 "What are Florida’s special elections? Why are Republicans so worried?")
Republicans in Florida are growing nervous.
The special elections slated for today (April 1) could be close run thing.
Though the Republican candidates will likely win the vacated seats, that hasn’t stopped many in leadership from sounding the alarm.
But what do we know about the special elections? Why are Republicans nervous?
Let’s take a closer look:
What do we know about the special elections?
The special elections are being held for the 1st and 6th Congressional districts.
The seats were won by Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz in November’s election.
Gaetz and Waltz vacated the seats after being picked by the Donald Trump administration for the posts of Attorney General and National Security Advisor (NSA).
However, Gaetz later decided to withdraw his name from consideration for the post of Attorney General after he was the subject of a federal sex trafficking probe and a House Ethics Committee investigation.
Trump eventually picked Pam Bondi for Attorney General – who was duly confirmed by the Senate.
Waltz, who is Trump’s NSA, has found himself in the middle of the firestorm over the Signal app.
Both seats are in Republican strongholds.
According to Time Magazine, the 1st Congressional district is the most Republican area in the entire state.
The 1st Congressional District is witnessing Republican Jimmy Patronis taking on Democrat Gay Valimont.
Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer, has boasted about having Trump’s ‘total and complete endorsement,’ as per Yahoo.com.
Patronis, born in Panama City, is a fourth generation Floridian.
As per Yahoo.com, Valimont is an ex-Emory Sports Medicine athletic trainer hailing from Pensacola.
Valimont, a gun control activist, previously worked with Moms Demand Action to fight for gun laws and background checks.
Valimont took on Gaetz in the November election and lost – receiving just 34 per cent of the vote.
The 6th District borders Alabama on the Gulf Coast in the westernmost part of the Florida panhandle. It is home to both Naval Air Station Pensacola and Eglin Air Force Base. The district is among the most reliably Republican areas of the state.
Trump received about 68 per cent of the district vote in 2024, slightly outperforming the 66 per cent Gaetz received in his reelection bid.
The four counties that make up the 1st District have voted for Republican presidential candidates almost continually for the past 60 years.
The 6th Congressional District has Republican Randy Fine, a state Senator, taking on Democrat Josh Weil, a public school educator in Osceola County.
As per Yahoo.com, Fine has previously served four terms in the Florida House of Representatives.
He too has Trump’s endorsement.
Weil describes himself as a “proud progressive” who works for “the thousands of Floridians who believe in the power of regular people over partisan political games.”
The 6th Congressional District sits on the Atlantic Coast and includes Daytona Beach. Republican presidential candidates have carried all six counties in the district for the last four presidential elections.
As per Yahoo.com, the seat was previously held by Governor Ron DeSantis.
The Republican winning streak in some of the counties stretches back for decades before that. Lake County, for instance, hasn’t supported a Democrat for president since Franklin Roosevelt in 1944.
The 1st Congressional District had nearly 566,000 active registered voters as of March 1 with around 55 per cent Republicans and 21 per cent Democrats.
The 6th District had about 559,000 active registered voters with around 49 per cent Republicans and 26 per cent Democrats.
By all accounts, the Republicans ought to have an overwhelming advantage.
Why are Republicans nervous?
Because, all things considering, the races are fairly close.
As per CNN, Trump won both districts by a plus 30 margin in November’s presidential poll.
Campaign finance reports show Weil also has a huge financial advantage over Fine in the 6th Congressional district.
Weil raised around $9.5 million and has spent 8.2 million, while Fine raised around $1 million and spent around $895,000.
Fine has $93,000 in cash on hand and recently had to give his own campaign $400,000.
The Democrat in the race having such a huge cash advantage in the reliably red state has left Republicans flummoxed.
As per Time, Fine is leading Weil by just three points according to a recent poll.
“There’s a lot of frustration. From my perspective, he was already operating as if he were a member of Congress because it’s such a safe district,” a GOP operative told CNN. “I think it goes to show, no matter what district you’re in, Democrat or Republican, you can’t take things for granted.”
In the 6th District, Valimont too has a huge fundraising advantage over Patronis.
She too has claimed ‘unprecedented fundraising numbers,’ according to The Pensacola News-Journal.
As per Time Magazine, Valimont had raised over $6 million by mid-March.
Patronis, meanwhile, was at around $1.2 million.
According to Time Magazine, though the Republicans had a 40 point advantage in the 6th District in the November poll, early votes are showing that number has been cut in half.
Another point to consider is that special elections usually see much lower turnout than general elections.
Here, the party out of power usually has a huge advantage.
All this plays into the larger picture.
Republicans hold the US House by just a handful of seats (218 to 213) and have an equally tenuous grip on the Senate (53-47).
Trump, who picked a number of high-profile House Republicans for top posts in his administration, didn’t help matters.
In fact, Trump even joked about House Speaker Mike Johnson’s discomfort at the time.
“He didn’t mind,” Trump said. “He could handle it.”
Johnson at the time, half-jokingly, said had “begged and pleaded with the new president to stop.
“He’s very aware of the of the size of the margin,” Johnson said. “But he has an administration to fill, a Cabinet to fill and he’s keeping all this in mind at the same time.”
With inputs from agencies
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