Why Indonesia's elections are important for the world

Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy, will vote to elect a new leader on 14 February, and the elections will be more important than everyone realise. The current Indonesian president, Joko Widodo, also known as Jokowi, has already served the maximum two terms, so this year’s election will mark the first change in leadership in a decade. Prabowo Subianto, an ex-general with a dismal human-rights record, is the front-runner. The two other candidates, former governors Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, are trailing Prabowo in the polls. More than 204 million of Indonesia’s 270 million people are registered to vote, and election day is a public holiday. So, turnout is expected to be typically high — 81 per cent in the most recent election in 2019, according to Indonesia’s General Election Commission. There are 18 national political parties in Indonesia, with 575 parliamentary seats available. Alongside choosing a new president, Indonesians will on 14 February also vote for new lawmakers at the national and sub-national levels, in what will be the world’s biggest single-day election. Why do legislative elections matter? Indonesia is sometimes called a ‘presidential democracy with parliamentary characteristics’, meaning both the executive and legislative branches play an active role in lawmaking and any legislation needs approval from both branches. General elections in Indonesia are a battle of political parties and are followed by intense horse-trading that determines ruling and Opposition alliances in the country’s key lawmaking body, the lower house of parliament, and its relationship with the president. [caption id=“attachment_13720052” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Supporters of presidential candidate Anies Baswedan cheer during his campaign rally in Lampung Timur, Indonesia. AP[/caption] Political alliances can shift depending on the outcome of the presidential election, which may go into a second round. What are the parties to watch? The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is the biggest party of nine currently in parliament. It is projected to once again dominate the polls with around a fifth of votes across the country. But its popularity has waned since the last general election in 2019 and its presidential nominee, Ganjar Pranowo, is trailing in surveys. A close second, the Great Indonesia Movement party, Gerindra, of frontrunner Prabowo Subianto, is expected to garner around 17 per cent of votes, according to surveys. A three-party coalition projected to get about a fifth of votes is backing a third presidential candidate, Anies Baswedan. **Also Read: Big elections in Indonesia on 14 February: Here’s a snapshot of key figures** A total of 18 parties are contesting the elections and a new outfit, Indonesia Solidarity Party (PSI) headed by outgoing President Joko Widodo’s son, is expected to make it into parliament for the first time. Parties need at least four per cent of votes across the country to qualify for representation in the national parliament. To nominate a presidential candidate, a party or coalition of parties needs to control at least 20 per cent of seats in national parliament. Is the president guaranteed parliamentary support? Parliament could play a big part in determining how successful the new president might be. A sizable Opposition could make things complicated by delaying legislation and thwarting the president’s initiatives, making policymaking less certain. [caption id=“attachment_13720062” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A photo of Indonesian president Joko Widodo, right, shaking hands with presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto is displayed on a large screen during Subianto’s campaign rally at Gelora Bung Karno Main Stadium in Jakarta, Indonesia. AP[/caption] Incumbent Widodo succeeded in forming a coalition with the major parties, allowing him to advance his agenda. But those alliances are unstable ahead of a change in power and his successor may not get an easy ride. What the elections mean for the world? Indonesia is an emerging nation. It was named one of the six swing States that will determine the direction of world politics by Foreign Policy, an American news publication, last year. Furthermore, the Diplomat reported that by 2027, its economy is expected to rank sixth in the world. **Also Read: Indonesia polls: From top candidates to major issues, what you need to know** Each of the contenders has put forth a different vision for their nation’s place in the world, that seek to address and manage myriad international challenges – geopolitical competition, climate change, food security, and more – and their impact on economic and social welfare. Prabowo would bring a patriotic outlook to government. He has pledged to uphold Indonesia’s “good neighbour” policy diplomatically. He “[does not] adhere to neoliberal view” in terms of economics and has a history of supporting protectionist measures. Ganjar has indicated that he views international affairs primarily from a homegrown perspective. Anies expressed the desire for Indonesia to take on a more “decisive role” in the world and emphasised the significance of the president’s international presence, reports The Diplomat. Regarding the two current issues—the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China—the contenders’ stances are largely consistent. All three are in favour of a Palestinian state, which is something that the people of Indonesia firmly believe in. Though there are some differences in how the three-approach certain China-related issues, they are all interested in maintaining positive relations with both the United States and China rather than taking a side. With inputs from Reuters