Why is Kamala Harris the best option to replace Biden? What are her chances against Trump?

Is Joe Biden pulling out of the US presidential race? It is a question that the world is asking and one that has left America divided.

More and more Democrats are calling on the president to step aside after his poor performance in the debate against Donald Trump . Both Senate and House Democrats met on Tuesday to discuss the presidential campaign. After the meeting, several refused to say whether they backed Biden or not, according to a report on CNN.

The signs are there for all to see. There is no consensus over the incumbent president’s electoral viability. Yet Biden remains adamant. He insists that only “the Lord Almighty” can convince him to quit the presidential race.

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However, if he changes his mind, Vice President Kamala Harris is the best positioned to replace him. We tell you why and what are her chances against Donald Trump, the former president and Republican nominee.
Why Harris is Biden’s most natural endorsement

Amid the growing buzz about Biden, several names have been doing the rounds. Some of the most discussed Democratic alternatives are California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

However, Harris would have a head start over them. She has already been on a winning presidential ticket with Biden, has years of goodwill banked with core party constituencies and would likely control a huge campaign fund amassed by the Biden reelection, according to The Associated Press (AP).

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The president easily locked up the Democratic nomination and party rules prevent him from simply transferring the delegates he amassed during next month’s Democratic National Convention. But several delegates have already suggested they’d be loyal to Harris.

Biden picking Harris could limit potential chaos and avoid floor fights that can cause lasting damage to whoever emerges to take on Trump.

“Harris makes the most sense to carry on the Biden legacy,” Andrew Feldman, a Democratic strategist, who works closely with various state parties, told AP, emphasising that the the question was purely hypothetical since Biden insists he won’t bow out. He added that the Biden administration’s agenda “has been tremendously popular in terms of the issues that they’ve championed” and that the president and Harris have “been doing that in partnership”.

According to Antjuan Seawright, a South Carolina-based Democratic strategist, voters four years ago put 78-year-old Biden in the Oval Office knowing Harris was next in line, and that Biden warded off primary challengers this year at age 81 with Democratic voters knowing Harris remained his second-in-command. “Democrats have voted for Joe Biden with Kamala Harris,” Seawright said.

What works for Harris

Harris is the first woman to serve as vice president and the first Black woman and person of South Asian descent. African Americans are the largest and most loyal bloc of supporters for Democrats.

Bypassing a historic No 2 for anyone else — even a popular alternative from a key swing state — would already be difficult. Being seen as leading the charge against someone who broke gender and racial barriers could forever mark the challenger as disloyal in future Democratic primaries.

Glynda Carr, who leads the Higher Heights political action committee which supports Black women candidates in the US, told AP that public suggestions that Harris could be bypassed for another top Democrat in Biden’s absence shows “just how much Black women are oftentimes overlooked”. “You want Black women to organise our houses, our blocks, our churches, our sororities?” Carr asked. “Then we’ve got to stand by our leadership.”

Democratic Representative Jasmine Crockett of Texas said it is “impossible to understate” what it means for Black women to see Harris hold national office.

That is not all. In case Biden drops out, a switch in campaign finances will be smoother. The vice president, as his official running mate, can access the $91 million cash on hand the president’s campaign has raised — which grows to $240 million when including allied Democratic organisations — in ways Democratic alternatives likely can’t.

For his part, Trump is already attempting to energise donors with the idea that Democrats could swap out Biden for Harris. The former president sent fundraising emails Monday titled “Biden’s dropping out” and “President Kamala Harris?”

Harris’s legal background might also work in her favour. The 59-year-old is 22 years Biden’s junior. A former prosecutor, she can deliver a withering attack in a debate — as Biden himself once faced during the 2020 Democratic presidential primary when Harris tore into him over his onetime opposition to school busing as a means of desegregation.

The veep’s legal background might also hew more closely to the ideals of today’s Democratic Party, which has largely moved to the centre on criminal justice and law-and-order messaging in recent years after nationwide protests against racial injustice in 2020 helped energize the “defund the police” movement, reports AP.

What about polls and approval ratings say?

According to a recent poll conducted by the Democratic firm Bendixen & Amandi, dynamics are shifting in the 2024 presidential race.

Harris and former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton currently have a better chance against former Trump than Biden, the survey reveals

The poll reveals a tight race between Trump and Biden, with Trump leading by a single percentage point (43 per cent to 42 per cent). However, when up against Trump, Harris and Clinton fare slightly better, with Harris leading 42 per cent to 41 per cent and Clinton leading 43 per cent to 41 per cent.

A CNN poll found that while Trump leads against Biden by six percentage points (49 per cent to 43 per cent), Harris trails the Republican by a narrow margin (47 per cent to 45 per cent). Another Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Harris and Trump nearly tied with 42 per cent supporting the veep and 42 backing the latter.

But what are the challenges before Harris?

Harris’s White House tenure has been characterised by a lacklustre start, staff turnover, and early policy portfolios including migration from Central America that did not produce major successes, reports Reuters.

A White House bid would be a big turnaround for Harris who was seen by many in the Biden administration as politically weak. As recently as last year, many inside the White House and the Biden campaign team privately worried Harris was a liability for the campaign.
The situation has changed significantly since then, Democratic officials have said, as she stepped forward on abortion rights and courted young voters.

Jamal Simmons, a longtime Democratic strategist and Harris’s former communications director, told the BBC that she had long been underestimated. “Whether she’s a partner to the president or she has to lead the ticket, she is somebody who Republicans and the Trump campaign need to take seriously.”
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With inputs from agencies_