What does farmers' protest mean for India ahead of 2024 polls?

Tuesday witnessed much chaos with police deploying tear gas and water cannons against protesting farmers.

Now, on Wednesday, security has been tightened in and around the National Capital with large numbers of personnel being deployed and traffic movement at Singhu and Tikri borders suspended.

Meanwhile, the farmers seem determined to continue their protest.

The development comes just months ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi is eyeing his third straight term.

But what does this mean for India ahead of the polls?

Let’s take a closer look:

What does this mean for India ahead of the polls?

Experts say this could have an impact on the polls.

A piece in Hindustan Times noted that the farmers come from Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh – three politically important states in the Hindi heartland.

It noted that it is a massive challenge for the party and for Modi, who is looking to emulate Jawaharlal Nehru by winning his third straight term.

Punjab has 13 seats in the Lok Sabha.

“The state will witness a multi-cornered contest in the general elections due to INDIA bloc member Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal announcing his decision to contest the elections alone. The BJP, which according to Election Commission data had a vote share of 9.73 per cent in the state in 2019 and just two seats, would have hoped to take advantage of the INDIA split,” the piece noted.

The piece also argued that the BJP might have a tough time winning all 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana – as it did in 2019.

An article in Mint said that farmers in Tamil Nadu have also begun protesting against the Centre.

It argued that the protest puts in peril both Modi’s influence in the Hindi heartland and his attempts to gain a foothold in the South.

But things aren’t looking great for the Congress either.

“…the Congress cuts a sorry figure in the three states that headlined farmers’ protest. It was obliterated by the AAP in Punjab in 2022 assembly polls, and the Kejriwal-led party’s decision to go solo in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections has almost diminished its hopes of a better performance in the state where it won eight out of 13 seats in 2019,” the Hindustan Times piece noted.

But the BJP says it is not concerned about the protests.

Indian Express quoted  some leaders as saying while the protests resulted in ‘bad optics’ for the party in Punjab, they remained upbeat “counter-polarisation” in the state as well as  Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh.

They said the party will slowly “expose the illogicality of the demand for a law to guarantee minimum support price (MSP) for all crops”.

“When Parliament session is over, the Lok Sabha is about to be dissolved, and elections are to be announced, there is no logic in making a demand for a law. It would have made sense had they protested after the new government was formed,”  a BJP leader.

“If some elements in the protest are wearing the mask of being farmers, they should remove it and state their real agenda,” another added.

They argued that the RLD joining the NDA and the Bharat Ratna for ‘Jat King’ Chaudhary Charan Singh would mitigate matters.

“The Bharat Ratna for Chaudhary Charan Singh, the Jat patriarch, will also defuse anger among Jat farmers, if any. The party does not see a big potential in the current agitation to have a similar impact,” an Uttar Pradesh BJP leader told the newspaper.

Political analyst Ramneek Mann told News9 timing is everything.

“Indeed. It is unfortunate for the country, for the community, and for Punjab as well as Haryana as both these states have borne the brunt of consequent protests, one after the other, on one pretext or the other,” Mann said.

“The timing of this protest (very close to the elections) could have been avoided. As a matter of fact, there has been a series of meetings to discuss how MSP could be implemented and the list of crops which could be included in it,” he added.

Mann said 76 farmer groups were protesting this time compared to over 580 farmer unions during the 2020-2021 protests.

“None of those 580 or these 76 unions have cooperated with the government or joined the discussions for MSP. So, the intent is clear – my way or the highway. This is very unfair. Of course there is a political angle to it,” Mann concluded.

What did Congress, AAP say?

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi accused the Modi government of having a “dictatorial attitude” towards the country’s food providers.

Rahul on Tuesday spoke with a farmer injured in police action.

His telephonic conversation on Tuesday night with the injured farmer, Gurmeet Singh, was facilitated by Punjab Congress chief Amarinder Raja Warring who visited a government hospital in Rajpura town of Patiala district after the farmers clashed with Haryana Police.

