Why a possible Israel attack on Iran's nuclear sites, oil refineries could be disastrous  

After Iran launched a volley of ballistic missiles at Israel, Tel Aviv may be looking to hit back – and hit back hard.

It has been reported that Israel is eyeing targeting Iran’s oil refineries and nuclear sites.

Israel has not ruled out any options – including using nuclear weapons.

Let’s take a closer look why a possible attack by Israel on Iran’s nuclear sites and oil refineries could be disastrous.

What is Israel planning?

NBC is reporting that Netanyahu met with Israel’s military and intelligence leaders to figure out a response on Wednesday.

The official said that timeframe has been made complicated by the start Jewish New Year on Wednesday and a slew of holidays afterward.

The outlet quoted an Israeli official as promising ‘swift retaliation.’

Israel is determined to hit back quickly, the official added.

However, no decision was reached on how it will do so.

Axios on Tuesday reported that Israel is eyeing a ‘significant attack’ against Iran in response to the ballistic missile attack.

Tel Aviv is considering all options against Tehran – including nuclear weapons.

“We have a big question mark about how the Iranians are going to respond to an attack, but we take into consideration the possibility that they would go all in, which will be a whole different ball game,” an Israeli official told the website.

Israel wants to coordinate its plans with the United States, as per Axios.

The problem for Israel now is since former president Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, Tehran has become what is known as a ‘threshold state.’

Meaning it now possesses the capacity to build a nuclear weapon.

As per The National News, Iran has declared at least 21 nuclear sites to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The agency has found some sites having uranium particles enriched over 80 per cent.

This is near the level needed to make a nuclear weapon.

Meanwhile, Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, said the Israelis would ‘receive a far more crushing response’ if they make a mistake.

Israel, meanwhile, is thought to have its own nuclear arsenal of around 100 weapons.

However, it does not acknowledge its existence.

Israel could also hit Iran’s oil refineries.

Oil analysts and security experts have said Israel could target Iran’s oil refining sites and the Kharg Island oil port, which handles around 90 per cent of the country’s crude exports.

This industry is the country’s “arterial economic lifeline” and the “soft belly of Iran,” Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London, told NBC News because “without revenue from oil exports, the economy will take a heavy blow.”

Iran in turn could hit Saudi Arabi’s oil refineries or close the Strait of Hormuz.

Riyadh and Tehran have had a political rapprochement since 2019, which helped ease regional tensions, but relations remain difficult.

“Iran and its proxies could potentially target energy operations in other parts of the region in order to internationalize the cost if the current crisis devolves into an all-out war,” said Helima Croft from RBC Capital Markets.

“This dangerous cascading effect would trigger a spike in oil prices and severe disruptions in the energy supply chain with a global knock-on effect,” Ozcelik said.

‘Answer is no’

President Joe Biden said Wednesday he will not support an Israeli strike on sites related to Tehran’s nuclear program in response to Iran’s missile attack on Israel.

“The answer is no,” Biden told reporters when asked if he would support such retaliation after Iran fired about 180 missiles at Israel on Tuesday.

The White House said in a statement that G7 leaders “unequivocally condemned Iran’s attack against Israel” and that Biden reaffirmed America’s “full solidarity and support to Israel and its people.”

Biden added that he supports Israel’s right to defend itself and “there are things that have to be done” in response to the Iranian barrage. He said he expected sanctions from the G7 nations to be announced soon.

“We will be discussing with the Israelis what they are going to do,” Biden told reporters before heading to the Carolinas to see the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene. “All seven of us agree that they have a right to respond.”

Biden said that he planned to speak with Netanyahu “relatively soon.”

Biden’s administration has signaled that it is urging Israel to display restraint in how it responds to Iran’s missile attack, which Biden said was “ineffective and defeated.”

The US military helped Israel defend against the attack that Iran carried out in retaliation for the killing of Tehran-backed leaders of Lebanese Hezbollah.

Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said there “must be a return message” to Iran. He said the US and Israel officials continue to discuss their response.

“At the same time, I think we recognize as important as the response of some kind should be, there is a recognition that the region is really balancing on a knife’s edge,” Campbell said at a forum hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think tank.

But Israel’s politicians seem to be lining up behind Netanyahu.

“Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it,” Netanyahu said on Tuesday. “The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies … They will understand.”

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Iran would “pay a heavy price.”

Israel’s United Nations Ambassador Danny Danon said Iran would “bear the painful consequences.”

Foreign Minister Israel Katz on Tuesday released a statement saying, The ayatollahs’ regime has crossed the red line — and the State of Israel will not be silent in the face of Iran’s criminal attack on our citizens.”

Defence Minister Yoav Gallant wrote on X. “Iran has not learned a simple lesson — those who attack the State of Israel, pay a heavy price.”

Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, too, said in a statement Wednesday morning that “the response must be harsh, and send a clear message to the entire axis: Iran, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.”

Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett rote on X, “We must act now to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and to fatally cripple this terrorist regime.”

“The octopus’s tentacles are temporarily paralysed — now comes the head. We must remove this terrible threat to our children’s future.”

Bennett earlier went even further telling CNN this is a “once in a 50-year opportunity.”

“We need to take out Iran’s nuclear program, we need to attack Iran’s energy facilities, and we need to attack the regime itself, right away,” Bennett said.

“It’s time to hit, destroy the nuclear program, and finally allow the Iranian people to rise up — the amazing Iranian people, who have one of the worst regimes on earth,” he said.

What do experts say?

Such a scenario could be devastating – and lead to unforeseen consequences.

Ozcelik told NBC News such an attack by Israel would “mark a new high in the tit-for-tat pattern of escalation, and will likely unfurl a chain reaction of unforeseeable events that will endanger US and Western assets, interests and personnel in the region.”

“Israeli retaliation at this stage will be significant, but it may not be the maximalist hit that some on the far-right in Israel are demanding, for now,” Ozcelik added.

They say a hit on oil facilities is likely.

Iran is an OPEC member with production of around 3.2 million barrels per day or three per cent of global output.

As retired US Army Colonel Jack Jacobs told CNBC , “What is really on the table now and is more likely is an attack on oil facilities.”

The scenario could also result in oil prices spiking.

“There has been a lot of complacency about this war,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC on Tuesday. “We do need to think about a scenario where Iranian oil supplies are at risk.”

Some are worried about Iran retaliating by hitting installations of its Gulf neighbours.

An attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure could provoke Tehran to respond with a strike on Saudi oil facilities, similar to one conducted in 2019 on crude processing facilities t

“The effectively available spare capacity might be much lower if renewed attacks on energy infrastructure on countries in the region happen,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a UBS analyst.

The worst case result remains a nuclear exchange.

According to NBC, in December, scholars played out what the situation would look like if Israel and Iran engaged in a stand-off after the 7 October attack.

It ended with both countries targeting each other with nuclear weapons.

With inputs from agencies