Why BJP won Haryana easily, but lost in J&K despite having a better vote share than NC

The results of the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir polls are out.

And they make for interesting reading.

The BJP has won a third consecutive term in Haryana with wins in 48 seats.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference-Congress combine is on the way to take power with combined wins in 48 seats.

The BJP, meanwhile, won 29 seats.

Both Assemblies have 90 seats and the magic mark to gain power is 46 seats.

But how did BJP win in Haryana and lose J&K with a similar vote share?

Let’s take a closer look:

BJP win in Haryana

First, let’s examine the BJP’s win in Haryana.

The party got 48 seats in the Haryana Assembly polls.

As per data from the Election Commission of India (ECI), the saffron party received at 39.94 per cent of the vote share.

The party increased its vote share by around 3.5 per cent from the 2019 polls.

The party in 2019 won 40 seats in Haryana with a 36.49 per cent of the vote share.

The Congress, meanwhile, won 37 seats with a 39.09 vote share in the 2024 Haryana Assembly polls.

The Congress improved its vote share by double digits over 2019.

That election saw the grand old party with a vote share of 28.08 per cent.

The Congress had won 31 seats in the previous election.

So despite the Congress improving its performance in the vote share, it was unable to convert its gains into the seat share.

Meanwhile,  the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) got a 4.14 per cent vote share, while the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) received a vote share of 0.90 per cent.

The AAP received a 1.79 per cent vote share, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) got 1.82 per cent, the Communist Party of India (CPI) received just 0.01 per cent, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) won 0.25 per cent.

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)’s vote share was nil, while the National Conference of the People’s Socialist Party (NCPSP) received 0.03 per cent.

The voting for the Haryana polls saw a turnout of  67.90 per cent.

Over two crore eligible voters cast their ballots.

The None of the Above (Nota) option polled at .038 per cent.

Second-largest party in Kashmir

In Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP got a vote share of 25.64 per cent.

The saffron party, which emerged as the second-largest party, won 29 seats.

However, it is the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference that emerged as the single-largest party with 42 seats.

This despite winning a vote share of just 23.43 per cent.

Meanwhile, the Congress, which tied up with the NC before the polls, received an 11.9 per cent vote share.

The PDP got a vote share of 8.87 per cent, the BSP won a vote share of 0.96 per cent, while CPI(M) won 0.59 per cent.

Meanwhile, 1.48 per cent of voters went for the NOTA option.

In 2014, the PDP emerged as the single-largest party with 28 seats.

The Mufti Sayeed led party had received 22.67 per cent vote share.

The BJP, which won 25 seats, got 22.98 per cent of the vote share.

Meanwhile, the National Conference won just 13 seats with a 20.77 per cent vote share.

The Congress won just five seats with an 18.01 per cent vote share.

Why the discrepancy?

Experts put this discrepancy down to the first-past-the-post voting system.

As per The Times of India, under this system, where a candidate with the most votes prevails can result in such outcomes.

The piece noted, “If a party crosses its ‘threshold votes’, it gains disproportionately, and if its votes fall below this threshold, its seats fall dramatically.”

The piece added that though the analysis of a party’s performance remains rightly fixated on seats, people tend to ignore the fact that a party might not be winning seats but still remains a force on the ground.

“Other factors like elections getting two-cornered from multi-cornered and the formation of alliances also impact how votes get converted to seats,” the piece noted.

With inputs from agencies