Why does Venezuela want to claim oil-rich region controlled by Guyana?

Venezuela and Guyana are going at it – and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is involved. On Sunday, voters in Venezuela approved President Nicolas Maduro’s plan to claim Essequibo – an oil and mineral rich area that belongs to its neighbour Guyana. The development comes just days after the ICJ ordered Venezuela to take no steps to alter the status quo. Let’s take a closer look at the row: The origins of the dispute Essequibo is a 159,500-square-kilometer territory that comprises two-thirds of Guyana. Venezuela has long considered Essequibo as its own. As per The Guardian, Venezuela has done so since 1811 – when it gained its freedom from Spain in 1811.

This is because Essequibo was within its boundaries during the Spanish colonial period.

Venezuela has long disputed the border decided by international arbitrators in 1899 when Guyana was still a British colony. That boundary was decided by arbitrators from Britain, Russia and the United States. The US represented Venezuela on the panel in part because the Venezuelan government had broken off diplomatic relations with Britain. As per The New York Times, while most nations consider Essequibo part of Guyana, many in Venezuela continue to insist otherwise. Venezuelan officials contend that Americans and Europeans conspired to cheat their country out of the land and argue that a 1966 agreement to resolve the dispute effectively nullified the original arbitration. Guyana, the only English-speaking country in South America, maintains the initial accord is legal and binding and asked the International Court of Justice in 2018 to rule it as such, but a decision is years away. Why is Essequibo important? For Guyana, the area is home to over a sixth of its population of 800,000, as per The Guardian.

The region is also mineral rich – having reserves of gold, copper and oil.

The area, which is larger than Greece, also allows access to an area of the Atlantic where energy giant ExxonMobil discovered oil in commercial quantities in 2015 . This drew the attention of the Maduro government. [caption id=“attachment_13464522” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] President Nicolas Maduro speaks to pro-government supporters after a referendum regarding Venezuela’s claim to the Essequibo, a region administered and controlled by Guyana, in Caracas, Venezuela. AP[/caption] Essequibo also borders Brazil whose defence ministry earlier this week in a statement said it has “intensified its defence actions” and boosted its military presence in the region as a result of the dispute. It is also important to note that the development comes in the backdrop of growing trouble for Maduro. Venezuela’s government promoted the referendum for weeks, framing participation as an act of patriotism and often conflating it with a show of support for Maduro. Maduro threw the full weight of his government into the effort. Essequibo-themed music, nationally televised history lessons, murals, rallies and social media content helped the government to divert people’s attention from pressing matters, including increasing pressure from the US government on Maduro to release political prisoners and wrongfully detained Americans as well as to guarantee free and fair conditions in next year’s presidential election. A piece in The New York Times noted that Maduro has seemingly stoked the dispute to distract from his troubles at home. “For Mr Maduro, stoking a geopolitical crisis provides a way to shift the domestic conversation at a moment when many Venezuelans are pressing for an election that could challenge his hold on power,” the piece noted. What’s the latest? The International Court of Justice on Friday ordered Venezuela not to take any action that would alter Guyana’s control over Essequibo, but the judges did not specifically ban officials from carrying out Sunday’s five-question referendum. Guyana had asked the court to order Venezuela to halt parts of the vote. Then, on Sunday, Venezuelans approved the government referendum.

The New York Times quoted Venezuela’s electoral authority as saying more than 95 per cent of those polled voted for the referendum.

