Undersea cable cuts in the Baltic: Is Russia behind the sabotage?

Two undersea communication cables in the Baltic Sea were severely damaged, fuelling suspicions of sabotage amid rising geopolitical tensions.

The cables, linking Finland and Germany, as well as Lithuania and Sweden, were disrupted on consecutive days, igniting concerns over possible Russian interference with critical global infrastructure.

These incidents come at a time when both Sweden and Finland, recent members of Nato, have heightened security measures in response to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the increasing risks posed by hybrid warfare tactics.

How happened to the undersea cables?

The first incident occurred on Sunday morning, with Telia Lithuania confirming the disruption of a communication cable connecting Lithuania to Gotland Island in Sweden. The disruption, which began around 10:00 AM local time, was caused by physical damage to the fiber-optic cable itself, as confirmed by company spokesperson Audrius Stasiulaitis who spoke to CNN.

According to Stasiulaitis, the company’s monitoring systems detected the outage and ruled out any technical failure of equipment, noting that it was the result of “physical damage to the cable.” The affected cable was critical, handling around one-third of Lithuania’s internet traffic, though capacity has since been restored.

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The second disruption occurred early on Monday morning, affecting the C-Lion cable, a crucial undersea link between Finland and Germany. Spanning nearly 1,200 kilometers (approximately 746 miles), the C-Lion cable is the only direct communication connection between Finland and Central Europe.

The Finnish telecommunications company Cinia, which operates the cable, confirmed the fault and described it as a sudden and unanticipated outage. Cinia has yet to conduct a physical inspection but suggested the damage could have been caused by an external force, given the nature of the disruption.

Both cables are essential parts of the region’s telecommunications infrastructure, and their disruption has raised alarm bells, especially as both Finland and Sweden joined Nato in the past two years, making them key strategic players in Europe’s security.

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Was it a sabotage?

The timing of the cable disruptions, along with their location and nature, has led many to suspect intentional damage. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius expressed doubts that the damage was accidental, stating, “No one believes that these cables were cut accidentally. I also don’t want to believe that the ships’ anchors caused the damage by accident.”

While no party has directly accused any specific actor, Germany has acknowledged the possibility that this could be a case of “hybrid warfare,” a term used to describe actions involving a mix of conventional and unconventional tactics, including cyberattacks and sabotage, aimed at undermining the stability of a state or region.

The Finnish and German foreign ministers issued a joint statement expressing their “deep concern” over the damage to the C-Lion cable. They stated the growing threat not only from Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine but also from hybrid warfare tactics targeting critical infrastructure.

We are deeply concerned about the severed cable in the Baltic Sea, raising suspicions of intentional damage. An investigation is underway. Our shared security relies on protecting critical infrastructure. Full statement by @ElinaValtonen and @ABaerbock: https://t.co/jfgHlFLduP pic.twitter.com/5oM46cFZdb

— GermanForeignOffice (@GermanyDiplo) November 18, 2024

“Our European security is not only under threat from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors,” the statement read.

Why are fingers pointing towards Russia?

While the parties involved in both incidents — Germany, Finland, Sweden, and Lithuania —  have refrained from making direct accusations, Russia has quickly come under scrutiny. The region has witnessed increased Russian military activity in recent months, including reports of spy ships operating in Nordic waters.

These activities have fuelled fears that Russia may be targeting undersea cables, wind farms, and other critical infrastructure in an attempt to disrupt European economies and sow chaos.

The United States has also raised alarms, warning earlier this year that Russia’s activities in the Baltic Sea were becoming more aggressive, including attempts to interfere with undersea infrastructure.

Two US officials informed CNN in September that the US intelligence community believed Russia was increasingly likely to engage in sabotage operations against such vital infrastructure.

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This warning followed a joint investigation by several Nordic countries, which revealed that Russia had a fleet of suspected spy ships operating in the region. These vessels were reportedly part of a broader campaign of potential sabotage against underwater cables and wind farms.

In 2022, explosions targeting the Nord Stream pipelines, which transport Russian natural gas to Germany, added to the growing concerns about the security of undersea infrastructure.

While investigations into that attack continue, there are still no definitive answers regarding who was responsible. However, theories abound, with both Russia and Ukraine being cited as potential perpetrators.

When will the cables be repaired?

The disruption to both cables has prompted swift responses from the companies involved. Cinia, the Finnish operator of the C-Lion cable, has already deployed a repair vessel to the site.

While the company has not provided a specific timeline for the repairs, it indicated that the process typically takes between five and 15 days, depending on weather conditions.

Meanwhile, the Lithuanian cable, operated by the Swedish company Arelion, is also expected to be repaired in the coming weeks. The company confirmed that it was working closely with Swedish authorities, including the Swedish Armed Forces, to investigate the incident.

Arelion spokesperson Martin Sjögren noted that the damage to the cable had been detected through routine 24/7 monitoring of the network. The company did not specify the exact timeframe for repairs but stated that weather conditions would play a significant role in the repair schedule.

Why is this development important?

Undersea cables, which are responsible for transmitting vast amounts of internet traffic, play a crucial role in maintaining the connectivity of the modern world. Any damage to these cables can have far-reaching consequences, disrupting communication, trade, and military operations.

In light of these incidents, European nations are stepping up efforts to protect their undersea infrastructure. Sweden, for instance, has recently made moves to veto the construction of several offshore wind farms in the Baltic, citing unacceptable security risks.

Nato has also warned that Russia may be targeting undersea infrastructure as part of a broader campaign of hybrid warfare, which includes cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and physical sabotage.

The ongoing war in Ukraine, coupled with the growing threat of hybrid warfare, has made the security of undersea infrastructure a top priority for Nato and its allies.

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With inputs from agencies