Why has Belarus joined the SCO? What does it mean for the bloc?

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has a new member – Belarus.

Minsk on Thursday joined the grouping dominated by China and Russia during the 24th SCO summit in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana.

Belarus joined India, China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as the 10th member of the bloc.

The SCO was founded at a summit in Shanghai in 2001 by the presidents of Russia, China, the Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

It has emerged as an influential economic and security bloc and one of the largest trans-regional international organisations.

The SCO promotes common approaches to external security threats such as drug trafficking and also focuses on countering any domestic instability.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has skipped the summit this time.

India is being represented by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar.

Kazakhstan is hosting the summit in its capacity as the current chair of the grouping.

But what does the inclusion of Belarus – a staunch ally of Russia – mean for the grouping?

Let’s take a closer look:

According to RFERL, the expansion of the SCO comes as yet another move by China and Russia to push the bloc as a counterweight to the Western-led world order.

Vladimir Putin said the SCO has “firmly established itself as one of the key pillars of a fair, multipolar world order."

It also means Russia and China are drawing ever closer.

“Russian-Chinese relations, our comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation, are experiencing their best period in history,” Putin said as per RFERL.

“Our cooperation is not aimed against anyone, we are not creating any blocs or alliances, we are just acting in the interests of our peoples,” Putin said.

In his opening remarks, Xi told Putin that China and Russia should “uphold the original aspiration of friendship for generations” in response to an “ever-changing international situation.”

Calling Putin an “old friend, Xi alluded to the progress the two countries had made in putting in place “plans and arrangements for the next development of bilateral relations.”

China and Russia declared a “no limits” partnership in February 2022 when Putin visited Beijing, days before he sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine. Since then, Xi and Putin have deepened relations.

Xi and Putin believe the US-dominated post-Cold War era is crumbling.

The US casts China as its biggest competitor and Russia as its biggest nation-state threat. US president Joe Biden says this century will be defined by an existential contest between democracies and autocracies.

At last year’s virtual summit, the group criticised what it called the negative impact of “unilateral and unlimited expansion of global missile defence systems by certain countries or groups of countries” without directly referring to NATO expansion or Western military assistance to Ukraine.

In a move that highlighted Beijing’s pragmatic economy- driven approach, Xi presided over a ceremony on Wednesday with his Kazakh counterpart just hours before meeting Putin, to mark the departure of a fresh batch of cargo along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

The route, also known as the Middle Corridor, starts in southeast Asia and China, runs through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and further to Europe. It has been heavily promoted by the West as an alternative to Asia-Europe land transit via Russia.

What do experts say?

Eva Seiwert, an analyst and project coordinator at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), told The Diplomat Magazine that the inclusion of Belarus takes the SCO even further from its original mission.

Belarus’ addition “fully commits the SCO to its role as a multilateral representation of the ‘new international order’ championed by China and Russia,” Seiwert wrote.

She added that “enlargement has raised the SCO’s profile and put it in a bind – international visibility comes hand in hand with a loss of regional relevance.”

As a result, members might “seek other formats for tangible regional cooperation.”

Catherine Putz wrote in The Diplomat that though Minsk joining the group will make it bigger, it also weakens its focus.

“It will arguably further damage its international credibility, what little it had; Belarus is a heavily sanctioned autocracy and a vocal supporter of Russia,” Putz wrote.

Seiwert told CNN the move “really highlights how the SCO’s mission has changed in the last few years.”

“Unlike Iran, you don’t really get much like economic or security cooperation out of Belarus joining. And that’s why I argue that it’s more of a geopolitical move,” Seiwert added.

“They want the SCO to be perceived as a major bloc that cannot be ignored anymore,” she said. “With all these countries joining, China and Russia (want to show they) both have a lot of supporters for their worldviews.”

Bates Gill, a senior fellow for the National Bureau of Asian Research, told CNN the move raises more questions than it provides answers.

“It creates all sorts of problems and new questions about the reputation, legitimacy and mandate of the organization, given the nature of the Belarus regime and its support for Russia’s flagrant violation of international law and invasion of Ukraine,” Gill said.

“Clearly the SCO can tolerate authoritarian regimes, but for the mandate of the organisation, it further diversifies and dilutes its original focus, which was to be on Central Asia.”

‘No substantial results’

However, experts noted that the SCO hasn’t lived up to its potential – yet.

“The mandate for the SCO can be quite vague and far-reaching,” Seiwert told RFERL. “Officially speaking, this is a security organisation that focuses on improving collaboration among its member states and building mutual trust throughout the region.”

“For a long time, China wanted to make sure that the SCO is not portrayed as an anti-Western organisation, but this has changed, especially since Iran joined,” Seiwert added. “It’s becoming clear that the SCO doesn’t care so much about what the West thinks anymore.”

Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, told the website the SCO still doesn’t have any massive achievements.

“It’s still trying to figure out what it is now and what it can be,” he said.

“At the end of the day, its main advantage is just the sheer size and its collective GDP, but there are still almost no substantial results.”

The grouping remains largely a place for regional leaders to meet Xi and Putin.

India, meanwhile, seems to be losing interest in the grouping

Niva Yau, a fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, said this development “reduces the SCO’s global profile and limits some of China’s bigger plans.”

Gill told CNN the inclusion of Belarus “puts the Central Asian states in a very awkward position in some respects.”

“They are pursuing what they like to call multi-trajectory diplomacy. They don’t want to be committed to only dealing with one major power, like Russia or China.”

India’s association with the SCO began in 2005 as an observer country. It became a full member state of SCO at the Astana summit in 2017.

India has shown a keen interest in deepening its security-related cooperation with the SCO and its Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS), which specifically deals with issues relating to security and defence.

Pakistan became its permanent member along with India in 2017.

With inputs from agencies