In a post in Hindi on his WhatsApp channel, Gandhi said, “Talked on phone to former soldier Gurmeet Singh ji, who was seriously injured in police atrocities during the farmers’ movement.”

“Enquired about his health and expressed support to him for their peaceful movement demanding their rights,” the former Congress chief said.

“He is a youth as well as a farmer - instead of hailing him, this dictatorial attitude of the Modi government towards the country’s protector and food provider is putting democracy to shame,” Rahul said.

The Congress on Tuesday had condemned the BJP governments at the Centre and in states for stopping protesting farmers from marching to Delhi and promised to fulfil their key demand of a law guaranteeing MSP for various crops once the INDIA bloc comes to power.

Supporting the farmers’ agitation, the Opposition party asked Prime Minister Narendra Modi to directly talk to them and provide justice.

According to NDTV, the AAP said it had turned down a proposition by the Centre to convert a stadium into a holding space for farmers.

The Kejriwal government termed the farmers’ demands genuine and said it would not “convert a stadium into a jail”.

But home ministry sources told NDTV the request was “for a holding area in case the numbers (of farmers) are overwhelming.”

Delhi home minister Kailash Gehlot said, “The demands of the farmers are genuine. Secondly, it is the Constitutional right of every citizen to make a peaceful protest. It is, therefore, incorrect to arrest the farmers.”

“The Central government, in fact, should invite them over for talks and try to find a solution of their genuine problems. Farmers of the country are our ‘annadata’ and treating them in this way by arresting them would be like rubbing salt into their wounds. We cannot be a party to this decision of the Central Government,” the minister added.

This comes a day after Aam Aadmi Party Rajya Sabha MP Swati Maliwal, calling the visuals of farmers being tear gassed ’extremely worrying’, penned a letter to Modi, according to The Times of India.

“Our farmers, often hailed as the backbone of our nation, are now grappling with a sense of despair and frustration. As I write this, there are 80-year-old protesters among them, their resilience standing as a testament to a lifetime of commitment to the soil that sustains us all,” Mailwal wrote.

Maliwal sought the intervention of the prime minister in the matter.

“It is my earnest request that you personally intervene in this matter and initiate a dialogue that will pave the way for a peaceful resolution,” she concluded.

AAP Delhi convener Gopal Rai on Monday urged the central government to hold dialogue with the protesting farmers and fulfil their demands.

AAP Punjab chief spokesperson Malvinder Singh Kang was quoted as saying by Hindustan Times that the Centre “instead of addressing the underlying issues, they are merely adding fuel to the fire.”

Protests around the world

India’s election isn’t the only one that could be thrown for a loop.

A piece in Bloomberg noted that farming is becoming a battleground across the globe.

“What’s different now is the breadth and potential impact in a year of heightened political risk because of elections in the EU, India, the US and dozens more places,” the piece stated.

“The people in power are trying to tame farmers while opponents from Donald Trump to far-right groups in Europe are trying to harness their anger. It’s become the latest skirmish in a wider culture war, much of it centered on the speed of the economic and social transition in response to climate change.”

It quoted Eric Foucault, a French farmer as saying, “Politicians only want to get elected, so they are latching onto the farmers movement. The right-wing parties, the environmentalists — everyone is piling in.”

Farmers flocked to Paris in droves in January and filled up the streets of Brussels in early February.

Protests have occurred in Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Romania, Poland and Germany.

The EU has done an about face on its environmental targets for agriculture, while President Emmanuel Macron’s government has vowed more subsidies for farmers.

The New Zealand government has talked putting off the world’s first ever farm emissions tax to 2030.

Plans to stop nitrogen pollution in the Netherlands led to Freedom Party leader Geert Wilders’ shock victory.

Trump, who is looking to get back into the Oval Office, will need the support of farmers.

“In my whole life, nobody in a presidential race or who has gone on to be president has ever talked about farmers as much as Donald Trump did,” Cris Peterson, who runs a dairy farm in northwest Wisconson, told Bloomberg.

“I know he’s a big city slicker and everything, but somehow he knew that agriculture was really important to the country.”

With inputs from agencies