Why is Russia talking about nuclear tests again?  

Russia and the United States are suddenly talking about nuclear tests again. Moscow has accused Washington of preparing to conduct nuclear testing in Nevada and said it would revoke a landmark treaty banning the testing of nuclear weapons. A senior Russian diplomat, however, added that Moscow will only resume nuclear tests if Washington does so first. But what does this mean? And why is this happening? Let’s take a closer look: What happened? Deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters that Moscow will rescind the ratification of the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, adopted in 1996 and known as the CTBT, bans all nuclear explosions anywhere in the world, although it has never fully entered into force. It was signed by both the Russian and US presidents but was never ratified by the US. Ryabkov claimed Russia is doing this merely to “mirror” the action by the US.

He added that if the US conducts a nuclear test, “we will be forced to mirror that as well.”

Ryabkov’s remarks came after President Vladimir Putin last week said Russia’s parliament should consider withdrawing Moscow’s ratification of CTBT. As per Time Magazine, the last nuclear test conducted in Russia came in 1990 – prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin said last Thursday that Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which sets out conditions under which he would press the nuclear button, did not need updating, but added he was not yet ready to say whether or not Moscow needed to resume nuclear tests. Putin, speaking at a global think-tank forum, was quoted as saying by the Wall Street Journal, “In theory, ratification is revocable. If we do it, this will suffice.” “It’s up to the state duma members,” he added, as per Al Jazeera. “I hear calls to start testing nuclear weapons, to return to testing,” Putin said at a meeting of Russian foreign policy experts at the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi, as per Time Magazine. “I am not ready to say whether we really need to conduct tests or not, but it is possible theoretically to behave in the same way as the United States,” Putin added. Putin last week highlighted two nuclear-capable weapons, the nuclear-propelled Burevestnik cruise missile and the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which he said Russia would now mass-produce and place on combat duty. [caption id=“attachment_13235592” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Representational image.[/caption] “As a rule, specialists say, [with] a new weapon it’s necessary to make sure that a special warhead will work smoothly, and tests need to be carried out," Putin said as per the newspaper. Ryabkov was cited by Russian news agencies as saying that Russia felt it had no choice but to align itself with Washington’s nuclear testing stance. The Russian foreign ministry was preparing draft legislation to de-ratify the treaty and Moscow would still interact with the organisation that oversees the test ban after de-ratification, Ryabkov was cited as saying. “We will transmit our data, receive other people’s data. The moratorium remains in place. We’re just withdrawing ratification. That’s it,” said Ryabkov. The speaker of the Russian parliament’s lower house, the State Duma, has said that lawmakers will move to rescind ratification of the nuclear test ban. The chamber’s agenda-setting council on Monday gave the foreign affairs committee 10 days to prepare the issue for the house to consider. Ryabkov charged that the US “believed that we will keep turning a blind eye” to its failure to ratify the pact, adding that “we hope that Washington will get the signal.” “We believe that the 23 years that we have been waiting for something to change in Washington in terms of ratification are quite a sufficient time for this step to be made,” he said. “Regrettably, no indications that the US is going to follow this path are visible, and so we have no choice but to balance our position.” He pointed out at Putin’s earlier order to make the country’s nuclear testing range ready for resuming tests, emphasizing that “the resumption of tests is possible if the US conducts a test.” Al Jazeera quoted Russia’s envoy to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), Mikhail Ulyanov, as posting on X:

#Russia plans to revoke ratification (which took place in the year 2000) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (#CTBT). The aim is to be on equal footing with the #US who signed the Treaty, but didn’t ratify it. Revocation doesn’t mean the intention to resume nuclear tests

— Mikhail Ulyanov (@Amb_Ulyanov) October 6, 2023

  The US state department said, “We are disturbed by the comments of Ambassador Ulyanov in Vienna today,” “A move like this by any state party needlessly endangers the global norm against nuclear explosive testing,” the State Department said. Russia should not be “wielding arms control and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric in a failing attempt to coerce other states”, it added. Why is this happening? These developments come as Russia is currently locked in what it sees as an existential struggle with the West over Ukraine. There are widespread concerns that Russia could move to resume nuclear tests to try to discourage the West from continuing to offer military support to Ukraine. Many Russian hawks have spoken in favour of resumption. As Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear non-proliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies told Time Magazine, “The Russians are trying to hold hostage anything they can to get their way on Ukraine.” Since the start of his invasion, Putin has served the West with repeated, pointed reminders of Russia’s nuclear might, including by announcing the stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. He has also suspended Moscow’s participation in the New START treaty that limits the number of nuclear warheads that Russia and the United States can deploy. [caption id=“attachment_13171112” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] These developments come as Russia is currently locked in what it sees as an existential struggle with the West over Ukraine. AFP[/caption] His comments last week on the CTBT came in direct response to a question by a security analyst, Sergei Karaganov, who suggested to Putin that Russia should lower its threshold for nuclear use. Karaganov has raised eyebrows among both Russian and Western strategic analysts by arguing that it is time for Russia to lower its threshold for nuclear use in order to “contain, frighten and sober up our opponents”. He wrote in one recent article that Russia should “shake up” its enemies by threatening nuclear attacks on European countries and US bases in Europe. But Putin said he saw no need to change the doctrine which says Russia may use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or a threat to the existence of the state.

