Why Trump is unlikely to win Nobel Peace prize despite nominations from several countries

All eyes are on Norway’s Nobel Committee, as they will announce the Nobel Peace Prize today. This year, this award has garnered more attention than usual — the reason being Donald Trump’s clamouring for it.

The US president has long wanted the honour, even mocking and questioning why his predecessor, Barack Obama received it in the first year of office (it was quite controversial when Obama earned the prestige in 2009). In fact, just hours before the award was to be announced, Trump said to reporters at the Oval Office, “He got it for doing nothing. Obama got a prize - he didn’t even know what - he got elected, and they gave it to Obama for doing absolutely nothing but destroying our country.”

Since stepping into office earlier this year, Trump has on numerous occasions said that he should win the coveted prize since he has, he claims, ended at least “seven wars”. Not just that, as recently as today (October 10), the Israeli Cabinet voted in favour of his Gaza peace plan, allowing for a ceasefire and the release of all hostages held by Hamas.

And it’s not just Trump who has claimed he is the right candidate to win the Nobel Peace prize. Many countries have even nominated him for the award. However, these nominations may not actually matter. Here’s why.

How is a Nobel Peace prize winner selected?

To understand why Trump may not be the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, one has to understand the voting process.

The Nobel prize for peace is selected by a five-member committee, known as the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The members of the committee are elected for a period of six years and can be re-elected. The committee for this year comprises: Jorgen Watne Frydnes, who has spent his career working as a human rights advocate. There’s also 51-year-old Asle Toje, 75-year-old Anne Enger, 68-year-old Kristin Clemet, and Gry Larsen (49).

To be a winner, nominations are made to this committee by individuals or countries. The process of selecting a winner is long and tedious. The Norwegian Nobel Committee opens the window for nominations for the award the previous September. This means to be a winner in 2025, the nomination window opens in September 2024.

This window shuts on the first day of February. According to the rules, nominations postmarked and received after this date are included in the following year’s discussions.

Once all the nominations are collated, a short list is prepared by March-April. Then in October, during Nobel season, the winner is announced by the committee. The decision is final and without appeal.

Speaking on the process, committee member Toje told ABC News, “We do it pretty much the same way that you make a good sauce — you reduce and reduce and reduce.

“The process starts by cutting out names that are spurious or that don’t pique the interest of the members or that don’t clearly coincide with the criteria in the testament. After a series of meetings, we get to the really exciting stuff, and that’s when we’re down to a dozen or so names.”

He further adds, “When we get down to a dozen or so names, we reach out to the world because, whatever you’re interested in, somebody somewhere has written a PhD about it.

“We try to get the best information possible — not because we’re looking to confirm our biases or to look for black marks, but the committee really tends to prefer to know it all, the good and the bad, in order to make an informed decision. We eventually narrow the list down to a very small group, then hold a simple majority vote.”

In Trump’s case, has he been nominated?

The short answer to this is yes, he has been nominated by a US Congress leader as well as many different countries.

In the US, Republican Representative Earl ‘Buddy’ Carter nominated Trump, saying he brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran showing “bold action and courage”. Even Representative Claudia Tenney, representing New York, said that she nominated Trump for his role in brokering the historic Abraham Accords during his first term.

This was followed up by Darrell Issa (California) in March, who said he nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing the president’s efforts in West Asia.

Even countries have joined the Trump Nobel bandwagon. Pakistan announced that it would nominate Trump for a Nobel after diplomatic interactions during the May conflict between India and Pakistan ended in a ceasefire; the Pakistan government described the nomination as recognising his “decisive diplomatic intervention and pivotal leadership”.

Then Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented Trump with a letter he said he had sent to the Nobel Committee nominating the president for the prize.

Furthermore, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet also announced that he nominated Trump after a July ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand that ended a five-day long clash between Thai and Cambodian forces at their long disputed border in July. The skirmish left more than 40 people dead on both sides and forced some 300,000 to flee.

“[Trump’s] consistent pursuit of peace through diplomacy aligns perfectly with Alfred Nobel’s vision, honouring those who have made outstanding contributions to international fraternity and the advancement of peace,” said Manet.

The countries of Armenia and Azerbaijan also backed a Nobel for Trump. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev were quoted as saying, “I think President Trump deserves to have the Nobel Peace Prize. And we will defend that, we will promote for that.”

Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe and Gabonese President Brice Oligui Nguema also both publicly endorsed the idea of awarding Trump the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in helping to end a decades-long conflict between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

And following the Israeli Cabinet approving the first phase of Trump’s peace plan on October 10, even Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi jumped on Trump’s Nobel bandwagon, saying he deserved it.

So, what’s the glitch in Trump winning the award?

But despite all of these individuals and countries pushing for Trump to win the Nobel Peace prize, the US president’s chances remain slim.

That’s because the nominations by Pakistan, Cambodia and Israel were made after the deadline of February 1 deadline, making them invalid for consideration this year. For instance, Pakistan’s nomination for Trump to be given the Nobel Peace Prize came in June. Similarly, Cambodia’s nomination was submitted in August, way after the window closed.

Netanyahu also nominated Trump for the award in July, citing America’s role in striking Iran’s nuclear programme and brokering the ceasefire that ended the fighting between the long-time adversaries.

The only valid nomination, as far as we can tell, is that of New York Congresswoman Claudia Tenney, citing Trump’s leadership in establishing the Abraham Accords.

Hence, Trump’s best chance to win the Nobel Peace Prize isn’t this year, but the next — 2026.

But does Trump truly deserve the Nobel Peace prize?

It depends on who you ask. If you ask Trump or his supporters, the answer is a resounding yes. After all, the US president credits himself for ending seven wars , including the hostilities between India and Pakistan in early May. This claim has come under a cloud of doubt, with many pointing that Trump has participated in many of the wars he claimed to have ended.

Many Israelis are also calling for Trump to receive the Nobel for his 20-point peace plan of which phase one has been agreed upon. This will allow for the hostages to be freed and a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

But there are many others who note that Trump isn’t a serious contender for the honour. That’s because Nobel veterans say the committee prioritises sustained, multilateral efforts over quick diplomatic wins.

Theo Zenou, a historian and research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, said Trump’s efforts have not yet been proven to be long-lasting. “There’s a huge difference between getting fighting to stop in the short-term and resolving the root causes of the conflict,” Zenou said to the Associated Press.

He further highlighted Trump’s dismissive stance on climate change as out-of-step with what many, including the Nobel committee, see as the planet’s greatest long-term peace challenge.

Moreover, Trump has also chosen the path of isolation. He has signed executive orders withdrawing the US from the World Health Organization , the Paris climate accord, and international tax agreements. These decisions reflect a shift away from multilateral engagement and stand in contrast to Alfred Nobel’s vision. In his will, he emphasised promoting “fraternity between nations”—a principle later interpreted as support for international cooperation, particularly through the UN, whose agencies have received multiple Peace Prizes over the years.

For now, it’s because of this that Trump may miss out on the award he covets the most, but the situation could look quite different this time next year.

With inputs from agencies