Why closure of Poland-Belarus border is hurting China

Poland has closed its border with Belarus – and it is hurting China.

The development comes as Russia and Belarus conduct large-scale military exercises amid rising tensions between Minsk and Warsaw. It also comes in the aftermath of Poland shooting down Russian drones that crossed into its airspace.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Poland was closing its border with Belarus due to ’national security reasons’. Russia, remember, used part of Belarus as a staging ground to launch its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

But what do we know? How has the closure of the border impacted China? Why is Beijing putting pressure on Poland to reopen it?

Let’s take a closer look:

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What we know of the Russia-Belarus drills

Around 13,000 personnel are participating in the military exercises between Russia and its close ally Belarus, known as the Zapad 2025 (West-2025) drills.

The exercises, which are taking place from September 12-16, include simulated defence operations, repelling attacks, restoring territorial integrity of the ‘Union State’ – the alliance between Russia and Belarus – the use of AI, drones, and air support. They are being conducted at training grounds in both countries, including close to the Polish border.

Tusk, ahead of the exercises, last week denounced the drills as ‘very aggressive from a military doctrine perspective’ and noted that they were occurring ‘very close to the Polish border’. Poland is an EU and Nato member and ally of Ukraine.

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Poland’s Interior Minister, Marcin Kierwiński, said that the border would only be reopened when the government was sure ’there was no more threat to Polish citizens’. This is the first full closure of the border in their bilateral history.

Belarus borders three Nato members – Poland, Lithuania and Latvia – to its west, and Ukraine to its south. It has insisted that the drills are purely defensive in nature, pose no threat to neighbouring states, and have limited parameters.

The previous Zapad exercises took place in September 2021, five months before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Belarus’s strongman leader Alexander Lukashenko is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has backed him throughout the war.

How has it impacted China?

Poland’s closure of the border has shuttered three freight rail crossings – Kuźnica Białostocka-Hrodna, Siemianówka-Svislach, and Terespol-Brest. A car and lorry crossing has also been closed.

One of the railway lines, the Terespol-Brest, is a key route for Chinese exports to the European Union. Around 90 per cent of rail freight between China and the EU passes through Belarus and into Poland.

This is no small matter for China. Data show that rail freight volume between China and the EU increased by 10.6 per cent in 2024. Meanwhile, the value of cargo reached $29.54 billion last year – an 84.9 per cent rise from 2023. Rail transport now comprises 3.7 per cent of total trade between the EU and China, up from 2.1 per cent in 2023.

The website China Daily noted that Poland, in recent times, has witnessed the largest increase in cargo volume on the Belt and Road route.

The newspaper said that in the third quarter of 2024, trains from China to Poland transported 93,300 twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEUs) – an increase of 221 per cent. From January to September this year, 227,656 TEUs arrived in Poland – an increase of 154 per cent from last year.

If the border closure continues, the costs to Chinese companies could be prohibitive as Beijing is forced to reroute cargo via other countries.

“If this route were closed, some parcels would have to be shipped by sea, and others [up to an estimated 30 per cent] by air. This will impact costs and operational quality,” CEO of delivery firm Last Mile Experts, Marek Różycki, told Polish daily Rzeczpospolita.

“If the border closure lasts only a few days, there won’t be a major problem. Trains arriving from China will be reloaded in Belarus and wait there for the border to open. We will only lose money on handling these reloads,” president of PKP Cargo Connect, Piotr Sadza, added.

“There is no good alternative to the rail route between China and the European Union. We assume the situation will quickly return to its previous state. Businesses must adapt to the circumstances,” Sadza said.

Not only do the disruptions increase costs and delays, they also undercut China’s Belt and Road pitch – a pet project of Chinese President Xi Jinping – of reliable, fast rail transport compared with sea shipping.

While rail volume cannot yet compete with sea freight in scale or cost, its importance will only grow in the future. Little wonder, then, that Beijing is piling pressure on Poland to reopen the line.

Beijing piles pressure

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said its top diplomat would ’exchange views with the Polish side on bilateral relations, China-EU relations and international and regional issues of common interest’ and ‘develop a comprehensive plan for exchanges and cooperation between the two countries in various sectors’.

Poland’s Foreign Minister briefed his Chinese counterpart on Monday about the closure. Foreign Ministry spokesman Paweł Wroński said Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski had met China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in Warsaw and explained the situation.

“This is not a decision aimed at hitting anyone among the partners who transport goods,” Wroński said.

“Manoeuvres with a very aggressive scenario are currently taking place in Belarus,” he added, noting that Poland is continually exposed to a ‘hybrid war’ on its eastern borders.

“The logic of security prevails in our region over that of trade,” he explained. “It is difficult to conduct free trade when a border is not a secure border.”

Wang arrived in Poland on Monday after visiting Austria and Slovenia, amid deadlock in international diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

China regularly calls for peace talks and respect for the territorial integrity of all countries, implicitly including Ukraine. Western powers would like Beijing to do more to rein in Moscow. But Beijing has never condemned Russia and has strengthened its trade, diplomatic, and military ties with Moscow. China is accused by some of Kyiv’s allies of helping its Russian neighbour bypass Western sanctions.

Poland-Belarus relations hit new lows

Already strained relations between Poland and Belarus have hit new lows since Minsk’s ally Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Poland has already closed most of its border crossings with Belarus, with only two still operating.

Last week, Belarusian media reported that a Polish national had been arrested in Belarus on suspicion of espionage for possessing documents related to the Zapad exercises.

Tusk then said Poland had arrested a Belarusian spy and would expel a diplomat who ‘supported the aggressive action of the Belarusian state against Poland’. He added that the arrest was the result of cooperation with the Czech Republic and Romania.

Prague said on Monday it would expel a Belarusian diplomat it accused of espionage, while in Romania, the anti-organised crime prosecuting unit DIICOT said it was investigating a 47-year-old Moldovan former senior intelligence agency chief for treason.

The Belarusian Foreign Ministry denounced the expulsion of the diplomats as ‘groundless’ and ‘an element of coordinated provocative policy with the Czech side…with the aim of boosting tension in international relations and within the region’.

With inputs from agencies