UK airlines' carbon emissions may touch record highs in 2024; Here's why

The emissions from the aviation sector in the United Kingdom is increasing. The government’s “Jet Zero” strategy to not let emissions surpass 2019 figures is faltering. The amoint of pollutants being released by airlines is quickly approaching pre-pandemic levels.

Carbon dioxide pollution by flights in the UK is particularly alarming. A projection by Transport and Environment (T&E) says these levels may reach a record high in 2024.

We explain some reasons behind the rise in carbon and non-carbon emissions by airlines in the UK.

Travel boom after years of pandemic

There is a marked boom in the demand for air travel in several parts of the world. The UK is no exception. Airline companies’ profits and growing number of flights are a testament to this.

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In February, the owner of British Airways, International Airlines Group, reported record annual profits. The reason? “Sustained” demand for leisure travel at high prices.

The number of flights have also gone up, and are about to reach pre-pandemic levels. In 2023 alone, nearly 940,000 flights departed from UK airports. This is 88 per cent of the 2019 flight numbers.

Last year, the 940,000 flights produced 32 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. That is 89 per cent of the 2019 figure.

Lax enforcement of carbon laws

The UK follows the emissions trading scheme (ETS). This includes a carbon pricing mechanism.

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Under the scheme, airlines must to hold and surrender “allowances” for their emissions. The number of allowances issued each year is capped, with the cap decreasing over time to ensure emissions reductions.

Airlines that emit more than their allocated allowances must purchase additional allowances or face financial penalties. Conversely, airlines that emit less than their allocated allowances can sell their excess allowances, providing an incentive for emissions reduction.

This system of incentives is not working all that well in the UK. According to a recent report by Financial Times, less than a quarter of airline emissions were caught by Europe’s carbon trading schemes last year.

This is because airlines do not have to pay for the vast majority of carbon pollution they are emitting. The amount that airlines pay per tonne of carbon emitted shows a huge range of differences. Wizz Air paid £34.23 per tonne, while surprisingly, Virgin Atlantic paid nothing. The reason for this disparity is that the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) only applies to flights that depart from and arrive at destinations within the UK, European Economic Area or Switzerland.

Inter-continental flights do not have to pay for the emissions they cause. They have little reason, in terms of punitive monetary measures, to reign in emissions.

Rise in emissions from budget airline

The rise in airline emissions in the UK is significantly influenced by the increasing popularity of budget airlines, according to another recent analysis from the T&E. This analysis, which used UK and EU carbon reporting data along with other flight statistics, indicates a clear trend: low-cost carriers are not only recovering from past reductions but are now surpassing previous emission levels.

In 2023, budget airlines like Ryanair, easyJet, and Jet2.com had a big role to play in driving these emission increases. Ryanair’s emissions surged to 15 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, which is 23 per cent higher than their emissions before the COVID-19 pandemic, marking their highest ever.

Similarly, Wizz Air saw a dramatic 40 per cent increase in its emissions compared to 2019. Jet2.com also reported a significant rise, emitting 26.3 per cent more CO2 than in 2019. In contrast, while still the largest overall emitter among UK airlines, British Airways emitted 7.52 million tonnes of CO2 in 2023, a figure that is below their pre-pandemic levels.

The growing carbon footprint of these budget airlines can be attributed to their expanding market presence. In 2023, around 25 per cent of the flights in Europe were operated by one of the three major budget carriers—easyJet, Ryanair, or Wizz Air. This marks an increase from 2019, where these carriers operated roughly 20 per cent of these flights.

This shift towards more frequent use of budget airlines is because of their increasing appeal among consumers, driven by the promise of lower fares. However, the environmental cost of this trend is becoming increasingly apparent, suggesting the need for more robust policy interventions. Proposals include the implementation of a kerosene tax and the expansion of the UK’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to include all flights departing from the UK, aiming to mitigate the environmental impact of these rising emissions.