Why Disease X is being discussed at Davos 2024

At the 54th World Economic Forum (WEF) in Switzerland’s Davos, researchers and business leaders are set to discuss Disease X. The World Health Organisation (WHO), whose director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus is joining tomorrow’s panel to discuss it, has warned that Disease X could kill more than 20 times the number of people dead than the COVID-19 pandemic. But what is Disease X? How real is the threat? And what are scientists doing to fight it? Let’s take a closer look: What is it? For one, Disease X isn’t a particular disease per se.

As per the WHO, it “indicates an unknown pathogen that could cause a serious international epidemic.”

“Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease. The R&D Blueprint explicitly seeks to enable early cross-cutting R&D preparedness that is also relevant for an unknown “Disease X”. The WHO added Disease X to their list of diseases and pathogens prioritised for research and development in public health emergency contexts in 2017. The list includes

• COVID-19
• Crimean-Cong haemorrhagic fever
• Ebola virus disease
• Marburg virus disease
• Lassa fever
• Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)
• Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
• Nipah and henipaviral diseases
• Rift Valley fever
• Zika

How real is the threat? While news of the session may have alarmed many on social media, there’s no cause for concern. Dr Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told Fortune people in the medical and public health “have always conducted thought experiments and tabletop exercises to prepare for pandemics.” Dr Stuart Ray, vice chair of medicine for data integrity and analytics at Johns Hopkins’ Department of Medicine, the website it would be “irresponsible” for world leaders not to meet. “There have been multiple such events in recorded history, and the recent coronavirus pandemic taught us that rapid response can save millions of lives,” he said. “Coordination of public health response is not conspiracy, it’s simply responsible planning.” Such meetings should be publicised because “such planning requires oversight, appreciation for personal impact on personal and economic freedom, and impact on special populations,” he added. “It makes good sense for a global public health organization, scientific leaders, and interested private individuals to be involved.”

But others are not so sanguine.

Kate Bingham, who headed up UK’s Vaccine Taskforce from May to December 2020, in an interview with Daily Mail warned that Disease X could result in a repeat of the 1919-1920 Spanish flu. “Let me put it this way: the 1918-19 flu pandemic killed at least 50 million people worldwide, twice as many as were killed in World War I. Today, we could expect a similar death toll from one of the many viruses that already exist,” Bingham said. [caption id=“attachment_13528512” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Some experts say humanity got lucky that the COVID-19 toll wasn’t worse.[/caption] If the world has to tackle the threat from Disease X, “the world will have to prepare for mass vaccination drives and deliver the doses in record time”, she added. “In a sense, we got lucky with Covid-19, despite the fact that it caused 20 million or more deaths across the world. The point is that the vast majority of people infected with the virus managed to recover… Imagine Disease X is as infectious as measles with the fatality rate of Ebola. Somewhere in the world, it’s replicating, and sooner or later, somebody will start feeling sick,” said Bingham. Bingham also explained why humans are likely to witness more pandemics. “The increase in outbreaks is the price we’re having to pay for living in the modern world. First, it’s increasingly connected through globalisation. Second, more and more people are cramming into cities, where they often come into close contact with others,” she added. What are scientists doing? As per Bloomberg, groups like the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) are supporting rapid response vaccine platforms that could develop new vaccines within 100 days of a virus with pandemic potential. Other efforts underway include:

• Updating the International Health Regulations and developing a new global agreement to protect the world from future emergencies.
• A new fund, approved by the World Bank, for pandemic prevention, preparedness and response.
• A WHO Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence in Berlin that aims to speed access to key data, and develop analytic tools and predictive models to assess potential threats.
• The Global Virome Project that aims to discover zoonotic viral threats and stop future pandemics.
• A $5 billion US government initiative to develop next-generation vaccines and treatments for Covid-19, called Project NextGen.
• $262.5 million in funding for a US national network for detecting and responding more efficiently to public health emergencies. Establishment of global center for pandemic therapeutics.

The WHO, meanwhile, says scientists are simply doing their job. “Targeting priority pathogens and virus families for research and development of countermeasures is essential for a fast and effective epidemic and pandemic response. Without significant R&D investments prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, it would not have been possible to have safe and effective vaccines developed in record time,” Dr Michael Ryan, executive director of WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme was quoted as saying on the organisation’s website. “This list of priority pathogens has become a reference point for the research community on where to focus energies to manage the next threat,” added Dr Soumya Swaminathan, WHO chief scientist. “It is developed together with experts in the field, and is the agreed direction for where we—as a global research community—need to invest energy and funds to develop tests, treatments and vaccines. We thank our donors like the US government, our partners, and the scientists who work with WHO to make this possible.” With inputs from agencies