US elections: Does Kamala Harris have a real chance of beating Donald Trump?

United States vice president Kamala Harris is in the thick of things after Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race, endorsing her as his replacement. The 59-year-old kickstarted her election rally on Tuesday (July 23), launching an offensive against her Republican rival Donald Trump.

Addressing a crowd of about 3,000 in the battleground state of Wisconsin, Harris likened the former US president to “predators”, “fraudsters” and “cheaters” she had prosecuted. Trump, on the other hand, attacked her over her record on the border, writing on social media: “Lyin’ Kamala Harris destroys everything she touches!”

While Harris is yet to become the official Democratic nominee for the November presidential election, she has already been endorsed by a majority of her party delegates.

With the US vice president’s high likelihood of being chosen as the candidate at the Democratic convention next month, what are her chances of actually defeating Trump?

Let’s take a look.

What do polls say?

Harris has gained a slight edge over Trump since Biden withdrew from the presidential race on Sunday and endorsed her.

According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday, the Democrat has the support of 44 per cent of surveyed Americans nationally, compared to her Republican opponent’s 42 per cent, giving her a two-point lead.

In the poll conducted last week before Biden ended his campaign, Harris and Trump were tied at 44 per cent, reports AFP.

The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll conducted on Monday shows Trump is backed by 46 per cent of registered US voters to Harris’ 45 per cent. Nine per cent of those surveyed said they were undecided.

If third-party candidates or independents enter the race, Harris and Trump are tied at 42 per cent.

An average of polls collated by RealClearPolitics shows that Trump has a narrow edge of 1.6 percentage points against Harris, reported AFP.

Previous polls conducted before Biden’s announcement projected Harris lagging behind the former president.

According to an analysis done by the Washington Post of 11 different polls, Trump surpassed the vice president by 1.5 percentage points. This was a slight improvement from Biden, who trailed behind Trump by 1.9 percentage points.

Can Harris beat Trump?

Harris’ endorsement by Biden has fuelled the Democrats with enthusiasm. The swell in support for her by senior figures, including former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is an indication that the party has placed its trust in her to go against Trump.

The Democratic Party’s front-runner has raised over $100 million in donations in the 36 hours after Biden’s exit.

Harris is the younger candidate in the race as concerns over Biden’s age do not apply to her. In fact, Trump, at 78, is now the older competitor.

The Republican’s unpopularity could benefit Harris’ campaign. As per the polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), 53 per cent of Americans do not view Trump favourably.

As per FiveThirtyEight polling, which was held before Biden dropped out, about 51 per cent of Americans disapprove of Harris to 38 per cent who approve. This dislike was higher for Trump, who was not favoured by 53 per cent of Americans, while 39 per cent approved of him.

The abortion issue also gives Harris an advantage over Trump, who took sole credit for the Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade.

Democrats have won state elections wherever abortion rights were on the ballot, even in conservative states like Kansas and Kentucky. Trump has realised this and toned down his rhetoric against abortion.

Harris, who could be America’s first female president, is expected to make reproductive rights one of her key poll planks and take Trump head-on over the issue.

Her potential Democratic nomination is also historic as she could become the first Black woman president of the US. If she wins the November race, she will be the first American president of Asian heritage.

This puts her in a better position among voters that Biden could not impress: young and non-white. Harris could also win over conservatives who do not want to elect an elderly Trump and the young leftists who are seeking a progressive candidate.

Speaking to Fortune, Barbara Perry, a renowned presidential historian who has authored multiple books about the presidency, said Harris is the perfect candidate to trump the former US president.

With Harris, “you can’t get more of a contrast from Donald Trump.” “She’s a woman of colour with interesting heritage, with her dad coming from Jamaica and her mother coming from India, and her pulling herself up by her own bootstraps. That’s the American Dream story,” she said.

Perry said Harris is the “perfect person to run against him”, challenging Trump’s “misogyny”.

What could go wrong for Harris?

If Trump is unpopular, so is Harris. According to the The Hill/DDHQ polling average, Harris is behind Trump by nearly 3 percentage points nationally. The average shows that her disapproval rating stood at 56 per cent, while she was favourably viewed by just 38 per cent of Americans.

As The Hill noted, this means that the Democratic enthusiasm for her candidature has not replicated among voters on the ground. The voters’ bias against electing a female president, that too a Black woman, could damage Harris’ chances.

She is already facing Trump’s sexist remarks and is being scrutinised on social media for her laughter. Harris will have to overcome the challenge of being held to higher standards than her old white male rival.

Trump’s campaign has downplayed Harris’ recent lead over the Republican, attributing it to recent media glare on her.

Pollster Tony Fabrizio told Reuters that Harris’ popularity will probably wane ultimately.

There are concerns that her election campaign could be a bust like last time. Harris would also go into this election with the issue of immigration looming over her head, noted The Hill.

She is linked with immigration in the public mind and Trump will make sure to hold her accountable.

With inputs from agencies