Do vice president picks really matter? The 2024 White House race raises the stakes

As the United States gears up for another presidential election, the spotlight has intensified on the significance of vice-presidential selections.

With US Vice President Kamala Harris expected to announce her running mate soon and US Senator JD Vance already named as Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s partner, many are pondering the true impact of these choices.

Historical precedence, expert opinions, and current political dynamics all offer a comprehensive view of how crucial vice-presidential picks can be.

A historical lens into the role of the vice president

US Vice-presidential picks have occasionally played pivotal roles in US history. Out of 49 vice presidents, nine have ascended to the presidency due to the death or resignation of the sitting president.

More from Explainers

How ChatGPT is becoming everyone’s BFF and why that’s dangerous This Week in Explainers: How recovering from Gen-Z protests is a Himalayan task for Nepal

The first instance was John Tyler, who became president after William Henry Harrison’s death in 1841. The most recent case was Gerald Ford, who took office following Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974.

Also Read | Kamala Harris to unveil vice president choice soon: Who is on the short list?

According to AP, these transitions have led to significant moments, such as the Reconstruction era under Andrew Johnson and the Civil Rights Act’s signing during Lyndon Johnson’s presidency.

Historian Joel Goldstein highlights the importance of being prepared for such transitions: “For most vice presidents, succession is something that you have to think about and plan for, but it doesn’t happen. But when it happens, you’ve got to be ready.”

Impact Shorts

More Shorts

Ghaziabad woman dead, pilgrims attacked in bus… How Nepal’s Gen-Z protests turned into a living hell for Indian tourists

Were bodyguards involved in Charlie Kirk’s shooting? The many conspiracies surrounding the killing

What is the influence of running mates on elections?

The selection of a vice-presidential candidate can provide voters with insights into the presidential nominee’s values and decision-making processes.

According to Christopher Devine, associate professor of political science at the University of Dayton and co-author of Do Running Mates Matter?: The Influence of Vice Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections, the choice of a running mate can shape public perception of the presidential candidate.

“People get a lot of clues about what a future president might look like based on this selection,” Devine tells CBS News. He asserts that voters often evaluate a VP pick’s qualifications, especially their potential readiness to assume the presidency.

However, the historical impact of VP picks on election outcomes is mixed. Devine notes that common myths, such as a VP pick delivering their home state or specific voter demographics, are often overstated.

Instead, he clarifies that while the vice-presidential choice is one factor among many, it rarely sways the election’s outcome significantly.

The 2024 US presidential election: Harris and Vance

In the 2024 election, Harris is navigating her campaign’s early stages, with a running mate announcement anticipated soon. Harris’s choice is pivotal, particularly in light of her position as the first female vice president and her potential to be the first female president.

Her selection process, dubbed “Veepstakes,” is seen as a critical decision, especially considering the recent assassination attempt on Trump, the GOP nominee, which has heightened the stakes.

On the Republican side, Vance’s nomination has sparked debate. Vance, a young senator from Ohio, has faced scrutiny over his past statements and perceived opportunism. Critics like Sofia Nelson, a Yale Law School classmate, describe him as a “chameleon” who has shifted his views on numerous issues.

Despite this, Republican strategist Mike Gonidakis believes Vance’s relatable story and alignment with Trump’s “America First” vision will energise the base, reported NBC 4i news. However, Democratic strategist Dale Butland contends that Vance’s selection may be a “major mistake,” suggesting that it appeals too narrowly to the MAGA base without broadening the GOP’s appeal.

What strategic considerations are seen?

The choice of a running mate often involves strategic considerations aimed at balancing the ticket. For example, Barack Obama, the first Black president, selected Joe Biden, an experienced senator from Scranton, Pennsylvania, to appeal to working-class white voters. Biden, in turn, chose Harris, marking the first time a woman of color was on a major party’s presidential ticket.

For Harris, potential running mates include individuals like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, known for his liberal credentials, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a highly effective communicator.

However, each option comes with its pros and cons. Shapiro, while potentially helpful in Pennsylvania, is relatively unknown nationally. Buttigieg, though a strong media presence, is only slightly older than Vance and lacks extensive executive experience.

Can the choice backfire?

Choosing the right running mate is crucial, as a poor choice can backfire. The 2008 selection of Sarah Palin by John McCain is often cited as a cautionary tale. Palin’s lack of preparedness and numerous gaffes highlighted the potential downsides of picking a running mate primarily for political gain.

Similarly, Mitt Romney’s 2012 choice of Paul Ryan brought attention to Ryan’s controversial budget proposals, which may have hurt Romney’s campaign.

Devine argues that a safe, qualified choice is generally wiser than a risky, flashy one. “Voters see through it. They know when someone has been chosen for political reasons,” he says.

This perspective underlines the importance of selecting a running mate who not only complements the presidential candidate but also can step into the presidency if necessary.

With inputs from agencies