched an armed mutiny against them. So where is he exactly? With the money, weapons and Wagner mercenaries?” Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs, tweeted. What is he doing in Russia? That remains unclear for the moment. But CNN reported that Russian state media released images of a police raid on Prigozhin’s St Petersburg addresses that showed gold, money, wigs, weapons and passports seemingly owned by Prigozhin. Russian online newspapers Fontanka and Izvestia posted videos and photos of Prigozhin’s opulent mansion in Russia’s second-largest city that showed stacks of cash and gold bullion. The images appeared to be part of the authorities’ efforts to denigrate Prigozhin, who has postured as an enemy of corrupt elites even though he has owed his wealth to Putin. A photo hanging in the mansion showed a lineup of decapitated heads. In one published image, an oversized souvenir sledgehammer could also be seen with the inscription “for important negotiations.” The sledgehammer has become a symbol of Wagner after reports its troops used the tool to beat defectors to death. The Russian media also published a collection of selfies that showed him posing in various wigs, fake beards and foreign uniforms, an apparent reflection of Wagner’s deployments to Syria and several African countries.

Some say Prigozhin being in St Petersburg signals that Putin’s hold on power may not be as strong as it seems.

A former Russian official told The Guardian, “It does not look like Prigozhin fears for his life. He does not act like a man on the run.” Glenn Carle, an ex-CIA spy who worked in Russia told Insider, “The thought that immediately comes to mind is this is a sign of Putin’s weakness.” [caption id=“attachment_12832082” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Experts are divided on what this means for Russian president Vladimir Putin. Reuters[/caption] He added that this shows “there are various factions that Putin has to placate” and that Prigozhin “has supporters within the power structure that Putin can’t afford to cross.” “Even though there is a law providing for 15 years in prison if you speak against the war if Prigozhin maintains his freedom, it would mean that an actual mutineer will have been allowed to go free,” ex-CIA acting director John McLaughlin told the outlet. Russian citizens are likely “as confused as the rest of us about this,” McLaughlin added. “That can’t be good for Putin.” It “lends credence to the view that Putin has been weakened by all of this,” Carle added. “Maybe he clearly is stumbling.” Others say the Kremlin is trying to downplay Prigozhin’s importance to the public or even hurt his image. Mark N Katz, George Mason university professor told Newsweek, “Despite Peskov’s statement to the contrary, I am sure that the Kremlin is quite capable of tracking Prigozhin’s movements and that it knows precisely where he is every minute of the day.” “I think Peskov, and the Putin regime more broadly, is trying to signal that Prigozhin isn’t so significant a threat anymore. Maybe next week, Peskov will start claiming that there really wasn’t a mutiny at all and that statements about it are all Western propaganda.” “They definitely have the capacity to surveil Prigozhin and they’re certainly doing it as he moves around both countries. It’s a way of being dismissive of him—he’s old news,” David Silbey, associate professor at Cornell, added. “The fascinating thing for me is that Prigozhin felt comfortable traveling back to Russia without, apparently, an overwhelming fear that he would be assassinated.” Asked if Prigozhin and his mercenaries would eventually move to Belarus, Lukashenko answered evasively that it would depend on the decisions of the Wagner chief and the Russian government. The Belarusian leader said he doesn’t think the mercenaries’ presence in his country would lead to its destabilization and said any Wagner troops there would be required to sign a contract with Belarusian authorities that would outline conditions and limitations of their actions. Belarusian political analyst Valery Karbalevich argued, however, that Lukashenko could feel uneasy about Wagner’s presence on his turf. “If this structure rebelled against its master once, it can do it again and again and march on Minsk instead of marching on Moscow,” Karbalevich said. The Belarusian president dismissed suggestions that the mercenaries could attack Ukraine from Belarusian territory, which Russian troops used as a staging ground ahead of their invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Moscow has also maintained a military presence in Belarus. With inputs from agencies