“I simply don’t see the need for this," he said.

He added: “There is no situation today in which, say, something would threaten Russian statehood and the existence of the Russian state. No. I think no person of sound mind and clear memory would think of using nuclear weapons against Russia.” But he remained ambivalent on the question of nuclear testing. “As a rule, experts say, with a new weapon you need to make sure that the special warhead will work without failures and you need to conduct tests,” Putin said. He added that he was “not ready to say” whether tests were required. As per Bloomberg, Putin’s remarks came just days after the US floated a plan allowing international observers to visit its nuclear sites. The proposal was made last week on the sidelines of a meet of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. The proposal would allow observers to examine the so-called sub-critical experiments – tests that look to authenticate weapons design without a nuclear explosion taking place. “We are open to hosting international observers for monitoring and verification research,” National Nuclear Security Administration official Jill Hruby said in June, as per Time Magazine. She added that the department is “open to working with others to develop a regime that would allow reciprocal observation with radiation detection equipment at each other’s subcritical experiments.” What do experts say? Putin’s comments were widely seen by Western security experts as showing that Russia, which has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, was ready to resume nuclear testing if necessary, a move that would be designed to signal intent and evoke fear in any standoff with the West. Some Western security analysts now see a growing likelihood of a Russian test, even though Putin said the aim was only to mirror the position of the United States, which has signed but not ratified the treaty. “A Russian nuclear test is clearly very much on the cards now. I don’t think it’s a certainty, but it shouldn’t surprise anybody if that happens,” said James Acton, co-director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Matthew Harries, director of proliferation and nuclear policy at the RUSI think-tank in London, said cancelling Russia’s ratification would create a “legal and presentational framework for Russia to test if it wants to”. If Moscow did conduct a test, he said, “it would be a strong form of signalling, to put the nuclear threat in people’s minds, to try to signal resolve and to evoke fear”. But others disagree. Speaking to Wall Street Journal, Pavel Podvig, senior researcher on weapons of mass destruction at the United Nations disarmament agency in Switzerland, called the move a ‘political one’.

“I don’t believe that this reflects the intent to actually go and test," Podvig said.

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“We can see that the idea of parity with the United States is very important for the Kremlin." Speaking to Time Magazine, Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, stressed the importance of negotiations. “It’s in Russia’s interest as well as the United States’ interest to understand and to be assured" about each other’s nuclear programs, Kimball added. Kimball, speaking of the  first US-USSR Strategic Arms Control agreement, added, “The two sides sat down for weeks and weeks in Helsinki and hammered out this agreement. That’s what’s possible if the two sides recognize the value of negotiations and the nuclear constraints they can produce.” But others see darker times ahead. Like ex-Soviet and Russian diplomat Nikolai Sokov who said a Russian nuclear test would mark a very serious escalation towards actually using an atomic weapon. For that reason, Sokov said, he did not expect Russia to test at this point. Rather, he said, rescinding ratification would be a political step and part of a wider review of Moscow’s security obligations to remove perceived imbalances and “level the field” with the United States. “At the moment I see a nuclear test as unlikely but the situation is very tense and an escalation is not impossible,” said Sokov, now senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation. He said he could envisage a Russian nuclear test as part of a scenario where the Ukraine war was going very badly for Putin. “The trick is to get very close to nuclear use but avoid it - to force the adversary to take a step back so the US and NATO think: ‘Is it really worth it?’ To change the calculation of costs and benefits,” Sokov said in a telephone interview. “At some point you may need to show that you’re very, very serious about possibly using nuclear weapons. That’s where a nuclear underground test can play a big role.” Sokov said he did not believe that Putin was interested in actually using nuclear weapons, but the risk in such a scenario was that “you simply can lose control of events” and the logic of escalation could lead him to use them even if that was not his intention at the start. Acton said it was plausible, as Sokov said, that Putin was preparing the option of a nuclear test as a warning signal if things went badly for him in Ukraine. But he said it was also possible that Putin had already decided he was going to test, irrespective of what was happening in the war. In that case, he said, the test would be more a statement about Russia’s intention to further develop its nuclear weapons and about their growing importance in its defence posture at a time when its conventional forces have struggled in Ukraine. RUSI’s Harries said the next things to watch would be whether Russia would lay further groundwork for a test, perhaps by accusing Washington of preparing one, and whether it continued to support the CTBT by maintaining its share - as the United States and China do - of the global monitoring stations that track test-related seismic activity and radiation. Experts say the move that would sharply raise tensions with the West and likely prompt other world powers to resume testing for the first time this century. Acton said that if Russia carried out a test, the United States was likely to follow, and that could prompt China, India and Pakistan could do the same. CNN reported last month that Russia, the United States and China have all built new facilities and dug new tunnels at their nuclear test sites in recent years, according to satellite imagery. “The more countries test, the more are then likely to test, so I’m pretty concerned about this,” Acton said. “If we’re in a world in which testing is going on, the first thing that shows us is that nuclear risks have risen.” With inputs from agencies