How UK’s ‘murder prediction’ tool could predict who might kill in future

The UK government is developing a “murder prediction” tool to identify individuals most likely to commit the crime in the future.

The country’s Ministry of Justice is partnering with academic researchers on a pilot programme to create this predictive system.

ALSO READ | No city for superrich: Why millionaires are fleeing London

Authorities said that the work is still at an early stage and draws only from the records of those who already have at least one criminal conviction.

In this report, we explore what is currently known about the initiative and how it might assist in identifying people who could go on to carry out serious violent crimes.

More from Explainers

Everyone Hates Elon: London art project becomes outlet for Musk's critics to release anger by smashing Tesla Why it is not a good idea to take Dolo-650 like it’s ‘Cadbury Gems’

What is the UK’s “murder prediction” tool?

This is a system that aims to predict who may go on to commit serious violent offences, including murder, by examining information held by police and probation services.

According to The Guardian, researchers are said to be using algorithms to examine the records of thousands of individuals, including crime victims, to pinpoint those most likely to carry out such offences.

The scheme was first named the “homicide prediction project”, but has since been renamed to “sharing data to improve risk assessment”, the report said.

The Ministry of Justice believes the project could support efforts to improve public safety. But campaigners have warned it might result in people being profiled based on sensitive personal details, including mental health issues, self-harm and domestic abuse history.

Impact Shorts

More Shorts

Ghaziabad woman dead, pilgrims attacked in bus… How Nepal’s Gen-Z protests turned into a living hell for Indian tourists

Were bodyguards involved in Charlie Kirk’s shooting? The many conspiracies surrounding the killing

The MoJ said that the project would “review offender characteristics that increase the risk of committing homicide” and “explore alternative and innovative data science techniques to risk assessment of homicide,” according to The Telegraph UK.

A spokesperson added that the work would “provide evidence towards improving risk assessment of serious crime, and ultimately contribute to protecting the public via better analysis”.

The project was authorised by the prime minister’s office during Rishi Sunak’s tenure. It draws on official crime records, including data from the Probation Service and Greater Manchester Police before 2015.

ALSO READ | ‘Squeaky Blinders’: How rats bigger than cats are running riot in UK’s Birmingham

Why are some people concerned about the tool?

The project came to light through Statewatch, which uncovered details using Freedom of Information requests.

Statewatch has raised concerns that the system will involve personal data from individuals who have never been convicted of a crime. This includes sensitive details such as incidents of self-harm and experiences related to domestic abuse.

However, officials have firmly denied this, stating that the project only uses information from individuals with at least one conviction.

The data reportedly being analysed includes basic identifiers like name, date of birth, gender, and ethnicity, along with a unique police national computer number.

According to The Guardian, Statewatch’s concerns are drawn from a section of the data-sharing agreement between the Ministry of Justice and Greater Manchester Police.

It shows the police may share a range of data with the government – not just about convictions, but also about people’s first interactions with police, including as victims of domestic violence.

Sofia Lyall, a researcher at Statewatch, defined the project as “the ­latest chilling and dystopian example of the government’s intent to develop so-called crime prediction systems”.

She told the UK daily, “Time and again, research shows that algorithmic systems for ‘predicting’ crime are inherently flawed. This latest model, which uses data from our institution­ally racist police and Home Office, will reinforce and magnify the structural discrimination underpinning the criminal legal system.

“Like other systems of its kind, it will code in bias towards racialised and low-income communities. Building an ­automated tool to profile people as violent criminals is deeply wrong, and ­using such sensitive data on mental health, addiction and disability is highly intrusive and alarming.”

The Ministry of Justice denied using data from victims or individuals without convictions.

It said in a statement, “This project is being conducted for research purposes only. It has been designed using existing data held by HM Prison and Probation Service and police forces on convicted ­offenders to help us better understand the risk of people on probation going on to commit serious violence. A report will be published in due course.”

Officials state that the prison and probation service already carry out risk assessments, and this research will test whether bringing in new sources of data, including information from the police and custody records, makes the process more accurate.