Why Tuesday’s elections in US are a big political test for Trump

Will it be a terrific Tuesday or terrible Tuesday for Trump?

US President Donald Trump will face his first true test today (November 4), as millions of Americans will head to the polls in several notable local and statewide elections for the first time since last November’s presidential race.

For Trump, the results of today’s contests will be seen as either a major rejection or resounding stamp of approval of his second term. But the results also matter for the Democrats; the results will offer the Democratic Party its biggest chance yet to assert its viability as a serious opposition party.

As voter gear up to cast their votes, we take a closer look at what’s on the ballot today, and why it matters.

What’s on the ballot today across America?

Across the US today, some major statewide and local races are taking place.

One of them is the highly-anticipated mayoral election in New York City. The race to lead America’s largest city features Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani , independent candidate and former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa. The winner will replace outgoing Mayor Eric Adams, who initially sought re-nomination as a Democrat. After losing the primary to Mamdani, Adams opted to run as an independent, but dropped out of the race in September and has eventually endorsed Cuomo.

This race has caught more attention not only in the US but across the globe with Trump frequently criticising Mamdani — even calling him a “ Communist lunatic ” and a “total nut job”. And on the eve of the election, Trump even issued a threat to its voters: stop Zohran Mamdani or pay.

“If Communist candidate Zohran Mamdani wins the election for mayor of New York City, it is highly unlikely that I will be contributing federal funds, other than the very minimum as required, to my beloved first home,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “I don’t want to send, as president, good money after bad.”

Besides the New York mayoral race, there’s also the governorship races in Virginia and New Jersey. In New Jersey, former Republican New Jersey state Representative Jack Ciattarelli is making his third run for governor, after losing to Democratic Governor Phil Murphy in 2021. He’s facing off against Mikie Sherrill, who’s trying to deliver Democrats a third consecutive term in the governor’s mansion.

In Virginia, Republican Lt Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and Democratic former US Representative Abigail Spanberger look to replace term-limited Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin.

There’s also the contest for Virginia’s attorney general taking place today along with the race to control the Minnesota Senate and Virginia House of Delegates. Detroit, Pittsburgh, Jersey City and Buffalo are also going to the polls today to elect new mayors. Incumbents in Atlanta, Minneapolis, and Cincinnati are also seeking re-election.

What else is America voting on today?

Besides these electoral battles, California will be voting on Proposition 50, which will allow Democrats to temporarily change the boundaries of US House districts and make them more favourable to the party.

Championed by Governor Gavin Newsom, this measure is in response to a new Texas map that state Republicans enacted in August as part of Trump’s efforts to keep the US House under Republican control in the 2026 midterms.

Control of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court will also be at stake today when voters cast their votes on whether to retain three justices from the high court’s 5-2 Democratic majority.

Why do these elections matter to Trump?

It’s interesting to note that while Trump isn’t on the ballot in any of today’s races, the results will be significant for the US president.

Firstly, the outcome of the governor races in Virginia and New Jersey could offer a window into some of the headwinds facing Trump and Republicans going into next year’s midterm polls. According to an NPR report, the governor races have historically been a harbinger — often predicting the results of upcoming midterms.

In fact, in New Jersey, Jack Ciattarelli has modelled himself on the US president — slamming “open borders” and aligning with far-right figures. Many note that by copying Trump’s tone, Ciattarelli hopes to energise the conservatives. If it is successful, he would be redefining Republican strategy in Democrat-dominated states.

Moreover, Tuesday’s vote will show if the Hispanic shift, which was seen in the 2024 presidential elections, still holds or was it a one-time reaction to Trump himself.

The governor’s race in Virginia between Winsome Earle-Sears and Abigail Spanberger is also significant for Trump and his ongoing government shutdown.

Northern Virginia is home to scores of federal employees, contractors and others who work with the federal government — the kind of people who are directly affected by Trump administration’s push to downsize the federal government. Experts note that it is from there, more than anywhere else, that one will get an early sense of whether the cuts resonate at the ballot box.

As Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster told the New York Times, “Watch the turnout in Northern Virginia. “If it is relatively low compared to past elections, you can conclude that the actions of the administration aren’t having much of an impact. If it’s higher than past elections, you can conclude it’s a reaction against many of the actions of the administration.”

The California vote is also very important for Trump. Many experts, in fact, note that it might be the most important election, as it pertains to how California draws its districts. Currently, the law states that to redraw a state’s districts requires an independent commission. But Proposition 50 would temporarily get rid of that requirement. Governor Newsom is trying to squeeze out more Democratic seats. This will offset gains Trump is trying to make in redrawing in red states like Texas.

Ahead of the polls, the White House sought to downplay the stakes. “Every week is pivotal when Americans have a president who is all gas, no brakes on his push to Make America Great Again,” said Kush Desai, a White House spokesman.

What is the significance of these polls for the Democrats?

If Tuesday’s elections are important for Trump, they are equally important for the Democratic Party. As Ken Martin, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, told the New York Times, the victories on Tuesday would help his party head into 2026 with “a head full of steam.”

“Where there were once strong headwinds against the Democratic Party, there now seems to be wind at our back and momentum for sure,” Martin said. He insisted, “It’s not just an anti-Trump wave that we’re seeing,” but a powerful chord that Democrats have struck with their message on economics and affordability.

Tuesday’s polls will also show the Democrats what type of candidate to be. For instance, Mamdani in New York City has focused on affordability. Meanwhile, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia is running on “tradition” and “service,” and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey stresses her military credentials. But the truth is Democrats are in the wilderness, and there’s no perfect way to run.

For California Governor Gavin Newsom , the Proposition 50 vote can also be seen as him trying to build a national base. As Moneycontrol reports, if he wins, it won’t be just a policy victory, but also an early test run for a possible 2028 presidential bid.

So, even while the results won’t change the presidency, it will have a larger impact.

With inputs from agencies