Is the US heading to a recession? How fashion trends could give us the answer

The shadow of recession looms large over the United States. We aren’t saying it, Goldman Sachs is. Following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2, the investment banking company increased the likelihood of a recession in the United States from 35 per cent to 45 per cent over the next 12 months.

But what if you aren’t an expert at finance and don’t understand the signs that indicate that a recession is imminent? Perhaps, looking at recent runway collections and clothing trends will help you see signs of economic uncertainty.

As the experts call it, recession indicators, but make them fashion. However, nothing is certain. Some of the theories have obvious holes in them and is far from a guarantee that a recession is close.

More from Explainers

Why Microsoft, Google, Amazon are asking H-1B visa holders not to leave US Trump administration issues apology after threatening to deport Ukrainian refugees in email blunder

But that doesn’t make it any less fascinating to examine.

Corp core trend

The fashion world is experiencing a shift where corporate wear, dubbed ‘Corp Core’, is dominating runways and consumer wardrobes. It’s taking the usual nine-to-five dress code and blending it with evening-ready outfits.

But for many, the love for structured blazers, and business-chic aesthetics is also the latest recession indicator. With hiring freezes, layoffs, and rising inflation, professionals are increasingly dressing to project authority and job security.

As Amaya Kulkarni, a fashion analyst, told Deccan Chronicle, “Fashion is more than just aesthetics —it’s a psychological tool. In times of financial uncertainty, people instinctively lean toward clothing that signals strength, stability, and preparedness. This explains why we’re seeing such a dramatic return to corporate-inspired fashion.”

Editor’s Picks

1

Inflation, job losses and recession? How Trump tariffs have spooked US and the world 2

Recession ahead? Why the US economy is on shaky ground under Trump

Perhaps, that’s why Bottega Veneta’s latest collection featured over 40 per cent corporate wear. Even other major design houses leaned into this trend — think Prada, Yves Saint Laurent and Alexander McQueen. Fashion bible, Vogue, even noted that corporate garb was one of the season’s biggest trends.

The hemline index

Another recession indicator, according to experts, is the hemline of skirts — often referred to as the ‘hemline index’. Proposed by economist George Taylor in 1926, it posits that in times of prosperity, skirt lengths tend to shorten, whereas in times of crisis, they become excessively long.

While many shoot down the hemline index, it’s hard to ignore it. For instance, the miniskirt became trendy in the 1960s when the economy was booming, but when the oil crisis hit in the 1970s, skirts got longer again, as Bloomberg reported.

And now, maxi skirts — ones that go way beyond the knees — have become popular on and off the runway, indicating that a recession is looming. In fact, Madé Lapuerta, the data scientist who is cracking fashion’s codes, noted on her Instagram account, @databutmakeitfashion, that interest in such apparel had risen by 393 per cent in March.

McQueen’s skull returns

According to some, if there was one fashion indicator of a recession it was the return of the Alexander McQueen skull scarf.

Originally making its debut on the runway 2003, it quickly became a status symbol of the early and mid noughties — just as the world was experiencing the burst of the dot-com bubble. Now, it’s made its return on the runway and even celebrities such as Timothee Chalamet have been snapped wearing it, making people believe that an economic downturn is on the horizon.

Peplum tops

Many fashion watchers note that the return of peplum tops on the runways is a sign of an economic slump. However, as Vogue noted, peplum shapes come back in style after moments of crisis — the most famous peplum shape in fashion history is Christian Dior’s New Look jacket, which came after World War II.

Minimalism

More and more people are opting for a minimalist aesthetic when they are looking for clothes. According to @databutmakeitfashion, there’s a 38 per cent increase in minimalist styles in March.

As fashion experts note, minimalist styles are inherently practical and can justify their cost-per-wear in a matter of weeks. Moreover, no matter the occasion, one will always look stylish.

FIT Fashion Business Management Professor Vincent Quan noted in a Marie Claire report that muted colours, covered silhouettes and pared-back details — minimalism — were prevalent even in the run-up to the Great Recession.

Recession hair

Beyond apparel, some people have noted that a new trend in haircare is another recession indicator. It’s called recession blonde — wherein people choose for a darker, more brown-tinted hue for their tresses, as it saves money on the upkeep.

Hair experts note that blonde hair can be quite the investment and oftentimes the more expensive option. And hence, an increasing number of women are opting for ‘recession hair’ or ‘recession blonde’ wherein they’re asking for services that don’t need frequent touch-ups or that can help them transition back or closer to their natural hair colour.

The jury is still out whether the US is heading to a recession — Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, told HuffPost that the possibility of a recession is “uncomfortably high and rising” — but fashion is, perhaps, giving us the tell-tale signs.

With inputs from agencies