Why Putin’s response to Ukraine’s drone attack may rely on Trump

Ukraine’s surprise drone attack on multiple Russian air bases has left the world, including Moscow, stunned. The assault, described as “the most audacious attack of the war”, came just a few hours before Russia and Ukraine held the second round of peace talks in Turkey on Monday (June 2).

Held in the shadow of the drone attack, there was hardly any progress on ending the war that began in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The two sides agreed to exchange more prisoners of war and return the bodies of 12,000 dead soldiers during the talks in Istanbul.

Now, all eyes are on Russia’s response to Ukraine’s drone attack that Kyiv says hit over 40 warplanes worth billions of dollars.

Let’s take a closer look.

Ukraine’s drone attack ‘embarrasses’ Russia

Ukraine’s weekend drone attack on four Russian air bases damaged or destroyed 41 Russian aircraft, including nuclear-capable Tu-95 and Tu-22M strategic bombers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called the strikes one for the “history books”.

Dubbed “Operation Spider’s Web”, Ukraine’s covert operation is being referred to as Russia’s “ Pearl Harbor ” by some pro-Russia bloggers and military commentators.

As per Kyiv, it smuggled more than 100 drones over the Russian border to hit the targets. Ukraine’s Security Service said first-person view (FPV) drones were used to strike Belaya Air Base in the Irkutsk region of Siberia, over 4,000 kilometres from Ukraine.

The attack deep inside Russian territory caught Moscow off guard and exposed its vulnerabilities. Ukraine claims to have destroyed 34 per cent of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers with damages estimated at $7 billion.

George Beebe, a former director of Russia analysis at the US’ Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), told Foreign Policy that the drone strikes were “embarrassing” for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Clearly, there were security lapses on the Russian side that allowed this to happen. Border security, for example. The Ukrainians brought these drones deep into Russian territory by sending them across the Russian border. Russian border inspectors failed to catch this, and that is an embarrassing lapse,” Beebe said.

How Russia could respond

Ukraine’s daring attack would have rattled Moscow. While the coverage of the attack has been limited in Russia, pro-Russian bloggers are using the drone strikes to justify a nuclear attack on Ukraine.

Dva Mayora or “Two Majors”, a popular Russian channel, said it was “a reason to launch nuclear strikes on Ukraine”, as per Sky News.

Russian political analyst Sergei Markov told Kremlin-backed newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets that it is a ground for a nuclear response by Russia.

Pro-Russian Telegram channel Fighterbomb said the day of Ukraine’s large-scale drone attack will “later be called a black day for Russian long-range aviation,” and noted “the day is not over yet”.

On Russia’s reaction, Keir Giles, from the London-based think tank Chatham House, told Newsweek to “expect a great deal of sound and fury”.

Moscow could now retaliate further to Ukraine’s drone attack. “We should expect a repetition of Russia’s standard practice of presenting air and missile bombardment of Ukrainian cities as ‘retaliation’ for the attacks over the weekend, even though in reality these strikes are planned long in advance,” Giles said.

The drone attack could push President Putin away from the negotiating table. Speaking to Newsweek, Vuk Vuksanovic, associate at LSE IDEAS, The London School of Economics think tank, said that Ukraine has bagged its “greatest tactical success” since the war started in 2022, which means Moscow does not have any “incentives left to agree to a ceasefire”.

He said Moscow will not capitulate to Ukraine’s demand for Nato membership and territories it claims to have annexed.

Experts say that Russia’s response will depend on United States President Donald Trump, who has been pressing for a peace deal between the warring nations.

It is not a given that Russia’s response will be escalatory, Beebe told Foreign Policy, adding that, however, it is a “difficult issue” for Moscow.

“The Ukrainians are crossing a red line with Russia’s nuclear force that the Russians have clearly drawn. The Ukrainians knew they [the Russians] drew it, and now they [the Ukrainians have] have done it.

And the question is, what do the Russians do to respond to this? Do they do nothing? My guess is that what they do is going to be conditioned heavily by how the Trump administration handles this.”

What will Trump do?

Trump has not yet reacted to Ukraine’s audacious attack. According to Beebe, it has to be seen whether the US president reaches out and convices Putin that America was not “involved in or supported [the drone assault] and not something that we want to see happen again, and reassure the Russians that we are indeed sincerely interested in a genuine compromise settlement of this war that brings it to a stable conclusion?”

He said that Russia could respond “quite forcefully” until Putin gets assurance from Trump that the US is against Ukraine’s drone attack deep inside Russian territory.

Beebe also warned that if Russia chooses to attack quite forcefully, it is likely to draw America into the conflict — a scenario that Trump would want to avoid at all costs.

With inputs from agencies