Why are China, Belarus conducting joint military drills dangerously close to NATO and EU border?

China and Belarus have commenced joint military exercises near the city of Brest, a mere 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) from the border with NATO and EU member Poland.

These exercises, codenamed “Falcon Assault,” will span 11 days and include a variety of tactical operations such as night landings, overcoming water barriers, and urban combat training. The drills, described as “anti-terrorist training,” aim to enhance the coordination capabilities and deepen practical cooperation between the two armies.

Photos released by the Belarusian defence ministry showcased the arrival of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops in Belarus on a Chinese Y-20 strategic transport aircraft.

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The Chinese troops were given a grand welcome ceremony upon their arrival on July 6. Major General Vadim Denisenko, chief of Belarusian special operations command, highlighted the importance of these exercises in adapting to new forms and methods of warfare, given the complex global situation.

Why are the drills being held in Brest?

Brest’s proximity to Poland and Ukraine, just 50 kilometers away, has emerged as a matter of concern.

Poland, a significant ally of Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, views these exercises with concern. NATO’s summit, scheduled to be held in Washington from July 9-11, is likely to address these developments.

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Chinese state-run media reported that Chinese forces also participated in a military parade in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, marking the 80th anniversary of Belarusian liberation. These activities coincide with a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Warsaw, where he signed a security agreement with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Belarusian government statements said that these drills will lay a foundation for further development of Belarusian-Chinese relations in the field of joint troop training. The Chinese defence ministry reiterated that the drills are part of an annual plan and consensus, with the aim to enhance the coordination capabilities of the participating troops.

Why now?

This is the first time in six years that China has sent military personnel to Belarus for such exercises. Their last bilateral joint drills took place in China, though both countries participated in Russia’s Vostok multilateral exercise in August 2022.

The decision for more joint military drills was made following a meeting between China’s then defence chief Li Shangfu and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk last August.

The exercises are taking place against the backdrop of Belarus joining the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as its 10th member during its 24th meeting of heads of council in Astana, Kazakhstan. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko hailed this development as a significant stride in their bilateral relations.

Is this a strategic powerplay?

The joint drills are seen as a direct response to the increasing presence of NATO forces on Belarus’s borders.

A Belarusian defence ministry statement on Telegram highlighted that NATO forces on the border with Belarus are rapidly growing, leading to increased regional tensions. “Our country is taking all possible measures to prevent escalation. However, if someone crosses our borders, the reaction will be harsh,” the statement warned.

Russia’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus further solidifies their strategic partnership, with significant implications for regional security and NATO relations. In 2023, Russia moved some of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, reinforcing the strategic alliance between Moscow and Minsk.

Independent Belarusian analyst Valer Karbalevich told AP last month, “Muraveyko’s appointment is an open challenge to the West and a desire to show Putin Minsk’s complete loyalty and willingness to maintain a strategic partnership with Russia. The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus does not leave Lukashenko a strategic choice, turning him into a hostage of the Kremlin and firmly binding Minsk to Moscow’s policies.”

The agenda remains the same

The joint exercises and Belarus’s entry into the SCO reflect a broader strategy by China and Russia to counter Western influence. The SCO, founded in 2001 to combat terrorism and promote border security, has evolved into a geopolitical counterweight to Western institutions led by the United States and its allies.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have met frequently, signaling closer alignment between the two nations amid increasing Western scrutiny and sanctions.

“The China-Russia relationship today is hard-earned, and the two sides need to cherish and nurture it,” Xi told Putin during a recent meeting in Beijing. “China is willing to… jointly achieve the development and rejuvenation of our respective countries, and work together to uphold fairness and justice in the world.”

Western leaders are increasingly concerned that China may be considering providing military assistance to Russia, a move that US officials warn would have serious consequences.

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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his newly appointed Belarusian counterpart Maksim Ryzhenkov agreed to “firmly support each other” on issues concerning their core interests and major concerns, highlighting their opposition to a world order dominated by the US.

With inputs from agencies