Trump vs Biden in 2024? How is US heading for a re-match voters didn’t want?

It was yet another big win for Donald Trump. He has marched to victory in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary. This puts the former president in the dominating position to become the Grand Old Party’s (GOP) presidential candidate in November. Trump has made history, becoming the first non-incumbent Republican candidate in the modern era to win both Iowa and New Hampshire . The latest win serves as a big blow to Nikki Haley , Trump’s last remaining rival in the GOP race. However, the former United Nations ambassador has vowed to fight on, saying, “This race is far from over”. But can Haley stop Trump? Or is a Trump vs Biden re-match inevitable? We take a look. Can Nikki Haley dent Trump’s chances in the GOP race? Former president Trump is projected to win the New Hampshire GOP primary. With a majority of the votes counted in the New Hampshire primary, he was leading with 54.6 per cent of the ballot. Nikki Haley trailed with 43.2 per cent, according to CNN. Haley had hoped the Northeastern state’s sizable cadre of independent voters would carry her to an upset win that might loosen Trump’s iron grip on the Republican party. However, the former president swept competitive votes in both Iowa – where he won by a record-setting margin eight days ago – and New Hampshire since 1976, when the two states cemented their status as the first nominating contests. But Haley is not the one to give up. Vowing to carry on she told her supporters at a post-election party in Concord, “This race is far from over… I’m a fighter. And I’m scrappy. And now we’re the last one standing next to Donald Trump.” But does she stand a chance? Or is it a matter of time before she pulls out? [caption id=“attachment_13650052” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Republican presidential candidate and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley speaks at a New Hampshire primary night rally, in Concord. While Haley lost to Trump, she has decided to continue to fight. AP[/caption] Haley spent most of her time (and a lot of campaign money) in Iowa and New Hampshire. Tuesday’s primary was her best chance to shake things up. But Trump has emerged as a strong favourite to win the GOP nomination. Now, Haley has announced a campaign stop in Charleston, South Carolina. Her campaign has announced that it is placing $4 million in television advertising context in the state. South Carolina is Haley’s home state and that is where the next significant primary contest would be held on 24 February. It would be embarrassing if she is defeated there. She also served as the governor of South Carolina and losing there would be hard to recover from. She currently trails recent polls by 30 points. “To protect her future political ambitions, Haley may well choose to retire from this race before she faces Palmetto state voters,” says BBC’s Sarah Smith. Haley can be in the contest as long as she wants. If she doesn’t pull out, after South Carolina the next big test would be Super Tuesday, 5 March. The states conducting elections include Alabama, Arkansas, Alaska, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia, a more conservative territory. If Trump wins these contests by a big margin, it will be nearly impossible to catch up with him. [caption id=“attachment_13650072” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Supporters gather before Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump speaks at a primary election night party in Nashua. AP[/caption] So does that mean it will be a Trump vs Biden contest? Joe Biden’s general election bid has taken shape, as he won the New Hampshire primary. The US president refused to campaign in the state and relied on a write-in campaign by his allies and surrogates to secure a victory. In the Democratic race, Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson are challenging Biden. But Biden’s path to the nomination for a second term is clear, reports CNN. After the win, Biden said, “It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. And my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher.” [caption id=“attachment_13650102” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] US president Joe Biden won the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday night. AP[/caption] How did the US get here? Public polling on the 2024 US presidential race is clear – most Americans do not want a Trump vs Biden rematch . Even before the 2022 midterm elections, 75 per cent of Democratic voters said that they wanted an alternative to Biden. Many said that it was because of his age. The incumbent will turn 82 this November.

Trump has been leading every major national poll. But yet only 45 per cent of Democrats believe he will be the Republican nominee, according to a recent Economist/YouGuv Poll. A majority of undecided voters simply do not seem to believe – at least not yet – that Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee, according to the Biden campaign, CNN reports. No popular Democrat leaders have refused to run against Biden, save for Robert F Kennedy, who dropped his Democratic primary bid and launched an independent run for the White House, and Dean Phillips, who failed to lure voters in New Hampshire. Also read: Joe Biden vs Donald Trump rematch in 2024: Why most Americans have switched off already “A look at the Republican side shows why high-profile Democrats may have been wary of jumping in,” writes David A Graham in The Atlantic. Florida Governor Ron De Santis was once seen as the future of the GOP but the primary may have ended his national ambitions. “Though anti-Trump Republicans pleaded for a one-on-one matchup between Trump and some alternative, he solidly beat Nikki Haley when it finally happened. The simple fact is that Trump remains very popular with the Republicans,” he says. [caption id=“attachment_13650142” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A supporter holds up a sign as President Donald Trump speaks at a primary election night party in Nashua. AP[/caption] So how is America heading toward a contest it does not want? “The most fundamental reason is polarization, and in particular negative polarization—dislike and contempt for the opposite party,” Graham says in The Atlantic article. “Polarization’s effects have been visible throughout the primaries. Historically, one would have expected that Trump’s 91 felony indictments would have hurt his campaign, but instead—as DeSantis supporters lamented—they only helped rally Republicans to him. Biden, meanwhile, has benefited from Democrats concluding that he may be the best candidate to beat Trump once again, despite their misgivings about him.”

That brings the US to a re-match. In 2024, the Republican nominee is most likely a candidate who lost the last election, has been indicted and faces several legal cases. And Democrats are going with a president with consistently low approval ratings. With inputs from agencies