Will US campus protests over Gaza cost Joe Biden the presidency?

Will the pro-Palestinian protests across US campuses cost President Joe Biden the race in November?

That’s the worry gnawing at some Democrats as Biden gears up to face former president Donald Trump in the rematch no one wanted – according to the polls.

While Biden himself hasn’t said much except slam “anti-semitic protests” and “those who don’t understand what’s going on with the Palestinians,” the White House has repeatedly issued statements denouncing ‘anti-semitism’ on campuses.

That rhetoric is sure to infuriate young people who say they are merely protesting the actions of the Israeli government against civilians in Gaza and not condemning the Jewish people.

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The development comes as tension at colleges and universities has been building days.

As some demonstrators have refused to remove encampments, administrators have turned to law enforcement to clear them by force.

This has led to clashes that have seized attention from politicians and the media.

So, will the protests affect the incumbent’s prospects in November?

Let’s take a closer look:

What do young people care about?

First, there is some good news for Biden.

Some polls shows that Gaza isn’t the top priority for the youth.

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NBC quoted a new Harvard University poll as saying that voters 18-29 thought that inflation and health care were the most important issue ahead of the polls.

These were followed by tackling gun violence, safeguarding democracy, combating climate change and protecting women’s reproductive rights.

Just two per cent of young voters who responded to the poll said the war is their top priority, Axios reported.

The war is the top concern of only two of young voters, well below the economy, inflation and immigration.

The Guardian quoted the same survey as showing that just over half (51 per cent) of young voters wanted a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

Meanwhile, only 10 per cent said they were against it.

But Biden is also notably less popular with young voters than he was four years ago.

The Guardian quoted the Harvard poll as showing that Biden has just an eight point lead among voters aged 18 to 29.

In 2020, Biden had a 23-point advantage among the yough vote.

The newspaper quoted the poll as showing that 6 in 10 of voters 18 to 29 said the country was going in the right direction.

Just nine per cent said things are “generally headed in the right direction”.

Axios similarly quoted a CNN poll as showing that Biden had a 31 per cent edge on Trump with young voters in 2020.

However, Trump has actually improved his lot by double digits (11 per cent) among voters 18-34 this year as per the poll.

The issue also divides voters on party lines.

The Guardian quoted a March Gallup poll as showing that 71 per cent of Republicans approved of “the military action Israel has taken in Gaza."

For Democrats, that figure was just 36 per cent.

What do experts say?

That Biden, who has referred to himself as a ‘Zionist’, chooses to ignore young people’s views on the war in Gaza at his own peril.

Some say young people may simply choose not to vote for him.

As Jonathan Zimmerman, a professor of history of education at the University of Pennsylvania, told The Guardian, “The real threat to Biden is that younger voters, especially college-educated voters, won’t turn out for him in the election.”

“I wouldn’t expect that the protesters on campuses today are going to vote for Trump, almost none of them will. That’s not the danger here. The danger is much simpler: that they simply won’t vote.”

Others say Biden needs to do a better job addressing their feelings.

John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, told NBC, “One of the first things that a young person tells me is that they don’t feel understood.”

“There needs to be a recognition that we’re working seriously toward a permanent cease-fire. There needs to be recognition that we’re moving toward a two-state solution. There needs to be recognition that we do everything humanly possible to free the hostages and give people dignity.”

Some insiders are worried the development might benefit Trump.

“The most fundamental question in this election is which candidate is about order and which about chaos,” Matt Bennett, a co-founder of the centrist Democratic organization, Third Way, was quoted as saying by Axios. “Though Trump is the greatest chaos agent in the history of the presidency, these or other protests might help him win that argument.”

They also warned against tamping down on protests.

Ralph Young, a history professor at Temple University, told The Guardian, “A heavy-handed response to protests is basically not going to put them down. It’s just going to increase the protests and strengthen them, because then it becomes a question of free speech."

Young, who has worked on subject matter like protest movements in the US, said the issue plays badly for Democrats.

“The main negativity on this is for the Democrats. What Biden needs in order to win is a very heavy turnout of Democrats. If he loses even 10 per cent of the Democratic vote and even if that does not go to Trump, I think the chances are slim for Biden to get re-elected,” Young said.

“If there is a ceasefire, or if things ease up, then maybe cooler heads will prevail and things will settle down. Maybe then the protests will not have as much of an impact on the election. But the longer they go on, the more impact they will have.”

The College Democrats of America, an organisation that has previously come out in favour of Biden, hailed the “bravery” of students “to stand up for the rights and dignity of the Palestinian people.”

“Each day that Democrats fail to stand united for a permanent ceasefire, two-state solution, and recognition of a Palestinian state, more and more youth find themselves disillusioned with the party,” the College Democrats as per CNN.

A long-time progressive consultant, speaking to CNN, warned of “a pretty significant disconnect” between the party base and its elected representatives.

“Even the Biden people who think the progressive base will come around no matter what do think ‘We have to worry about Bernie,’ or ‘We have to care about Warren,” the strategist said. “But (Sanders and Warren) are not going to the White House and saying, ‘You really got to do something about this.’”

Unfortunately, there seem to be no easy answers.

“If politics was driving this, the president obviously would have changed course months ago,” one senior Democratic adviser told CNN. “But there is not a simple political solution to this. It’s driven by complex policy decisions without easy answers.”

As per NBC, the White House, meanwhile, is having Biden and vice-president Kamala Harris keep a relatively low profile when it comes to one campus tradition – commencement addresses.

Biden is set to deliver speeches at the famed Morehouse College and the US Military Academy at West Point next month, while Harris will speak at the Air Force Academy.

Jill Biden is also expected to deliver a commencement speech.

Former president Barack Obama, during his 2012 reelection campaign, spike at the Air Force Academy, Barnard College and Joplin High School.

Biden, then vice-president, addressed graduates of West Point and high schools in Virginia and Florida.

NBC quoted White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre as saying Biden thinks these speeches are “a special time to deliver a message — an encouraging message, a message that’s hopefully uplifting to the graduates and their families.”

“He is going to do his best to meet that moment as it relates to what’s going on, the pain that communities are feeling,” she added.

Another 1968 in the offing?

Some are worried history will repeat itself.

Specifically 1968, when the Democrats converged in Chicago to pick their vice-presidential candidate and finalise their platform in the backdrop of the Vietnam War.

The chaotic scenes of police attacking protesters horrified the nation and propelled Richard M Nixon ’law and order’ candidacy to the presidency.

“There is a parallel that’s unavoidable,” Bill Ayers, the founder of the Weather Underground and former militant, told The Economist. “And that is that Hubert Humphrey, the great liberal from the Midwest, tried way too late to extract himself from being a cheerleader for Vietnam.”

Ayers, then leader of Students for a Democratic Society, first became part of history by being beaten and arrested by the police in 1968.

“Irony of history,” Ayers added.

“How could Richard Nixon be elected as a peace candidate? Here’s a great anti-communist warmongering prick.”

Ayers himself voted against Nixon.

“I always vote for the lesser of two evils,” he told the outlet. “Because they’re less evil.”

Trump, meanwhile, is making hay on the subject.

“Nobody knows where the US stands right now. I think Biden is not on the side of Israel, and he’s making a tremendous mistake. You have to clean up the terror that we witnessed on 7 October,” Trump told Fox News on Tuesday.

“Biden is supposed to be the voice of our country. And it’s certainly not much of a voice. It’s a voice that nobody’s heard,” Trump added. “I don’t think he’s able to do it. I don’t think he’s got what it takes to do it. But he’s got to. He’s got to strengthen up and he’s got to be heard.”

With inputs from agencies