Who will choose the next Dalai Lama: Tibet or China?

The Dalai Lama has for the first time explicitly stated that his successor will be born outside China, putting a spotlight onto the longstanding dispute over the Tibetan spiritual leader’s reincarnation.

In his new book Voice for the Voiceless, the 14th Dalai Lama affirms that the next Dalai Lama will be born in the “free world,” ensuring that the institution continues its traditional role of advocating for Tibetan rights and spiritual leadership beyond Chinese control.

“Since the purpose of a reincarnation is to carry on the work of the predecessor, the new Dalai Lama will be born in the free world so that the traditional mission of the Dalai Lama —that is, to be the voice for universal compassion, the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism, and the symbol of Tibet embodying the aspirations of the Tibetan people — will continue,” he writes in the book, reviewed by Reuters.

The statement is a direct challenge to Beijing, which has long asserted that it has the ultimate authority to recognise the next Dalai Lama. China has dismissed the Tibetan leader’s declarations, insisting that any reincarnation must be approved by Beijing.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has reiterated that the lineage of the Dalai Lama developed within China’s Tibet and that his succession must comply with the country’s laws and traditions.

Beijing’s control over Tibet has been a contentious issue since the Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959 following a failed uprising against Chinese Communist rule. He has since lived in exile in Dharamshala, where the Tibetan government-in-exile continues its advocacy for Tibetan rights.

What we know about the tradition of choosing a Dalai Lama

The Dalai Lama is considered a tulku, a reincarnated lineage of the bodhisattva Avalokitesvara, and the tradition of selecting his successor has remained a deeply spiritual process for centuries. The search for a new Dalai Lama involves Tibetan Buddhist monks interpreting visions, signs and dreams.

Historically, the process begins with senior monks looking for omens in the deceased Dalai Lama’s body. For example, after the 13th Dalai Lama’s death, his body initially faced south but later shifted to the east, interpreted as a sign that his reincarnation would be found in that direction.

Monks also seek visions at the sacred Lhamoi Latso lake in Tibet, which is believed to reveal clues about the rebirth’s location.

Once a potential reincarnation is identified, the child undergoes a series of tests, including the ability to recognise objects belonging to the previous Dalai Lama.

The current Dalai Lama, born as Lhamo Dhondup in 1935, was recognised at the age of two after accurately selecting ritual objects used by his predecessor, among other signs.

How China plans to intervene

China claims that it has the final say in the Dalai Lama’s succession. The Chinese Communist Party views the Dalai Lama as a separatist and seeks to control his reincarnation to maintain its grip over Tibet.

In 2011, Beijing declared that only the Chinese government could appoint the next Dalai Lama, rejecting any selection made by the Tibetan religious community in exile.

“The lineage of the Dalai Lama living Buddha was formed and developed in China’s Tibet, and his religious status and name were also determined by (China’s) central government,” said Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.

“The 14th Dalai Lama himself was identified in accordance with religious rituals and historical conventions, and this was submitted to the then central government to approve the succession.”

China has already exercised this control over the Panchen Lama, Tibet’s second-highest spiritual figure.

In 1995, after the Dalai Lama recognised a six-year-old boy, Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, as the Panchen Lama, Chinese authorities abducted him and installed their own candidate, Gyaincain Norbu. To this day, Gedhun Choekyi Nyima remains missing, and his fate is unknown.

How the Dalai Lama hopes to counter China’s influence

Aware of Beijing’s determination to interfere in his succession, the Dalai Lama has proposed several measures to prevent China from installing its own Dalai Lama.

One possibility is that he will announce his reincarnation before his death, thereby eliminating the need for a posthumous search. Another option is that his reincarnation will be born outside of Tibet, most likely in India, where more than 100,000 Tibetan refugees reside.

In a 2004 interview with TIME magazine, he stated, “My life is outside Tibet, therefore my reincarnation will logically be found outside.”

There is precedent to his statement as the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation has not always been found in Tibet. The fourth Dalai Lama, Yonten Gyatso, was born in Mongolia in 1589.

The sixth Dalai Lama, Tsangyang Gyatso, was born in 1682 in Tawang in the north-east Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, not far from Tibet.

In a 2015 interview with BBC, he has also raised the possibility of reincarnating as a woman but humorously added that she would need to be very beautiful because appearance helps in spreading Buddhist teachings.

Additionally, the Dalai Lama has suggested that the institution of the Dalai Lama might no longer be necessary if the Tibetan people decide to end the tradition. However, he has also pointed out that Tibetans have repeatedly urged him to ensure the continuation of the lineage.

Will the Tibetan cause endure?

The question of the Dalai Lama’s successor has drawn attention from global leaders and human rights advocates. The US has expressed opposition to any Dalai Lama chosen by China. In April 2019, then-US Senator Cory Gardner stated that the US Congress would not recognise a Dalai Lama appointed by Beijing.

Prominent figures like actor Richard Gere and former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who led a delegation to visit him in June last year , have voiced support for the Dalai Lama and Tibet’s struggle for self-determination.

In July 2024, then-US President Joe Biden signed into law the Resolve Tibet Act which China opposed calling it “destabilising.”

Despite his advanced age, the Dalai Lama remains hopeful that the Tibetan cause will endure.

In his book, he expresses confidence in the Tibetan parliament-in-exile to continue advocating for Tibet’s rights.

“The right of the Tibetan people to be the custodians of their own homeland cannot be indefinitely denied, nor can their aspiration for freedom be crushed forever through oppression,” he writes in his book. “One clear lesson we know from history is this: if you keep people permanently unhappy, you cannot have a stable society.”

With his 90th birthday approaching in July, the Dalai Lama is expected to provide more details on his succession.

However, the battle over his reincarnation is already shaping up to be a major political and spiritual struggle between Tibetan Buddhists and the Chinese government.

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With inputs from agencies