What is Hamas’ new succession plan after leader Yahya Sinwar’s death?

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has left a huge question mark about who will take over his role as the group’s top position. Since the October 7 attacks on Israel, which Sinwar played a major role in planning, Hamas’ senior leadership has been largely eliminated through Israeli military operations.

The group’s previous leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Iran in July, most likely by Israeli forces. When Yahya Sinwar succeeded him, he united the military and political leadership in Gaza, but it seems unlikely to happen again.

After more than a year of intense Israeli strikes that have destroyed Hamas, the group’s future is uncertain. Khalil Al-Hayya, Sinwar’s deputy and a potential successor, has adopted a defiant stance, stating that the Israeli hostages would only be released once Jerusalem withdraws its military forces from Gaza and the conflict ends.

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Notably, Hamas has historically been quick to replace fallen leaders, with its Shura Council responsible for selecting a new leader.

Who will take over the leadership position?

Now, two Hamas sources told AFP that the Palestinian militant group was moving towards selecting a Doha-based ruling committee rather than a single successor to its chief Sinwar. The source said, “The Hamas leadership’s approach is not to appoint a successor to the late chief, the martyr Yahya Sinwar, until their next elections,” scheduled for March, “if conditions permit.”

The source further claimed that a five-member committee that was formed in August following the assassination of Haniyeh “will take over the leadership of the group.”

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This committee was set up to help with decision-making due to the challenges of communicating with Sinwar in Gaza before his death. Sinwar was appointed the Gaza leader of Hamas in 2017 and later assumed overall leadership after Haniyeh’s assassination in July.

Who is part of this committee?

The committee includes representatives from both Palestinian territories and the diaspora: Khalil al-Hayya for Gaza, Zaher Jabarin for the West Bank, and Khaled Meshaal for Palestinians abroad, the source told the news agency. It also includes Mohammed Darwish, head of Hamas’ Shura Council, and the political bureau’s secretary, whose identity remains undisclosed for security reasons.

All current members of the committee are reportedly based in Qatar.

According to the well-informed source, the committee is responsible for “governing the movement during the war and exceptional circumstances, as well as its future plans. He added that it also has the power to “make strategic decisions.”

Another source from the group said that the Hamas leadership discussed a proposal made “internally” to appoint a political chief without announcing their name. But, the source added, the leaders preferred to rule through the committee.

Hamas, Hezbollah and the war

Founded in 1987, Hamas is a branch of the Sunni Islamist Muslim Brotherhood movement. Decisions within the group are generally made through consensus in its governing institutions.

With Sinwar’s death, Gaza’s temporary leadership was transferred to his deputy, Khalil al-Hayya. However, ongoing conflict and communication challenges may limit Hayya’s direct control over daily operations, with experts suggesting that the group’s armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, could take a bigger role in decision-making during this period.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday accused Iran-backed Hezbollah of attempting to assassinate him. According to Netanyahu’s office, a drone was launched towards his residence in Caesarea, but neither he nor his wife were present at the time, and no injuries were reported.

“The attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife today was a grave mistake,” Netanyahu said in a statement.

“Anyone who tries to harm Israel’s citizens will pay a heavy price,” he added.

Iran has warned that the United States would bear “full responsibility” if Israel retaliates against the Islamic Republic after US President Joe Biden indicted that he was aware of Israel’s plans.

In a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and the Swiss presidency of the UN Security Council, Iran’s UN ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, described Biden’s comments as “profoundly alarming and provocative.” When asked by a reporter if he had a clear understanding of Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack on October 1, Biden replied, “yes and yes.”

Hamas, Hezbollah, and other Iran-backed groups in the region have vowed to continue their fight following Sinwar’s death in Gaza.

The Hamas-led October 7 attack resulted in 1,200 deaths and 250 abductions, according to Israeli figures. This led to a large-scale Israeli offensive, which Palestinian authorities say has killed over 42,000 Palestinian people, ruined Gaza, and displaced nearly the entire population from their homes.

With inputs from AFP