Volcanic eruption looms large in Iceland: How devastating could it be?

Iceland has declared a state of emergency as the Nordic island country braces itself for a volcanic eruption in the coming days. After noticing changes on Sunday that might suggest “magma is moving closer to the surface,” scientists, including those at Iceland’s Met Office, came to the conclusion on Monday that “the greatest area of magma upwelling” is in an area 3.5 kilometres (two miles) northeast of small coastal town Grindavík. Over the weekend, authorities in Grindavik evacuated about 4,000 residents as it prepares for the imminent eruption on the town’s southwest peninsula, as per The Times of India. Although there’s a chance of major damage to nearby infrastructure and the emission of hazardous gases in the case of an eruption, initial worries about much more significant disruption are starting to recede. Earthquakes and volcanic eruption fear In the past few weeks, some 900 earthquakes struck southern Iceland adding to tens of thousands of tremors that rattled the region, according to Hindustan Times. The seismic activity has already had some visible consequences. The Icelandic road authority has shared images on social media of crumbling tarmac, broken sidewalks and large fractures in the road caused by the area’s earthquakes. This is caused by an underground river of magma, which is hot, liquid, or semi-liquid rock that is moving upward beneath the surface of the earth and is around 15 kilometres (10 miles) long, as per BBC. [caption id=“attachment_13387362” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Streetworks continue, after cracks emerged on a road due to volcanic activity near Grindavik. Reuters[/caption] The exact location of the magma’s surface breach will determine the effects of an eruption on Iceland and other countries in relation to aviation. This runs beneath Iceland and a portion of the Atlantic Ocean. The possibility of an eruption of the Fagradalsfjall volcano is “high” and might occur in the next few days, the Icelandic Meteorological Office predicted, which also stated that the magma is presently 800 metres from breaking ground. Because of the possibility of “fire fountains” and toxic gases, Grindavik, which is situated right above the magma, has already been evacuated. BBC quoted Dr Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of Geophysical & Climate Hazards, UCL, as saying, “Grindavik is very close to the position of the new fracture, and its survival is far from assured. Everything depends upon where magma eventually reaches the surface but the situation doesn’t look good for the residents of the town.” What happens if volcano erupts The Civil Protection Agency of Iceland stated on Friday that the country’s 360,000 citizens are experiencing events that they “have not experienced before, at least not since the eruption in Vestmannaeyjar,” which was a 1973 eruption that started suddenly and destroyed 400 homes. Experts predict that a submerged magma eruption will be more powerful than one on land, but an onshore eruption would pose a bigger risk to Grindavík. According to CNN, Michele Paulatto, a research fellow at Imperial College London, said in a statement, “It could become explosive if the magma interacts with sea water. If it erupts undersea, it could cause a Surtseyan eruption similar to the one that happened in 1963, also in Iceland, and created the island of Surtsey. That particular eruption lasted several years, so this is a possibility.” It’s still possible that the magma won’t erupt at all. Dave McGarvie, a volcanologist at the University of Lancaster in the UK, pointed out in a statement, as per CNN, “Not all dikes breach the surface to form eruptions… perhaps only one in every three or four. The best-case scenario is that this happens to the 15-km-long dike that has just formed, and that it simply cools and solidifies – and does not erupt.” The capital city of Iceland, Reykjavík, is located roughly 70 kilometres (43 miles) southwest of Grindavík. Reykjavik has not received an order to evacuate, indicating that authorities do not think an eruption would impact the city. [caption id=“attachment_13387382” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A sign of the village of Grindavik, which was evacuated due to volcanic activity, near Grindavik, Iceland. Reuters[/caption] Travel won’t be affected Volcanic eruptions are common in Iceland, however they usually take place far from towns and cities in the wilderness. A massive ash cloud from the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull volcanic eruption resulted in the largest closure of European airspace since World War II. The estimated costs ranged from 1.5 billion to 2.5 billion euros. The 2010 eruption’s ash cloud threatened to slow aircraft engines and cause electrical failure, resulting in almost 100,000 flights being cancelled and affecting two million passengers, as per CNN. Since this volcanic activity is taking place in a totally different environment, such a large impact is not anticipated. “The Eyjafjallajokull eruption of 2010 was quite different as it was associated with a shield volcano topped by a glacier. It was the interaction of the magma with ice and melt water that made that eruption so explosive and dangerous for aviation. This is not the case for Fagradalsfjall”, said Dr Michele Paulatto, volcanologist at Imperial College London, as per BBC. The reason there are so many volcanoes in Iceland Iceland is situated on a tectonic plate border where tectonic plates are constantly breaking apart, pushing Eurasia and North America apart along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Beneath it lies a strong mantle plume, an area hotter than the surrounding magma that melts and thins the crust of the Earth. Iceland has 32 active volcanoes as a result of these factors. In 1783, Iceland experienced one of its largest eruptions, an eight-month lava flood that produced massive sulphur clouds that hung over Northern Europe for over five months and are estimated to have caused a 1.3 degrees Celsius cooling for the two years that followed. In 2021, the Fagradalsfjall volcanic system erupted for the first time in over 6,000 years. In addition, it posed no threat to populated regions, and in fact, when tourists rushed to see the volcanic explosion, it turned into a tourist attraction, according to The Times of India. With inputs from agencies