 "What Nepal’s new ‘pro-China’ PM KP Sharma Oli means for India")
KP Sharma Oli has returned as prime minister of Nepal — this time at the head of a coalition government.
Oli, the head of the second largest party in Parliament, has become the prime minister of Nepal a fourth time.
First elected as prime minister in 2015, Oli was reelected in 2018 with a rare majority government, and then reappointed briefly in 2021 in Nepal’s often turbulent parliament.
Oli, 72, succeeds Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda,’ who lost the vote of confidence in the House of Representatives on Friday.
But what does Oli’s return mean for India?
Let’s take a closer look:
Oli is said to be ‘pro-China.’
As per The Times of India, New Delhi’s main worry is whether or not Oli will sign the implementation plan of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
India has been severely critical of China’s BRI over issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The project includes the so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that passes through Pakistan-Occupied-Kashmir.
Nepal joined China’s flagship initiative in 2017 under its former leader ‘Prachanda.’
It listed 35 projects under the Memorandum of Understanding.
But by 2019, just nine projects were listed under the BRI.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsNot a single project under the BRI has taken off – because Kathmandu is yet to ink the implementation agreement with Beijing.
As per ORF, Prachanda in September 2023 met Xi in Beijing.
At the time, both nations vowed to ‘expedite’ the signing of the implementation plan.
However, the joint statement issued after the meeting only said that the BRI would be implemented at an ‘early date.’
In March, then Nepal foreign minister NK Shrestha visited China.
While some movement forward was expected, the agreement remains in limbo with China’s National Planning Commission.
Sources told the newspaper that India would be happy to work with Oli.
‘Neutral foreign policy’
The Times of India also quoted Oli’s outfit, the Communist Party of Nepal - Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), as saying that he would follow a ‘neutral’ foreign policy.
The party said Oli would secure Nepal’s national interest and its territorial integrity.
It added that he would not allow its soil to be used to target another nation.
The CPN-UML foreign policy chief Rajan Bhattarai told the Times of India, “We have multi-dimensional ties with India that has an important role to play in realising Prosperous Nepal, Happy Nepal.”
“We consider India as an important neighbour, and we won’t allow any activity directed against India from our soil.”
“Our party has a clear view in not allowing any activity directed against another neighbour by taking the side of one neighbour,” Bhattarai added.
According to Indian Express, Oli has vowed to take back land from India land that Nepal claims as its own.
Ties between India and Nepal were severely strained in 2020 after Kathmandu published a new political map that showed the three Indian territories — Limpiyadhura, Kalapani and Lipulekh — as part of Nepal.
As per CNBC, India at the time rejected the map as ‘unilateral.’
Then Prime Minister Oli attempted to use the issue to fend off increasing domestic pressure and challenge his leadership.
A source told The Times of India that Oli would focus on the border issue and the severe trade imbalance.
Oli previously publicly criticised India for allegedly interfering in Nepal’s internal affairs.
Indian Express reported that Oli refused to back down when New Delhi economically blockaded Kathmandu in September 2015.
It reported that India may still be upset over him signing the Transit and Transport Agreement (TTA) with China in March 2016.
The agreement formalises Nepal’s access to the sea in the north if it faces an economic blockade from the Indian side.
But it is also important to note that Oli has formed a government with the support of the centre-left Nepali Congress which leans towards India.
Oli’s party has also made conciliatory noises when it comes to India.
“CPN-UML doesn’t believe that Nepal can progress or the interest of Nepalese people could be promoted by pursuing anti-India policy,” Bhattarai, the Foreign Affairs Department chief and Standing Committee member of the CPN-UML, told PTI.
He said the party’s chairman Oli wants to take Nepal-India relations to new heights as per the demand of the 21st Century.
“We believe that we can attract more foreign investment, promote trade, and attain economic prosperity only by maintaining close friendly relations with India,” he said.
Land-locked Nepal relies heavily on India for the transportation of goods and services.
Nepal is also important for India in the context of its overall strategic interests in the region, and the leaders of the two countries have often noted the age-old ‘Roti Beti’ relationship.
Nepal shares a border of over 1,850 km with five Indian states – Sikkim, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand.
Oli succeeds Prachanda
The leader of Nepal’s largest communist party was appointed as prime minister on Sunday by President Ram Chandra Paudel to lead the coalition government with Nepali Congress (NC), the largest party in Parliament, apart from other smaller parties.
Oli, 72, succeeds Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda,’ who lost the vote of confidence in the House of Representatives (HoR) on Friday, leading to the formation of the new government.
His predecessor and former coalition government ally, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, lost a vote of confidence on Friday, barely 18 months after taking office.
Dahal, a former Maoist guerrilla commander better known by his nom de guerre Prachanda (“The Fierce One”), was forced to step down after Oli’s party withdrew its support.
Oli instead forged a deal with Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress.
He has promised to yield the post to the former five-time prime minister Deuba, 78, later in the parliamentary term.
Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), Oli was sworn in by President Paudel at Shital Niwas, the main building of Rashtrapati Bhawan at a ceremony that was delayed by more than half an hour.
According to the news portal MyRepublica, the swearing-in ceremony was delayed due to the failure of the Nepali Congress to finalise the names of its ministers to join the government amid disputes within the party.
The President also administered oaths to the two Deputy PMs – Prakash Man Singh and Bishnu Paudel – and 19 other ministers. Singh would also look after the Urban Development Ministry while Vishnu Prakash Paudel would look after the Finance Ministry.
Arzoo Rana Deuba, wife of Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba is the foreign minister in the cabinet.
There are 10 cabinet ministers from Nepali Congress; eight, excluding PM, from CPN-UML, two from Janata Samajwadi Party and one from Lokatantrik Samajwadi Party in the government.
Outgoing Prime Minister Prachanda was also present at the ceremony, which was attended by foreign diplomats and other dignitaries.
Earlier on Sunday, President Paudel had appointed Oli as the new Prime Minister under Article 76-2 of the Constitution of Nepal, according to a notice issued by the President’s Office.
On Friday night, Oli had staked his claim to become the next Prime Minister with the backing of NC President Deuba and submitted the signatures of 165 House of Representatives (HoR) members — 77 from his Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) party and 88 from the Nepali Congress. (NC).
Oli will now need to secure a vote of confidence from Parliament within 30 days of appointment, which he is likely to secure easily as the minimum number to form a government in the 275-strong HoR is just 138.
Prachanda faced the vote of confidence as earlier last week, Oli’s party withdrew its support to that coalition and inked a new seven-point deal with Deuba to form a new coalition government.
According to the July 1 deal between NC and CPN-UML, the two parties will lead the government on a rotational basis until the next general elections scheduled for 2027.
Oli served as Nepal’s prime minister from October 11, 2015, to August 3, 2016 and then, from February 5, 2018, to July 13, 2021. He continued to serve from May 13, 2021, to July 13, 2021 — because of an appointment by the then President Bidya Devi Bhandari, described by local media as a success of Oli’s Machiavellian tricks.
Later, the Supreme Court ruled that Oli’s claim to the post of prime minister was unconstitutional.
The country became a federal republic in 2008 after a decade-long civil war and a peace deal that saw the Maoists brought into government and the abolishment of the monarchy.
Since then, a revolving door of ageing prime ministers and a culture of horse-trading have fuelled public perceptions that the government is out of touch with Nepal’s pressing problems.
With inputs from agencies
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