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They were asked whether they support establishing a state in the disputed territory, known as Essequibo, granting citizenship to current and future area residents and rejecting the jurisdiction of the United Nations’ top court in settling the disagreement between the South American countries. Voters on Sunday had to answer whether they “agree to reject by all means, in accordance with the law,” the 1899 boundary and whether they support the 1966 agreement “as the only valid legal instrument” to reach a solution. The National Electoral Council claimed to have counted more than 10.5 million votes even though few voters could be seen at polling sites throughout the voting period for the five-question referendum. The council, however, did not explain whether the number of votes was equivalent to each voter or if it was the sum of each individual answer. “It has been a total success for our country, for our democracy,” Maduro told supporters gathered in Caracas, the capital, after results were announced. He claimed the referendum had “very important level of participation.” [caption id=“attachment_13464532” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Travelers look out at the Essequibo River as they ride a ferry carrying vehicles across Guyana’s Kurupukari crossing, AP[/caption] Yet long lines typical of electoral events did not form outside voting centers in Caracas throughout Sunday, even after the country’s top electoral authority, Elvis Amoroso, announced the 12-hour voting period would be extended by two hours. If the participation figure offered by Amoroso refers to voters, it would mean more people voted in the referendum than they did for Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor and predecessor, when he was re-elected in the 2012 presidential contest. But if it is equivalent to each individual answer marked by voters, turnout could drop to as low as 2.1 million voters. “I came to vote because Essequibo is ours, and I hope that whatever they are going to do, they think about it thoroughly and remember to never put peace at risk,” merchant Juan Carlos Rodríguez, 37, said after voting at a center in Caracas where only a handful of people were in line. What happens next? The practical and legal implications of the referendum remain unclear. In comments explaining Friday’s verdict, international court president Joan E Donoghue said statements from Venezuela’s government suggest it “is taking steps with a view toward acquiring control over and administering the territory in dispute.” “Furthermore, Venezuelan military officials announced that Venezuela is taking concrete measures to build an airstrip to serve as a ‘logistical support point for the integral development of the Essequibo,’” she said.

It remains unclear how Maduro will enforce the results of the vote.

The question to consider is if he will actually invade Guyana in a Wag The Dog-type situation. “The government is holding the referendum for internal reasons,” said Benigno Alarcon, director of the Center for Political Studies at Caracas’ Andres Bello Catholic University. “It needs to test its electoral machinery.” “If the Opposition joins together and there is a willingness to participate (in the 2024 election) by Venezuelans, Maduro is out,” added security analyst Rocio San Miguel. “He is activating a scenario of conflict” to perhaps suspend the election.” “It’s very alarming,”  Venezuelan defence specialist. Rocío San Miguel told The Guardian. “We are probably heading to a dead-end street where both sides have to protect their honour, and that is a dangerous place where, throughout history, irrational decisions have been taken.” Phil Gunson, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, warned that Maduro would pay a high price diplomatically. “Maduro would be totally isolated because he has virtually no support anywhere in the world – even among his own traditional allies such as Cuba,” Gunson said. Guyana vows to defend ’every inch of territory’ Guyana considers the referendum a step toward annexation, and the vote has many on edge. The New York Times quoted Guyana president Mohamed Irfaan Ali as saying, “Essequibo is ours, every square inch of it.” “People in the border region are very concerned,” Guyana’s foreign minister, Hugh Todd, told The Guardian.

“Maduro is a despotic leader, and despotic leaders are very hard to predict.”

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“Any one of our international partners in the democratic free world will want to support Guyana’s cause, because we have always followed the rules, procedures and principles. Venezuela is doing the contrary to that. They are on the wrong side of international law and they are on the wrong side of history. They do not have friends and partners on the path that they are taking,” Todd added. “We have always said, and we mean it, that we want to resolve the controversy over the 1899 award peacefully. But while we believe that diplomacy is the best option, we are a nation state and we have to protect our people. Therefore we will not rule out any option necessary to ensure that we can protect and preserve our sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he said. Ali on Sunday told Guyanese his government is working continuously to ensure the country’s borders “remain intact” and said people have “nothing to fear over the next number of hours, days, months ahead.” “I want to advise Venezuela that this is an opportunity for them to show maturity, an opportunity for them to show responsibility, and we call upon them once more join us in … allowing the rule of law to work and to determine the outcome of this controversy,” Ali said. With inputs from agencies